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NVDD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 60 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-02-22 → 2025-02-12

⚠️ Small sample size (60 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 13, 2023
📊
60
Total Alerts
🎯
43.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.04%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.97%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 43.3%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.75%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: +2.05%
Worst: -1.62%
Trades: 26/27

15MIN

Win Rate: 31.7%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +1.32%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +4.90%
Worst: -2.83%
Trades: 19/37

30MIN

Win Rate: 28.3%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.54%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +3.27%
Worst: -5.43%
Trades: 17/42

60MIN

Win Rate: 36.7%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.44%
Avg Loser: -1.46%
Best: +5.25%
Worst: -5.13%
Trades: 22/36

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 35.0%
Avg Gain: -0.72%
Avg Winner: +2.29%
Avg Loser: -2.40%
Best: +6.97%
Worst: -6.99%
Trades: 21/38

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.97%
Best MFE: +9.08%
Avg Time to MFE: 94 min

On average, NVDD alerts reach +1.97% profit potential within 94 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.74%
Worst MAE: -3.48%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.74%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.66:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.66x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 60 alerts, NVDD typically reaches +1.97% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 60
Gap Up % 28.3%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +0.60%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVDD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:29:56 $6.32 -0.47% -1.27% -0.90% -0.78% -0.47% +0.79% +0.16% +0.16% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:27:08 $6.23 -0.15% -1.12% -1.44% -0.96% -0.32% +0.88% -1.61% -0.16% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:28:59 $7.07 -0.78% -1.40% -2.12% -2.48% -1.41% +0.21% -0.14% - LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:12 $7.22 - - -0.14% -1.11% -1.80% +1.04% -0.28% -0.28% -
2025-01-31 09:29:12 $6.67 +0.30% - -0.67% -1.65% +3.30% +3.90% -3.00% +0.45% WIN
2025-01-29 09:27:56 $6.55 +0.32% +1.07% +0.61% +1.83% +1.98% +4.82% -0.15% - WIN
2025-01-28 09:27:50 $6.83 +2.05% +4.90% +2.63% +0.59% -5.86% +5.06% -0.15% -0.15% WIN
2025-01-27 09:28:39 $6.78 -1.62% -1.33% -1.33% +0.52% +3.83% +5.09% -2.21% -0.15% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:25:19 $5.79 - +1.09% +0.52% +1.47% +4.32% +4.66% - +0.35% -
2025-01-23 09:26:09 $5.94 +0.42% -0.17% -0.17% - -1.52% +0.59% -0.17% -0.17% WIN
2025-01-22 09:29:25 $5.94 -0.30% -1.51% -1.01% -1.03% -1.52% +0.84% +0.17% +0.17% LOSS
2025-01-14 09:26:11 $6.34 +0.60% +0.24% +1.58% +2.05% +3.15% +4.57% -0.30% -0.16% WIN
2025-01-13 09:25:08 $6.63 -1.06% -0.53% -1.59% -0.91% -2.26% +0.15% -1.21% - LOSS
2025-01-10 09:29:36 $6.29 +1.11% +0.85% +1.78% +0.82% +0.95% +2.07% -0.16% -0.16% WIN
2025-01-08 09:28:55 $6.05 +0.33% +0.08% -0.33% +1.42% +1.65% +3.39% -0.99% +0.17% WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:33 $5.85 -0.34% -1.03% -0.77% -2.56% -1.03% - -0.26% -0.34% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:29:36 $6.79 +0.30% +0.15% -0.15% -2.21% -4.12% +1.03% -0.29% -0.15% WIN
2024-12-18 09:29:11 $6.56 -0.00% -1.07% -0.76% -1.22% +3.96% +4.50% -2.29% +0.15% LOSS
2024-12-17 09:26:18 $6.82 - -0.15% +0.58% +1.17% -1.17% +1.46% -0.51% - -
2024-12-09 09:28:35 $6.33 +0.62% - -0.42% +0.24% +0.16% +1.34% -0.63% +0.16% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 43.3% Baseline on NVDD

The 43.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NVDD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NVDD Strategy →

Why Analyze NVDD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVDD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVDD historically offers an average upside of +1.97% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVDD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.3%, NVDD shows choppy price action, requiring strict filters or quick profit-taking.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NVDD performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.04%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.