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NVDL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 265 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-05-25 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

GraniteShares ETF Trust GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Dec 13, 2022
📊
265
Total Alerts
🎯
52.8%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.06%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+3.64%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.1%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -1.09%
Best: +4.70%
Worst: -4.69%
Trades: 130/135

15MIN

Win Rate: 52.8%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +1.61%
Avg Loser: -1.94%
Best: +6.94%
Worst: -8.33%
Trades: 140/125

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.3%
Avg Gain: -0.08%
Avg Winner: +2.07%
Avg Loser: -2.34%
Best: +16.70%
Worst: -9.47%
Trades: 136/129

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +2.61%
Avg Loser: -2.79%
Best: +17.46%
Worst: -12.93%
Trades: 129/136

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -7.71%
Avg Winner: +3.81%
Avg Loser: -18.15%
Best: +19.31%
Worst: -85.93%
Trades: 126/139

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.64%
Best MFE: +26.55%
Avg Time to MFE: 134 min

On average, NVDL alerts reach +3.64% profit potential within 134 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.63%
Worst MAE: -13.98%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.63%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.24:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.24x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 265 alerts, NVDL typically reaches +3.64% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 265
Gap Up % 49.4%
Avg Gap +0.00%
Best Gap +2.14%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVDL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:54 $62.54 +0.28% +0.08% +0.57% +2.41% +3.39% +4.01% -1.18% +0.02% WIN
2025-02-13 09:26:40 $58.56 +0.89% +1.14% +3.03% +4.42% +5.04% +7.05% -0.97% -0.51% WIN
2025-02-12 09:27:34 $57.39 -0.24% +1.62% +2.00% +1.45% +0.89% +2.74% -2.21% -0.68% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:27:06 $59.06 +0.20% +2.27% +2.29% +2.03% +0.69% +3.27% -0.49% +0.24% WIN
2025-02-10 09:28:58 $57.14 +2.68% +5.14% +5.88% +6.62% +5.20% +7.53% -0.17% -0.05% WIN
2025-02-07 09:26:31 $56.25 +0.98% +1.67% +1.01% +0.39% +1.16% +2.04% -0.37% +0.25% WIN
2025-02-06 09:25:31 $54.71 -0.97% -2.40% -1.18% -1.43% +2.23% +2.36% -2.94% +0.46% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:49 $50.11 +1.08% -0.49% +0.56% +0.94% +5.49% +5.49% -1.26% +0.42% WIN
2025-02-04 09:26:08 $46.27 +0.44% +2.64% +4.88% +5.88% +3.41% +7.72% - +0.52% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:37 $44.68 -0.56% -0.45% +0.04% +1.95% +3.49% +7.01% -3.04% +0.09% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:26:25 $52.57 +0.38% +1.18% +0.44% +2.77% -6.73% +5.86% -1.60% -0.59% WIN
2025-01-30 09:25:52 $52.0 -0.17% -2.88% -1.90% -5.06% +1.58% +2.38% -8.62% -0.63% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:29:36 $54.68 +0.17% -1.23% -1.91% -3.66% -4.37% +0.59% -0.29% +0.04% WIN
2025-01-28 09:27:08 $51.71 -4.69% -8.33% -5.36% -1.49% +10.00% +10.13% -9.98% -1.30% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:27:06 $55.14 +4.70% +0.67% +3.55% -2.21% -12.21% +6.18% -2.38% -0.40% WIN
2025-01-24 09:26:58 $79.47 -0.91% -1.77% -1.13% -3.13% -8.00% +0.44% -0.57% -0.38% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:26:48 $75.28 -0.70% +0.58% +0.57% +0.65% +3.56% +3.61% -1.25% +0.54% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:27:39 $75.72 +0.37% +2.07% +2.39% +2.17% +2.84% +3.86% -1.56% -0.26% WIN
2025-01-21 09:27:24 $69.97 -0.81% -0.53% -0.13% -1.10% +2.30% +3.76% -2.96% +0.03% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:25:41 $66.73 -0.10% +0.36% +1.56% +0.98% +2.77% +3.85% -0.52% +1.03% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NVDL Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 52.8% win rate, NVDL has -0.06% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making NVDL profitable.

🔧 Fix NVDL Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze NVDL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVDL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVDL historically offers an average upside of +3.64% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVDL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.8%, NVDL shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.94%) outweigh average wins (+1.61%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NVDL shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.06%). This suggests NVDL is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.