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OSG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-12-26 → 2024-05-20

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Octave Specialty Group, Inc. SURETY INSURANCE (SIC 6351)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 25, 1989 🔗 www.octavegroup.com
💰 Market Cap: $267.3M 👥 Employees: 195
Octave Specialty Group Inc is a world-wide specialty insurance firm that provides strategic direction, risk oversight, data and technology solutions, and capital support to MGA businesses operating across the U.S., U.K., and Bermuda.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.64%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.12%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.64%
Avg Winner: +1.35%
Avg Loser: -0.06%
Best: +1.35%
Worst: -0.06%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.33%
Avg Winner: +0.77%
Avg Loser: -0.12%
Best: +0.77%
Worst: -0.12%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -0.19%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -0.19%
Trades: 0/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.32%
Avg Winner: +0.30%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +0.30%
Worst: -0.94%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +2.21%
Avg Winner: +4.42%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +4.42%
Worst: +0.00%
Trades: 1/0

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.12%
Best MFE: +5.77%
Avg Time to MFE: 219 min

On average, OSG alerts reach +3.12% profit potential within 219 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.93%
Worst MAE: -1.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 33 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.93%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.36:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.36x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, OSG typically reaches +3.12% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.29%
Best Gap +0.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SURETY INSURANCE

How OSG compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
OSG: +0.64% Sector: -0.19% +0.83%
EOD Gain
OSG: +2.21% Sector: +2.47% -0.26%
Avg MFE
OSG: +3.12% Sector: +4.23% -1.11%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical OSG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-20 09:26:18 $8.42 -0.06% -0.12% - +0.30% - +0.48% -0.71% - LOSS
2023-12-26 09:27:00 $5.2 +1.35% +0.77% -0.19% -0.94% +4.42% +5.77% -1.15% -0.58% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.0% Baseline on OSG

The 50.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push OSG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize OSG Strategy →

Why Analyze OSG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for OSG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, OSG historically offers an average upside of +3.12% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 OSG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, OSG shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show OSG performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.64%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.