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PD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 12 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-17 → 2024-12-05

⚠️ Small sample size (12 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 11, 2019 🔗 www.pagerduty.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.03B 👥 Employees: 1,242
PagerDuty Inc is a digital operations management platform that manages urgent and mission-critical work for a modern, digital business. Its PagerDuty Operations Cloud combines artificial intelligence (AI) operations (AIOps), automation, customer service operations, and incident management with a generative AI assistant to create a flexible, resilient, and scalable platform to protect revenue and improve customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and mitigate the risk of operational failures. The company generates revenue predominantly from cloud-hosted software subscription fees and term-license software subscription fees. Geographically, the firm derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and the rest from International markets.
📊
12
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.47%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+3.53%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +1.01%
Avg Loser: -2.33%
Best: +1.92%
Worst: -5.97%
Trades: 6/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +2.33%
Avg Loser: -2.38%
Best: +4.37%
Worst: -4.80%
Trades: 6/6

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +2.31%
Avg Loser: -2.20%
Best: +5.75%
Worst: -5.36%
Trades: 6/6

60MIN

Win Rate: 41.7%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +3.32%
Avg Loser: -2.65%
Best: +5.77%
Worst: -9.50%
Trades: 5/7

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.40%
Avg Winner: +4.24%
Avg Loser: -3.45%
Best: +5.67%
Worst: -6.01%
Trades: 6/6

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.53%
Best MFE: +7.92%
Avg Time to MFE: 159 min

On average, PD alerts reach +3.53% profit potential within 159 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.95%
Worst MAE: -6.26%
Avg Time to MAE: 7 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.95%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.81:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 12 alerts, PD typically reaches +3.53% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 12
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap -0.34%
Best Gap +0.64%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How PD compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PD: -0.47% Sector: -0.09% -0.38%
EOD Gain
PD: +0.40% Sector: +73.64% -73.24%
Avg MFE
PD: +3.53% Sector: +4.32% -0.80%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-05 09:29:23 $21.69 -1.61% -1.22% -1.34% -1.71% -3.23% - -0.83% - LOSS
2024-12-03 09:28:47 $21.89 -2.49% -3.11% -1.69% -1.78% -3.02% -1.33% -4.75% -1.92% LOSS
2024-07-12 09:25:42 $20.99 +1.48% +1.29% +0.29% +1.48% +1.72% +2.38% -0.21% +0.57% WIN
2024-03-15 09:25:36 $20.35 +0.39% +4.37% +2.06% +1.99% +4.42% +7.52% - +0.29% WIN
2023-12-01 09:25:00 $23.12 -0.37% -4.80% -5.36% -9.50% -6.01% +0.48% -1.20% -0.82% LOSS
2023-10-11 09:25:00 $21.45 +0.19% -0.07% -0.14% -1.07% -3.08% +0.51% -0.33% -0.09% WIN
2023-10-10 09:25:00 $20.3 +0.15% +1.64% +3.10% +5.12% +5.67% +7.19% -1.28% -0.49% WIN
2023-09-01 09:26:00 $22.6 +1.92% +3.69% +5.75% +5.77% +5.18% +7.92% -0.84% +0.53% WIN
2023-06-06 09:27:00 $22.1 - +0.88% +2.04% +2.22% +3.71% +5.18% -0.63% - -
2023-06-02 09:25:00 $23.5 +1.91% +2.09% +0.60% -2.13% -2.13% +7.23% -1.06% +0.64% WIN
2022-12-02 09:25:00 $24.46 -5.97% -1.64% -3.34% -1.48% -3.23% +0.45% -6.01% -2.62% LOSS
2022-03-17 09:25:00 $30.98 -1.23% -3.45% -1.36% -0.90% +4.75% +4.81% -6.26% -0.19% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PD Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.47% average gain, PD alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PD for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PD historically offers an average upside of +3.53% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, PD shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PD may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.47%). This suggests PD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.