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PBF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 16 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-18 → 2024-02-15

⚠️ Small sample size (16 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 13, 2012 🔗 www.pbfenergy.com
💰 Market Cap: $3.87B 👥 Employees: 3,855
PBF Energy Inc is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States. The company owns refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. The Company operates in two reportable business segments: Refining and Logistics. The Company's oil refineries are all engaged in the refining of crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products and are aggregated into the Refining segment. PBFX operates logistics assets such as crude oil and refined products terminals, pipelines and storage facilities. The Logistics segment consists solely of PBFX's operations.
📊
16
Total Alerts
🎯
62.5%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.06%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.92%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.83%
Avg Loser: -1.23%
Best: +2.61%
Worst: -2.43%
Trades: 10/6

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.87%
Avg Loser: -2.08%
Best: +3.37%
Worst: -4.85%
Trades: 8/8

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.32%
Avg Winner: +1.61%
Avg Loser: -2.25%
Best: +3.95%
Worst: -6.00%
Trades: 8/8

60MIN

Win Rate: 56.2%
Avg Gain: -0.14%
Avg Winner: +1.99%
Avg Loser: -2.88%
Best: +4.75%
Worst: -6.59%
Trades: 9/7

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 37.5%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +3.41%
Avg Loser: -2.80%
Best: +9.35%
Worst: -7.15%
Trades: 6/10

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.92%
Best MFE: +9.35%
Avg Time to MFE: 105 min

On average, PBF alerts reach +2.92% profit potential within 105 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.09%
Worst MAE: -3.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 15 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.09%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.67:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.67x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 16 alerts, PBF typically reaches +2.92% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 16
Gap Up % 37.5%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +0.94%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PETROLEUM REFINING

How PBF compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PBF: +0.06% Sector: -0.01% +0.07%
EOD Gain
PBF: -0.47% Sector: +0.04% -0.51%
Avg MFE
PBF: +2.92% Sector: +1.50% +1.42%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PBF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-02-15 09:25:43 $49.5 +2.61% +3.31% +2.29% +3.98% +3.15% +5.15% -0.40% - WIN
2023-11-02 09:29:00 $49.57 +0.89% -3.74% -1.40% -2.62% -4.30% +1.16% -2.30% -2.20% WIN
2023-10-19 09:28:00 $50.25 -2.17% -0.88% -0.34% -0.52% -1.83% +0.52% -2.47% -0.38% LOSS
2023-09-27 09:29:00 $53.81 +0.32% -0.21% -0.04% +0.80% +0.84% +1.88% -0.85% -0.09% WIN
2023-09-22 09:29:00 $54.54 +0.13% +0.94% +0.64% -0.02% -2.44% +1.30% -0.72% -0.24% WIN
2023-04-03 09:26:00 $45.69 -2.43% -4.25% -6.00% -6.59% -5.12% -0.09% -0.85% -0.85% LOSS
2023-02-17 09:27:00 $45.06 -1.38% -4.85% -5.05% -3.98% -7.15% +1.35% - +0.75% LOSS
2023-02-16 09:25:00 $44.78 +0.49% +3.37% +3.12% +4.11% +0.36% +5.61% -1.23% -0.42% WIN
2023-01-04 09:25:00 $36.61 +0.42% +2.35% +1.17% +1.26% +1.48% +3.17% -0.56% -0.19% WIN
2022-12-06 09:25:00 $34.13 +0.25% +0.12% +0.95% +0.30% -1.23% +1.96% -0.73% +0.29% WIN
2022-11-29 09:25:00 $42.31 -0.17% -0.05% -1.18% +0.14% -1.84% +1.37% -1.04% +0.21% LOSS
2022-07-28 09:25:00 $32.0 +0.71% +2.64% -1.53% -5.09% -1.94% +5.03% -0.69% -0.09% WIN
2022-06-07 09:25:00 $40.0 +1.18% +1.45% +3.95% +4.75% +9.35% +9.35% +0.23% +0.25% WIN
2022-03-29 09:25:00 $21.3 -1.03% +0.82% +0.42% +1.88% +5.31% +5.35% -2.21% +0.94% LOSS
2022-03-28 09:25:00 $22.24 -0.18% -2.38% -2.47% +0.67% -0.22% +1.93% -3.42% +0.04% LOSS
2022-01-18 09:25:00 $18.3 +1.37% -0.27% +0.30% -1.31% -1.97% +1.64% -0.27% -0.19% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.5% Baseline on PBF

The 62.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push PBF's performance to 75%+.

Optimize PBF Strategy →

Why Analyze PBF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PBF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PBF historically offers an average upside of +2.92% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PBF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.5%, PBF shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show PBF performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.06%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.