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ORGN Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 20 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-06-06 → 2025-01-14

⚠️ Small sample size (20 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Origin Materials, Inc. Common Stock INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS (SIC 2860)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 25, 2021 🔗 www.originmaterials.com
💰 Market Cap: $31.5M 👥 Employees: 109
Origin Materials Inc is a carbon-negative materials company. The platform turns the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while eliminating the need for fossil resources and capturing carbon in the process. Its products include, PET circular caps and closures, Para-xylene, carbon black, Levulinic acid among others by using materials like food and beverage packaging, clothing, textiles, plastics, car parts, carpeting, tires, adhesives, soil amendments, and fuels.
📊
20
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.51%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+6.57%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 30.0%
Avg Gain: -1.01%
Avg Winner: +3.70%
Avg Loser: -3.02%
Best: +5.64%
Worst: -9.64%
Trades: 6/14

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.0%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +4.31%
Avg Loser: -3.87%
Best: +10.08%
Worst: -8.04%
Trades: 9/11

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.51%
Avg Winner: +5.51%
Avg Loser: -6.53%
Best: +13.25%
Worst: -20.70%
Trades: 10/10

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.0%
Avg Gain: -0.87%
Avg Winner: +5.44%
Avg Loser: -6.04%
Best: +15.38%
Worst: -16.19%
Trades: 9/11

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.0%
Avg Gain: -0.80%
Avg Winner: +7.30%
Avg Loser: -8.18%
Best: +22.22%
Worst: -21.77%
Trades: 9/10

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +6.57%
Best MFE: +28.21%
Avg Time to MFE: 104 min

On average, ORGN alerts reach +6.57% profit potential within 104 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.74%
Worst MAE: -13.25%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.74%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.39:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.39x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 20 alerts, ORGN typically reaches +6.57% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 20
Gap Up % 20.0%
Avg Gap -0.28%
Best Gap +3.13%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS

How ORGN compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ORGN: -1.01% Sector: -0.24% -0.77%
EOD Gain
ORGN: -0.80% Sector: +170.47% -171.28%
Avg MFE
ORGN: +6.57% Sector: +5.49% +1.07%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ORGN alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-14 09:25:33 $1.08 -0.92% -5.56% -7.31% -6.42% -5.56% +0.46% - -0.93% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:25:46 $1.15 -4.43% +1.63% +5.22% +0.96% - +6.96% -5.22% - LOSS
2024-11-21 09:27:45 $1.11 +3.61% +4.96% +8.11% +9.92% +7.21% +13.51% -0.90% -0.90% WIN
2024-09-23 09:29:41 $1.66 -9.64% -6.10% -10.98% -3.92% -2.41% +1.81% -13.25% -0.60% LOSS
2024-08-16 09:28:11 $1.17 +5.64% +7.26% +13.25% +15.38% +22.22% +28.21% -0.85% - WIN
2024-08-15 09:26:31 $1.01 +2.97% +5.16% +7.91% +2.97% +8.91% +10.89% -2.03% -0.99% WIN
2024-08-05 09:28:50 $0.78 -1.38% -1.37% +1.84% +2.43% +2.68% +6.92% -4.54% +3.13% LOSS
2023-10-11 09:25:00 $1.11 -1.01% +3.47% +1.35% +2.70% +5.41% +15.32% -1.94% -1.80% LOSS
2023-10-09 09:27:00 $1.11 +3.61% +2.61% +1.35% -1.80% -19.87% +4.39% -0.45% - WIN
2023-09-07 09:26:00 $1.38 -0.36% -1.09% -1.81% -1.09% +2.17% +2.90% -2.90% +1.45% LOSS
2023-08-31 09:28:00 $1.41 -0.71% +0.71% +0.71% +1.31% -2.84% +1.42% -1.42% -1.42% LOSS
2023-08-18 09:29:00 $1.38 +3.30% +2.91% +2.91% +2.37% +1.45% +7.97% -0.72% -0.72% WIN
2023-08-15 09:29:00 $1.39 -2.88% -1.80% -1.80% -6.47% -0.72% +4.32% -1.32% +0.72% LOSS
2023-08-14 09:28:00 $1.24 +3.06% +10.08% +12.50% +10.89% +14.52% +18.55% -1.61% -0.81% WIN
2023-08-11 09:28:00 $1.43 -5.79% -8.04% -11.89% -16.19% -14.69% +1.40% -4.20% +1.40% LOSS
2023-08-10 09:28:00 $1.86 -6.99% -6.18% -20.70% -15.06% -21.77% +2.15% -0.55% -1.61% LOSS
2023-06-27 09:27:00 $4.74 -2.11% -4.85% -3.27% -6.54% -8.23% +0.21% -1.05% -0.42% LOSS
2023-05-09 09:27:00 $4.27 -2.42% -2.58% -2.11% -2.22% +1.17% +1.64% -3.04% -0.94% LOSS
2022-06-27 09:25:00 $5.37 -2.79% -1.86% -1.86% -2.89% -2.05% +1.96% -3.54% -0.93% LOSS
2022-06-06 09:25:00 $7.32 -0.89% -3.14% -3.55% -3.83% -3.69% +0.34% -5.33% -0.27% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ORGN Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.51% average gain, ORGN alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ORGN for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ORGN with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ORGN. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ORGN historically offers an average upside of +6.57% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ORGN Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, ORGN shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ORGN may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ORGN shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.51%). This suggests ORGN is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.