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ORGNW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 1 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-08-10 → 2023-08-10

⚠️ Small sample size (1 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Origin Materials, Inc. Warrants INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS (SIC 2860)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 25, 2021 🔗 www.originmaterials.com
👥 Employees: 109
Origin Materials Inc is a carbon-negative materials company. The platform turns the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while eliminating the need for fossil resources and capturing carbon in the process. Its products include, PET circular caps and closures, Para-xylene, carbon black, Levulinic acid among others by using materials like food and beverage packaging, clothing, textiles, plastics, car parts, carpeting, tires, adhesives, soil amendments, and fuels.
📊
1
Total Alerts
🎯
0.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-18.65%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+11.89%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -18.65%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -18.65%
Best: -18.65%
Worst: -18.65%
Trades: 0/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -30.79%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -30.79%
Best: -30.79%
Worst: -30.79%
Trades: 0/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -36.11%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -36.11%
Best: -36.11%
Worst: -36.11%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -36.17%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -36.17%
Best: -36.17%
Worst: -36.17%
Trades: 0/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -25.03%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -25.03%
Best: -25.03%
Worst: -25.03%
Trades: 0/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +11.89%
Best MFE: +11.89%
Avg Time to MFE: 3 min

On average, ORGNW alerts reach +11.89% profit potential within 3 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -12.39%
Worst MAE: -12.39%
Avg Time to MAE: 2 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 12.39%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.96:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 1 alerts, ORGNW typically reaches +11.89% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 9.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 1
Gap Up % 100.0%
Avg Gap +11.89%
Best Gap +11.89%

🏭 Sector Comparison: INDUSTRIAL ORGANIC CHEMICALS

How ORGNW compares to 16 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ORGNW: -18.65% Sector: -0.24% -18.41%
EOD Gain
ORGNW: -25.03% Sector: +170.47% -195.50%
Avg MFE
ORGNW: +11.89% Sector: +5.49% +6.40%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ORGNW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-08-10 09:27:00 $0.16 -18.65% -30.79% -36.11% -36.17% -25.03% +11.89% -12.39% +11.89% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ ORGNW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 0.0% win rate and -18.65% average gain, ORGNW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider ORGNW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze ORGNW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ORGNW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ORGNW historically offers an average upside of +11.89% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ORGNW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 0.0%, ORGNW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests ORGNW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: ORGNW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -18.65%). This suggests ORGNW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.