Latest signal: October 04, 2024

NWN Stock Analysis

Name: NWN Trading Alert Analysis
Creator: FILTRIX

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-30 → 2024-10-04

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Northwest Natural Holding Company NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION (SIC 4924)

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.nwnaturalholdings.com

💰 Market Cap: $1.90B 👥 Employees: 1,452

Northwest Natural Holding Co is a public natural gas service supplier operating in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Its subsidiary, NW Natural, operates through the natural gas distribution segment, which purchases and distributes natural gas through which operates in Oregon and southwest Washington. The company operates in one reportable business segment, which is NW Natural's local gas distribution business and is referred to as the NGD segment. The company generates its revenue from residential, commercial, and industrial customers, the majority of which are in Oregon. Residential and commercial customers account for the vast majority of profitability.

📊

Total Alerts

🎯

66.7%

Win Rate (5MIN)

💰

+0.07%

Avg Gain (5MIN)

🚀

+1.25%

Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%

Avg Gain: +0.07%

Avg Winner: +0.63%

Avg Loser: -1.06%

Best: +0.65%

Worst: -1.06%

Trades: 2/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%

Avg Gain: -0.04%

Avg Winner: +0.21%

Avg Loser: -0.30%

Best: +0.21%

Worst: -0.30%

Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%

Avg Gain: -0.11%

Avg Winner: +0.24%

Avg Loser: -0.81%

Best: +0.35%

Worst: -0.81%

Trades: 2/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%

Avg Gain: -0.24%

Avg Winner: +0.54%

Avg Loser: -0.64%

Best: +0.54%

Worst: -0.87%

Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%

Avg Gain: -0.10%

Avg Winner: +1.02%

Avg Loser: -0.66%

Best: +1.02%

Worst: -0.79%

Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.25%

Best MFE: +1.48%

Avg Time to MFE: 168 min

On average, NWN alerts reach +1.25% profit potential within 168 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.55%

Worst MAE: -1.06%

Avg Time to MAE: 25 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.55%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.28:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.28x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, NWN typically reaches +1.25% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3

Gap Up % 66.7%

Avg Gap +0.05%

Best Gap +0.26%

🏭 Sector Comparison: NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION

How NWN compares to 8 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain

NWN: -0.22% Sector: +0.01% -0.23%

EOD Gain

NWN: -0.66% Sector: -1.19% +0.54%

Avg MFE

NWN: +1.34% Sector: +2.29% -0.95%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical NWN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date	Time	Price	5min	15min	30min	60min	EOD	MFE	MAE	Gap	Result
2024-10-04	09:28:50	$39.12	+0.65%	-	+0.13%	-0.41%	+1.02%	+1.07%	-0.49%	+0.26%	WIN
2024-08-28	09:28:18	$40.44	-1.06%	-0.30%	+0.35%	+0.54%	-0.52%	+1.21%	-1.06%	-0.25%	LOSS
2022-03-30	09:25:00	$51.75	+0.62%	+0.21%	-0.81%	-0.87%	-0.79%	+1.48%	-0.10%	+0.14%	WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 66.7% Baseline on NWN

The 66.7% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push NWN's performance to 75%+.

Optimize NWN Strategy →

Why Analyze NWN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for NWN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, NWN historically offers an average upside of +1.25% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 NWN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, NWN shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show NWN performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.07%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.