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ORLY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-29 → 2024-06-05

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 22, 1993 🔗 www.oreillyauto.com
💰 Market Cap: $83.76B 👥 Employees: 93,047
O'Reilly is an aftermarket automotive parts retailer in the United States and Mexico with more than $16 billion in annual sales. The company operates over 6,000 domestic stores and serves both the do-it-yourself (about 50% of sales) and professional (47% of sales) end markets. O'Reilly differentiates itself by providing quality service to its customers throughout the entirety of the vehicle diagnosis and purchasing process. Furthermore, the firm boasts an impressive hub-and-spoke distribution network designed to provide its localized store base with ample aftermarket part availability across a variety of vehicle makes and models.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.10%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+0.91%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: +0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.23%
Avg Loser: -0.09%
Best: +0.27%
Worst: -0.12%
Trades: 2/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.29%
Avg Loser: -0.20%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -0.20%
Trades: 3/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -0.42%
Best: +0.52%
Worst: -0.69%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.37%
Avg Loser: -0.28%
Best: +0.71%
Worst: -0.51%
Trades: 2/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -56.33%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -56.33%
Best: -0.01%
Worst: -93.44%
Trades: 0/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.91%
Best MFE: +2.11%
Avg Time to MFE: 125 min

On average, ORLY alerts reach +0.91% profit potential within 125 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.17%
Worst MAE: -0.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.17%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.23:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.23x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, ORLY typically reaches +0.91% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 60.0%
Avg Gap +0.10%
Best Gap +0.37%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-AUTO & HOME SUPPLY STORES

How ORLY compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
ORLY: +0.04% Sector: +0.30% -0.27%
EOD Gain
ORLY: -56.33% Sector: -6.29% -50.04%
Avg MFE
ORLY: +0.91% Sector: +2.52% -1.61%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical ORLY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-06-05 09:27:58 $970.73 -0.05% -0.20% -0.29% +0.02% -93.29% +0.69% -0.62% -0.26% LOSS
2024-02-20 09:25:29 $1051.84 +0.27% +0.01% -0.36% -0.51% -93.44% +0.41% -0.28% -0.11% WIN
2024-02-07 09:26:33 $1051.86 -0.12% +0.31% +0.52% +0.71% -93.24% +2.11% -0.13% +0.37% LOSS
2023-09-12 09:29:00 $940.0 +0.20% -0.20% -0.69% -0.22% -1.67% +0.71% +0.26% +0.26% WIN
2022-11-29 09:25:00 $849.85 -0.10% +0.56% -0.35% -0.11% -0.01% +0.62% -0.10% +0.25% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 60.0% Baseline on ORLY

The 60.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push ORLY's performance to 75%+.

Optimize ORLY Strategy →

Why Analyze ORLY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for ORLY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, ORLY historically offers an average upside of +0.91% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 ORLY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, ORLY shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show ORLY performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.10%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.