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PBR Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 619 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Aug 10, 2000 🔗 www.petrobras.com.br
💰 Market Cap: $92.41B 👥 Employees: 41,778
Petrobras is a Brazil-based integrated energy company controlled by the Brazilian government. The company focuses on exploration and production of oil and gas in Brazilian offshore fields. Production in 2024 was 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (80% oil production), and reserves stood at 11.4 billion boe (85% oil). At end-2024, Petrobras operated 10 refineries in Brazil with capacity of 1.8 million barrels a day and distributes refined products and natural gas throughout Brazil.
📊
619
Total Alerts
🎯
51.5%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.10%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.53%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.0%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.38%
Avg Loser: -0.46%
Best: +1.53%
Worst: -11.31%
Trades: 284/310

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.2%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.64%
Avg Loser: -0.70%
Best: +3.81%
Worst: -3.40%
Trades: 298/305

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.83%
Best: +5.17%
Worst: -3.65%
Trades: 300/312

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.02%
Avg Loser: -1.01%
Best: +4.35%
Worst: -4.60%
Trades: 302/311

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 51.5%
Avg Gain: +0.10%
Avg Winner: +1.60%
Avg Loser: -1.54%
Best: +8.70%
Worst: -7.93%
Trades: 318/292

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.53%
Best MFE: +9.50%
Avg Time to MFE: 144 min

On average, PBR alerts reach +1.53% profit potential within 144 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.64%
Worst MAE: -19.35%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.64%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.4:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.4x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 619 alerts, PBR typically reaches +1.53% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 619
Gap Up % 41.0%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +3.43%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PBR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:36 $13.91 +0.29% +0.40% +0.58% +0.65% +2.95% +3.88% -0.07% +0.29% WIN
2025-02-13 09:26:15 $13.53 -0.18% +0.41% +0.55% +1.00% +1.33% +1.59% -0.30% -0.22% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:26:42 $13.82 - -0.07% +0.07% -0.25% -0.94% +0.29% -0.14% -0.14% -
2025-02-06 09:26:17 $14.02 -0.21% +0.04% -0.21% -0.43% -1.07% +0.29% -0.50% -0.14% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:28:00 $13.93 +0.22% -0.14% +0.21% +0.61% -0.07% +0.72% -0.22% +0.43% WIN
2025-02-04 09:26:20 $13.97 +0.29% +0.57% +1.75% +1.07% +1.15% +1.86% -0.07% +0.07% WIN
2025-02-03 09:25:17 $14.04 +0.18% +0.85% +0.11% +0.53% +1.28% +1.50% -0.36% -0.21% WIN
2025-01-30 09:26:59 $13.79 +0.25% +0.83% +0.51% +1.56% +2.47% +2.79% -0.22% -0.14% WIN
2025-01-29 09:28:25 $13.85 -0.14% - +0.29% +0.24% +0.29% +0.94% -0.43% -0.22% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:26:37 $13.84 -0.54% -0.47% -0.22% -0.36% +0.29% +0.87% -1.08% -0.29% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:29:45 $13.76 +0.18% +0.31% - -0.07% -0.22% +0.58% -0.11% -0.07% WIN
2025-01-17 09:29:17 $13.75 +0.44% +0.58% +0.76% +0.51% -0.22% +1.24% -0.29% +0.22% WIN
2025-01-15 09:26:01 $13.69 +0.26% +0.11% -0.11% -0.15% +0.80% +1.10% -0.80% +0.07% WIN
2025-01-13 09:28:25 $13.48 +0.68% +0.48% +0.48% +1.11% +0.30% +1.56% -0.15% +0.07% WIN
2025-01-10 09:29:57 $13.59 +0.97% +0.88% +0.30% -0.29% -0.81% +1.07% +0.07% +0.15% WIN
2025-01-08 09:27:30 $13.33 +0.41% +0.19% +0.23% +0.34% +0.53% +0.68% -0.15% - WIN
2025-01-06 09:25:13 $13.06 +0.54% +0.80% +1.57% +1.69% +0.54% +2.07% -0.08% +0.77% WIN
2025-01-02 09:27:50 $12.79 +0.23% +1.13% +1.02% +2.15% +3.52% +3.60% -0.08% - WIN
2024-12-30 09:28:19 $12.68 +0.04% - +0.16% +0.00% +0.55% +1.18% -0.47% +0.16% WIN
2024-12-27 09:26:06 $12.58 +0.16% +0.55% +0.72% +0.20% +0.24% +0.87% -0.24% +0.08% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 51.5% Baseline on PBR

The 51.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push PBR's performance to 75%+.

Optimize PBR Strategy →

Why Analyze PBR with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PBR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PBR historically offers an average upside of +1.53% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PBR Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.5%, PBR shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show PBR performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.10%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.