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OKTA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 69 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-03 → 2025-01-21

⚠️ Small sample size (69 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Okta, Inc. Class A Common Stock SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 07, 2017 🔗 www.okta.com
💰 Market Cap: $16.09B 👥 Employees: 5,914
Okta is a cloud-native security company that focuses on identity and access management. The San Francisco-based firm went public in 2017 and focuses on two key client stakeholder groups: workforces and customers. Okta's workforce offerings enable a company's employees to securely access its cloud-based and on-premises resources. The firm's customer offerings allow its clients' customers to securely access the client's applications.
📊
69
Total Alerts
🎯
55.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.03%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.49%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 55.1%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.07%
Avg Loser: -1.38%
Best: +5.02%
Worst: -5.22%
Trades: 38/31

15MIN

Win Rate: 49.3%
Avg Gain: -0.35%
Avg Winner: +1.48%
Avg Loser: -2.13%
Best: +8.02%
Worst: -7.96%
Trades: 34/35

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.4%
Avg Gain: -0.58%
Avg Winner: +1.51%
Avg Loser: -2.40%
Best: +7.42%
Worst: -10.47%
Trades: 32/37

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.6%
Avg Gain: -0.74%
Avg Winner: +1.80%
Avg Loser: -2.47%
Best: +6.52%
Worst: -10.57%
Trades: 28/41

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.4%
Avg Gain: -0.48%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -3.31%
Best: +9.60%
Worst: -14.62%
Trades: 32/37

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.49%
Best MFE: +10.30%
Avg Time to MFE: 106 min

On average, OKTA alerts reach +2.49% profit potential within 106 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.14%
Worst MAE: -6.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.14%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.19:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.19x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 69 alerts, OKTA typically reaches +2.49% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 69
Gap Up % 47.8%
Avg Gap -0.05%
Best Gap +2.22%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How OKTA compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OKTA: -0.03% Sector: -0.09% +0.06%
EOD Gain
OKTA: -0.48% Sector: +73.64% -74.12%
Avg MFE
OKTA: +2.49% Sector: +4.32% -1.83%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OKTA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-21 09:26:56 $88.35 -0.02% +0.52% +0.11% +0.11% +1.19% +1.53% -0.60% +0.10% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:26:30 $80.19 +0.87% -0.16% -0.76% -0.22% -0.69% +0.90% +0.09% +0.39% WIN
2024-12-09 09:28:32 $85.29 -0.55% -0.63% -0.62% -2.37% -2.45% +0.12% -0.43% -0.28% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:29:24 $87.49 +1.79% +1.48% +0.86% -1.03% -4.54% +2.64% -0.90% -0.26% WIN
2024-12-04 09:29:11 $90.7 -5.22% -5.76% -6.39% -5.96% -5.06% +0.80% -3.95% +0.33% LOSS
2024-12-03 09:28:05 $81.28 -1.59% -1.67% -1.12% -1.19% +0.53% +0.89% -2.09% -0.06% LOSS
2024-12-02 09:29:22 $80.45 -1.06% +0.19% -0.03% +1.01% +0.50% +1.23% -1.47% -0.56% LOSS
2024-11-29 09:26:26 $76.52 -0.62% +1.01% +1.06% +0.90% +1.36% +1.66% -0.65% -0.30% LOSS
2024-08-29 09:29:08 $83.25 -3.75% -4.99% -4.67% -4.11% -4.49% +0.75% -2.19% -0.29% LOSS
2024-05-30 09:25:14 $101.98 -1.77% -7.96% -10.47% -10.57% -12.91% -0.08% -0.37% -1.02% LOSS
2024-04-12 09:27:37 $99.71 +0.65% +0.08% +0.13% +0.63% -1.45% +1.05% +0.36% +1.05% WIN
2024-02-29 09:26:36 $107.5 +0.33% +2.16% +1.72% -1.16% -0.19% +4.26% -2.32% -0.07% WIN
2023-12-01 09:29:00 $67.18 +0.64% +1.34% +0.63% +1.27% +9.60% +9.82% -0.07% +0.07% WIN
2023-11-30 09:25:00 $68.63 +1.97% +0.34% +0.73% +1.78% -2.30% +3.15% +0.09% +0.98% WIN
2023-11-29 09:26:00 $70.5 +0.38% -1.93% -3.28% -2.00% +0.38% +2.33% -4.41% +0.03% WIN
2023-11-21 09:27:00 $70.77 +1.61% +1.93% +0.18% -0.26% +0.35% +2.22% +0.41% +1.07% WIN
2023-10-25 09:28:00 $71.0 +0.04% -1.08% -2.38% -1.68% -5.04% +1.34% - +0.73% WIN
2023-10-23 09:26:00 $69.94 -0.51% +0.50% -0.31% +0.10% -0.74% +1.16% -3.06% -0.92% LOSS
2023-09-29 09:28:00 $82.21 +1.30% +0.96% +1.68% +0.48% -0.85% +2.04% +0.02% +0.19% WIN
2023-09-01 09:28:00 $84.42 +1.07% +1.53% +2.14% +1.88% +2.06% +2.65% -0.32% +0.05% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ OKTA Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 55.1% win rate, OKTA has -0.03% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making OKTA profitable.

🔧 Fix OKTA Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze OKTA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OKTA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OKTA historically offers an average upside of +2.49% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OKTA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.1%, OKTA shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.38%) outweigh average wins (+1.07%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: OKTA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.03%). This suggests OKTA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.