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NUGT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 204 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2025-01-16

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Dec 08, 2010
📊
204
Total Alerts
🎯
52.9%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.14%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+2.83%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.1%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -0.78%
Best: +3.44%
Worst: -2.98%
Trades: 90/114

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.5%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.50%
Avg Loser: -1.48%
Best: +5.19%
Worst: -7.55%
Trades: 101/101

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.9%
Avg Gain: +0.14%
Avg Winner: +1.73%
Avg Loser: -1.66%
Best: +5.17%
Worst: -5.98%
Trades: 108/95

60MIN

Win Rate: 52.5%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.15%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +6.37%
Worst: -7.80%
Trades: 107/97

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.5%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +2.96%
Avg Loser: -2.79%
Best: +10.60%
Worst: -10.60%
Trades: 103/101

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.83%
Best MFE: +12.75%
Avg Time to MFE: 112 min

On average, NUGT alerts reach +2.83% profit potential within 112 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.04%
Worst MAE: -5.41%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.04%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.72:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.72x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 204 alerts, NUGT typically reaches +2.83% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 204
Gap Up % 52.9%
Avg Gap +0.02%
Best Gap +1.47%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NUGT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-16 09:26:47 $41.28 +0.61% +1.04% +0.85% +0.63% -1.53% +1.41% -0.05% +0.17% WIN
2024-12-09 09:27:57 $43.9 +0.66% +2.16% +2.87% +3.40% -0.71% +4.12% -0.18% -0.18% WIN
2024-11-25 09:29:29 $41.76 +0.74% +0.10% +0.69% +0.48% +0.77% +1.27% -1.29% -0.24% WIN
2024-11-19 09:27:51 $43.02 -0.65% -0.26% -1.37% -1.00% +2.09% +2.14% -1.60% -0.09% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:29:34 $38.15 +1.31% +1.06% +1.07% +3.01% +2.65% +3.93% -0.45% +0.31% WIN
2024-11-11 09:29:14 $42.91 -0.49% -0.35% -1.40% -2.42% -3.50% +2.20% -0.68% -0.47% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:27:40 $45.1 -1.00% +0.84% +0.71% +3.17% +2.48% +4.12% -3.68% -0.29% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:29:11 $37.83 -1.51% -0.24% +0.45% +2.34% +6.08% +7.67% -2.88% +0.18% LOSS
2024-06-07 09:25:12 $40.5 -1.81% -3.73% -4.52% -3.75% -7.95% -0.42% -0.99% -1.21% LOSS
2024-05-28 09:29:02 $43.45 -0.55% -0.37% -0.83% -0.99% -0.05% +0.85% -1.93% - LOSS
2024-05-20 09:26:14 $45.76 +0.55% -1.49% -0.31% +0.00% +1.62% +2.86% -2.19% +0.26% WIN
2024-04-30 09:29:52 $38.71 -0.32% +0.54% -0.31% -1.37% -4.00% +1.08% -1.55% -0.10% LOSS
2024-04-26 09:29:34 $40.71 +0.29% -0.44% -0.07% -0.12% -0.39% +1.65% +0.14% +0.20% WIN
2024-04-25 09:25:08 $37.29 -0.78% -0.08% +0.04% +1.66% +7.00% +8.18% -1.18% -0.16% LOSS
2024-04-23 09:26:59 $35.44 +0.90% +2.34% +4.37% +4.43% +4.71% +5.28% -0.62% -0.06% WIN
2024-04-22 09:27:23 $36.37 -1.04% -0.14% +1.37% +2.28% -1.10% +3.08% -1.70% -0.33% LOSS
2024-04-17 09:27:00 $37.8 +2.09% +2.70% +2.88% +2.67% +1.56% +3.86% -0.34% +0.19% WIN
2024-04-16 09:25:56 $37.47 -0.96% -3.95% -3.23% -3.42% -0.69% +0.67% -4.35% -0.21% LOSS
2024-04-15 09:28:10 $39.9 -1.52% -4.26% -3.46% -6.39% -4.04% -0.35% -0.88% -0.88% LOSS
2024-04-12 09:25:41 $42.07 -0.62% -0.14% +1.90% +1.80% -7.46% +3.59% -0.97% -0.17% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 52.9% Baseline on NUGT

The 52.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NUGT's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NUGT Strategy →

Why Analyze NUGT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NUGT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NUGT historically offers an average upside of +2.83% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NUGT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.9%, NUGT shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NUGT performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.14%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.