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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$NVDL

Trade-Ideas alerts 51.3% at 15-min n=431 2023-05-25 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 12, 2022
Total alerts
431
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 15MIN
51.3%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 15MIN
-0.06%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+3.30%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading NVDL on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: -0.11%
Avg Winner: +0.87%
Avg Loser: -0.97%
Best: +4.70%
Worst: -4.69%
Trades: 201/230

15MIN

Win Rate: 51.3%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.49%
Avg Loser: -1.68%
Best: +6.94%
Worst: -8.33%
Trades: 221/210

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.6%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +1.87%
Avg Loser: -2.10%
Best: +16.70%
Worst: -9.47%
Trades: 218/213

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: -0.18%
Avg Winner: +2.34%
Avg Loser: -2.51%
Best: +17.46%
Worst: -12.93%
Trades: 207/224

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: -4.86%
Avg Winner: +3.41%
Avg Loser: -12.44%
Best: +19.31%
Worst: -85.93%
Trades: 206/225

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.30%
Best MFE: +26.55%
Avg Time to MFE: 131 min

On average, NVDL alerts reach +3.30% profit potential within 131 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.43%
Worst MAE: -13.98%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.43%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.3:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.3x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 431 alerts, NVDL typically reaches +3.30% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 431
Gap Up % 48.0%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +2.14%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVDL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $39.14 -0.52% +0.10% +1.02% +1.35% -1.64% +1.56% -1.56% +0.04% LOSS
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $37.49 -1.65% +0.01% +0.50% -0.91% +0.08% +1.23% -2.29% -0.88% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $37.01 +0.08% +1.32% +1.30% +1.62% -0.81% +2.67% -0.35% +0.05% WIN
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $37.35 +0.54% -0.19% +0.12% -0.08% -2.57% +2.17% -0.08% +0.59% WIN
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $37.14 +0.98% +2.64% +1.86% +1.47% -0.65% +3.07% -0.67% +0.09% WIN
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $35.77 -0.08% +0.11% +0.08% -1.27% -0.14% +1.48% -0.48% -0.08% LOSS
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $34.97 +0.14% +0.13% -0.14% -0.34% +1.69% +2.00% -1.37% -0.46% WIN
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $36.73 +0.19% +0.03% -0.26% -2.10% -2.18% +0.72% -0.54% -0.11% WIN
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $36.28 +1.10% +1.54% +0.59% +1.24% +1.87% +2.94% -1.02% +0.19% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $35.12 -0.74% +0.78% +1.28% +0.56% +3.93% +4.95% -1.17% -0.03% LOSS
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $33.87 -0.55% +0.56% +0.80% +1.01% +2.95% +3.45% -0.74% +0.24% LOSS
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $33.78 -0.58% -0.30% +0.12% +0.97% +0.77% +1.26% -1.18% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $32.47 -0.40% -0.28% +0.65% +0.85% -0.25% +2.42% -0.74% +0.05% LOSS
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $32.23 -0.03% -0.03% -0.03% -0.68% -1.12% +0.56% -0.68% +0.06% LOSS
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $31.99 -1.87% -3.12% -1.65% -2.19% -1.37% +0.35% -3.30% -1.15% LOSS
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $34.59 -0.23% -0.67% +0.60% +0.81% -2.29% +1.13% -1.51% +0.49% LOSS
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $34.62 -0.14% -1.50% -3.16% -1.79% -2.20% +0.38% -0.14% -0.12% LOSS
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $36.0 +0.25% +0.35% -0.50% -0.33% -1.31% +0.81% -0.61% -0.01% WIN
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $38.46 +0.81% -1.73% -2.65% -4.06% -5.93% +0.81% -0.29% +0.39% WIN
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $38.09 -1.22% +1.63% +2.44% +2.18% -1.05% +2.70% -1.47% -0.50% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ NVDL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.3% win rate, NVDL has -0.06% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve win size or reduce loss size, making NVDL profitable.

🔧 Fix NVDL Risk / Reward →

Why Analyze NVDL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVDL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVDL historically offers an average upside of +3.30% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVDL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.3%, NVDL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.68%) outweigh average wins (+1.49%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NVDL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.06%). This suggests NVDL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.