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NVD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 211 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-02-06 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 22, 2023
📊
211
Total Alerts
🎯
62.6%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+852.13%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+4.49%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.2%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.11%
Avg Loser: -1.14%
Best: +3.77%
Worst: -4.26%
Trades: 106/99

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.6%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +2.09%
Avg Loser: -1.67%
Best: +9.38%
Worst: -5.63%
Trades: 92/116

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.6%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +2.52%
Avg Loser: -2.08%
Best: +10.22%
Worst: -9.60%
Trades: 92/115

60MIN

Win Rate: 49.5%
Avg Gain: +0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.90%
Avg Loser: -2.74%
Best: +12.81%
Worst: -9.93%
Trades: 104/105

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.6%
Avg Gain: +852.13%
Avg Winner: +1364.58%
Avg Loser: -4.40%
Best: +2787.56%
Worst: -14.16%
Trades: 132/74

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.49%
Best MFE: +20.21%
Avg Time to MFE: 107 min

On average, NVD alerts reach +4.49% profit potential within 107 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.40%
Worst MAE: -6.06%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.40%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.22:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.22x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 211 alerts, NVD typically reaches +4.49% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 211
Gap Up % 38.9%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +1.22%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:20 $24.72 -1.13% -0.40% -1.13% -2.63% -3.92% +0.77% -2.06% -0.45% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:18 $26.48 -1.66% -1.74% -3.36% -4.64% -5.55% +0.52% -0.05% +0.23% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:29:25 $27.12 -1.22% -2.75% -2.80% -1.94% -1.62% +1.35% +0.04% +0.26% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:25:39 $26.23 +0.14% -2.67% -3.05% -1.98% -0.92% +1.75% -3.20% -0.48% WIN
2025-02-10 09:27:50 $27.14 -1.88% -4.99% -5.31% -6.67% -5.23% +0.41% - +0.29% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:27:40 $27.69 -1.42% -1.81% -1.30% -0.58% -1.63% +1.95% -2.20% -0.33% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:25:25 $28.63 +0.24% +1.99% +0.61% +0.70% -3.04% +2.71% -1.05% -0.63% WIN
2025-02-05 09:28:58 $31.3 -0.61% -0.42% -1.18% -1.02% -5.72% +1.76% -1.41% -0.06% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:28:57 $34.05 -1.67% -2.80% -4.08% -5.17% -3.14% +0.29% -0.32% -0.18% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:25:27 $35.41 +1.16% +0.73% +0.82% -2.51% -3.53% +2.09% -0.62% -0.51% WIN
2025-01-31 09:25:21 $30.28 +0.89% -0.23% -0.36% -2.38% +6.80% +8.16% -5.65% +0.73% WIN
2025-01-30 09:25:26 $30.69 +0.29% +2.66% +1.09% +4.51% -2.25% +8.60% -1.08% +0.62% WIN
2025-01-29 09:29:44 $29.37 -0.11% +1.11% +1.80% +3.27% +3.75% +9.47% -0.58% -0.03% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:25:31 $32.08 +3.65% +9.38% +5.83% +1.56% -11.91% +10.94% -0.72% +1.03% WIN
2025-01-27 09:27:17 $31.91 -2.79% -0.28% -1.88% +1.50% +7.40% +9.46% -3.62% +0.28% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:27:28 $23.73 +0.59% +1.56% +0.91% +2.99% +8.01% +9.06% -0.67% +0.25% WIN
2025-01-23 09:29:48 $24.84 +0.68% -0.42% -0.74% -0.32% -2.86% +1.63% - - WIN
2025-01-22 09:29:45 $25.03 +0.40% -3.72% -2.52% -2.88% -3.52% +1.40% -0.04% - WIN
2025-01-16 09:26:18 $27.48 +0.45% - +1.16% +1.66% +7.50% +7.51% -0.47% -0.15% WIN
2025-01-15 09:25:57 $29.41 +1.12% +1.23% +1.73% -0.58% -3.43% +4.22% - +0.07% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.6% Baseline on NVD

The 62.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NVD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NVD Strategy →

Why Analyze NVD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVD historically offers an average upside of +4.49% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.6%, NVD shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NVD performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +852.13%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.