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ODFL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-06 → 2024-02-26

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Old Dominion Freight Line TRUCKING (NO LOCAL) (SIC 4213)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 24, 1991 🔗 www.odfl.com
💰 Market Cap: $36.45B 👥 Employees: 21,895
Old Dominion Freight Line is the second-largest less-than-truckload carrier in the United States (following FedEx Freight), with more than 250 service centers and 11,000-plus tractors. It is one of the most disciplined and efficient providers in the trucking industry, and its profitability and capital returns are head and shoulders above its peers. Strategic initiatives revolve around boosting network density through market share gains and maintaining industry-leading service (including ultralow cargo claims) via steadfast infrastructure investment.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
80.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.63%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+1.64%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +0.35%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +0.48%
Worst: -0.59%
Trades: 3/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.16%
Avg Loser: -0.39%
Best: +0.33%
Worst: -0.57%
Trades: 3/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.19%
Avg Winner: +0.57%
Avg Loser: -0.38%
Best: +0.92%
Worst: -0.66%
Trades: 3/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +0.63%
Avg Winner: +0.85%
Avg Loser: -0.26%
Best: +1.48%
Worst: -0.26%
Trades: 4/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -24.41%
Avg Winner: +1.16%
Avg Loser: -49.98%
Best: +1.87%
Worst: -51.55%
Trades: 3/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.64%
Best MFE: +2.63%
Avg Time to MFE: 344 min

On average, ODFL alerts reach +1.64% profit potential within 344 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.87%
Worst MAE: -2.29%
Avg Time to MAE: 112 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.88:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, ODFL typically reaches +1.64% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.08%
Best Gap +0.26%

🏭 Sector Comparison: TRUCKING (NO LOCAL)

How ODFL compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ODFL: +0.00% Sector: +0.17% -0.16%
EOD Gain
ODFL: -29.66% Sector: -7.45% -22.22%
Avg MFE
ODFL: +1.52% Sector: +2.16% -0.65%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ODFL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-02-26 09:26:01 $439.97 -0.44% +0.33% +0.40% +0.77% +1.35% +1.66% -0.44% -0.30% LOSS
2024-02-14 09:28:41 $423.94 +0.43% +0.08% +0.92% +1.48% -49.15% +2.08% +0.00% +0.25% WIN
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $385.0 - - - - +1.87% +2.23% -2.29% +0.15% -
2022-02-08 09:25:00 $305.87 +0.48% -0.20% +0.38% +1.10% -49.23% +2.63% -0.34% +0.26% WIN
2022-01-20 09:25:00 $316.81 -0.59% -0.57% -0.09% -0.26% -51.55% +0.56% -1.05% -0.77% LOSS
2022-01-06 09:25:00 $341.26 +0.13% +0.08% -0.66% +0.05% +0.27% +0.66% -1.10% -0.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 80.0% Baseline on ODFL

The 80.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ODFL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ODFL Strategy →

Why Analyze ODFL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ODFL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ODFL historically offers an average upside of +1.64% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ODFL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 80.0%, ODFL shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ODFL performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.63%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.