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NVS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 85 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-01 → 2025-02-13

⚠️ Small sample size (85 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Novartis AG
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Nov 07, 1996 🔗 www.novartis.com
💰 Market Cap: $286.13B 👥 Employees: 75,883
Novartis develops and manufactures innovative drugs. Key areas of drug development include oncology, rare diseases, neuroscience, immunology, respiratory, cardio-metabolic, and established medicines. The company sells its products globally, with the United States comprising close to one third of total revenue.
📊
85
Total Alerts
🎯
51.8%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.00%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.58%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.7%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.15%
Avg Loser: -0.17%
Best: +0.77%
Worst: -0.81%
Trades: 38/46

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.34%
Avg Loser: -0.30%
Best: +1.34%
Worst: -1.09%
Trades: 34/49

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.5%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.36%
Avg Loser: -0.33%
Best: +1.64%
Worst: -1.24%
Trades: 37/48

60MIN

Win Rate: 51.8%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.38%
Avg Loser: -0.41%
Best: +1.62%
Worst: -1.10%
Trades: 44/41

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.8%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.59%
Avg Loser: -0.69%
Best: +1.78%
Worst: -3.24%
Trades: 44/41

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.58%
Best MFE: +2.51%
Avg Time to MFE: 141 min

On average, NVS alerts reach +0.58% profit potential within 141 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.26%
Worst MAE: -1.33%
Avg Time to MAE: 24 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.26%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.2:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.2x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 85 alerts, NVS typically reaches +0.58% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 85
Gap Up % 48.2%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +0.25%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NVS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-13 09:26:05 $107.05 -0.09% -0.40% -0.08% +0.37% +0.62% +0.97% -0.53% -0.08% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:28:32 $106.56 -0.10% +0.06% -0.08% +0.31% +0.41% +0.88% -0.19% - LOSS
2025-02-11 09:25:42 $106.63 +0.20% -0.07% +0.13% +0.38% +1.05% +1.27% -0.19% -0.02% WIN
2024-10-29 09:25:03 $111.69 +0.03% +0.41% +0.72% -0.22% -1.04% +0.97% -0.26% +0.11% WIN
2024-07-18 09:26:15 $108.14 -0.81% -0.19% -0.47% -0.29% -0.85% +0.14% -1.13% -0.31% LOSS
2024-07-11 09:26:16 $111.3 +0.23% -0.01% -0.01% -0.04% -0.72% +0.36% -0.05% - WIN
2024-04-24 09:29:04 $98.43 -0.05% -0.39% -0.77% -0.33% -0.08% +0.12% -0.25% +0.07% LOSS
2024-04-23 09:27:06 $98.52 -0.31% -0.66% -0.38% -0.74% -1.26% +0.99% -0.16% +0.22% LOSS
2024-04-11 09:29:34 $94.81 -0.03% -0.54% -0.55% -1.03% -0.50% +0.11% +0.05% +0.06% LOSS
2024-04-10 09:26:17 $94.54 +0.02% -0.23% -0.20% -0.15% -0.17% +0.14% -0.01% +0.03% WIN
2024-04-02 09:26:59 $94.6 -0.18% -0.24% -0.17% -0.43% -0.20% +0.04% -0.12% +0.04% LOSS
2024-03-27 09:26:04 $95.5 +0.04% +0.18% +0.07% +0.06% +0.40% +0.42% -0.24% - WIN
2024-02-06 09:25:01 $103.3 +0.01% -0.17% -0.06% -0.03% +0.43% +0.61% -0.33% +0.01% WIN
2023-11-20 09:27:00 $94.86 +0.01% +0.32% +0.43% +0.50% +0.41% +0.75% -0.16% -0.13% WIN
2023-11-17 09:27:00 $94.86 -0.05% -0.01% -0.04% +0.04% +0.05% +0.27% -0.07% +0.06% LOSS
2023-11-16 09:26:00 $93.97 -0.02% -0.17% -0.12% +0.23% +0.10% +0.32% -0.26% -0.09% LOSS
2023-11-08 09:27:00 $94.39 +0.12% +0.32% +0.57% +0.19% -0.01% +0.66% - +0.06% WIN
2023-10-24 09:29:00 $94.39 +0.77% +0.50% +0.38% +0.73% +0.55% +1.17% -0.21% +0.15% WIN
2023-10-12 09:26:00 $98.85 +0.32% - -0.23% +0.03% -0.99% +0.45% -0.11% +0.07% WIN
2023-10-11 09:26:00 $99.44 -0.07% -0.48% +0.04% -0.37% -0.03% +0.07% -0.60% +0.04% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ NVS Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 51.8% win rate, NVS has -0.00% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making NVS profitable.

🔧 Fix NVS Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze NVS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NVS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NVS historically offers an average upside of +0.58% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NVS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.8%, NVS shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: NVS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.00%). This suggests NVS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.