FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

NTRA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 10 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-09 → 2023-11-01

⚠️ Small sample size (10 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Natera, Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-MEDICAL LABORATORIES (SIC 8071)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 02, 2015 🔗 www.natera.com
💰 Market Cap: $33.69B 👥 Employees: 4,434
Natera Inc is a diagnostic and research company with proprietary molecular and bioinformatics technology. The company's key product offerings include its Panorama Non-Invasive Prenatal Test (NIPT) which screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus as well as in twin pregnancies, typically with a blood draw from the mother, Horizon Carrier Screening (HCS) to determine carrier status for a large number of severe genetic diseases that could be passed on to the carrier's children, Signatera molecular residual disease (MRD) test, which detects circulating tumor DNA in patients previously diagnosed with cancer to assess molecular residual disease and monitor for recurrence; and Prospera, to assess organ transplant rejection.
📊
10
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-1.66%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.78%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -0.26%
Avg Winner: +1.11%
Avg Loser: -0.85%
Best: +2.30%
Worst: -1.43%
Trades: 3/7

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.75%
Avg Winner: +2.99%
Avg Loser: -2.94%
Best: +5.51%
Worst: -4.10%
Trades: 2/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -0.63%
Avg Winner: +3.81%
Avg Loser: -2.54%
Best: +5.49%
Worst: -4.06%
Trades: 3/7

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -1.66%
Avg Winner: +1.72%
Avg Loser: -3.91%
Best: +4.81%
Worst: -5.89%
Trades: 4/6

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -2.89%
Avg Winner: +1.08%
Avg Loser: -4.59%
Best: +1.91%
Worst: -18.85%
Trades: 3/7

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.78%
Best MFE: +10.02%
Avg Time to MFE: 64 min

On average, NTRA alerts reach +2.78% profit potential within 64 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.41%
Worst MAE: -5.17%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.41%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.97:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 10 alerts, NTRA typically reaches +2.78% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 10
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.23%
Best Gap +0.84%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MEDICAL LABORATORIES

How NTRA compares to 18 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
NTRA: -0.26% Sector: -0.18% -0.09%
EOD Gain
NTRA: -2.89% Sector: +911658.96% -911661.84%
Avg MFE
NTRA: +2.78% Sector: +11.20% -8.43%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NTRA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-11-01 09:29:00 $39.47 -1.43% -2.96% -2.56% -1.93% +0.56% +0.67% -3.72% -1.49% LOSS
2023-09-07 09:28:00 $56.06 +0.51% +0.46% -1.55% +0.73% -1.44% +1.66% -0.09% +0.54% WIN
2022-11-16 09:25:00 $36.45 +2.30% +5.51% +4.44% +4.81% +0.77% +8.81% -0.60% +0.58% WIN
2022-09-29 09:25:00 $46.05 -0.85% -3.08% -3.85% -5.45% -3.43% -0.73% -1.32% -1.32% LOSS
2022-08-18 09:25:00 $52.94 -0.74% -2.21% -2.42% -2.87% -1.72% -0.09% -0.74% -0.21% LOSS
2022-08-16 09:25:00 $57.11 -0.89% -3.52% -4.06% -5.67% -3.48% -0.35% -2.26% -0.89% LOSS
2022-04-22 09:25:00 $36.65 -0.83% -0.90% +1.50% +0.38% -0.98% +3.63% -1.88% -1.39% LOSS
2022-03-15 09:25:00 $31.0 +0.52% -4.10% -2.06% -1.68% -2.19% +1.61% -0.10% +0.81% WIN
2022-03-10 09:25:00 $41.81 -0.24% -3.43% +5.49% +0.97% +1.91% +10.02% -5.17% +0.84% LOSS
2022-03-09 09:25:00 $45.35 -0.97% -3.32% -1.26% -5.89% -18.85% +2.54% +1.78% +0.22% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NTRA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -1.66% average gain, NTRA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider NTRA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze NTRA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NTRA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NTRA historically offers an average upside of +2.78% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NTRA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, NTRA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests NTRA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NTRA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -1.66%). This suggests NTRA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.