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PGNY Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-07 → 2024-11-25

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 25, 2019 🔗 www.progyny.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.17B 👥 Employees: 680
Progyny Inc is a benefits management company specializing in fertility, family building, and women's health benefits solutions. Its clients include employers across various industries. The fertility benefits solution consists of treatment services (Smart Cycles), access to the Progyny network of high-quality fertility specialists that perform the Smart Cycle treatments, and active management of the selective network of high-quality provider clinics.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
66.7%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.10%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+4.39%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.07%
Avg Winner: +3.12%
Avg Loser: -7.27%
Best: +7.46%
Worst: -19.64%
Trades: 3/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.92%
Avg Winner: +3.83%
Avg Loser: -5.67%
Best: +7.86%
Worst: -13.29%
Trades: 3/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.04%
Avg Winner: +2.82%
Avg Loser: -4.91%
Best: +7.14%
Worst: -7.12%
Trades: 3/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.50%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -3.80%
Best: +6.45%
Worst: -5.47%
Trades: 3/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +4.33%
Avg Loser: -8.96%
Best: +16.36%
Worst: -10.59%
Trades: 4/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.39%
Best MFE: +17.96%
Avg Time to MFE: 99 min

On average, PGNY alerts reach +4.39% profit potential within 99 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.65%
Worst MAE: -1.68%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.65%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

6.79:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 6.79x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, PGNY typically reaches +4.39% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 66.7%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +1.56%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-MISC HEALTH & ALLIED SERVICES, NEC

How PGNY compares to 6 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PGNY: -2.07% Sector: +0.23% -2.30%
EOD Gain
PGNY: -0.10% Sector: +335.81% -335.91%
Avg MFE
PGNY: +4.39% Sector: +8.55% -4.16%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PGNY alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-11-25 09:28:53 $15.68 +1.28% +0.64% +0.61% +1.31% +0.45% +2.17% +0.10% +0.19% WIN
2024-11-13 09:27:53 $15.0 -1.77% -3.67% -6.97% -5.47% -7.33% +0.27% -0.73% -0.67% LOSS
2024-09-19 09:25:46 $18.41 -19.64% -13.29% -7.12% -5.11% -10.59% -0.27% -1.68% -4.40% LOSS
2024-09-05 09:27:55 $23.58 +0.64% -0.04% -0.64% +0.64% +0.47% +2.25% -1.04% +1.48% WIN
2024-05-10 09:25:12 $23.66 +7.46% +7.86% +7.14% +6.45% +16.36% +17.96% +1.01% +1.01% WIN
2023-02-07 09:28:00 $32.0 -0.41% +3.00% +0.70% -0.81% +0.03% +3.97% -1.53% +1.56% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PGNY Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 66.7% win rate, PGNY has -0.10% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making PGNY profitable.

🔧 Fix PGNY Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze PGNY with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PGNY. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PGNY historically offers an average upside of +4.39% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PGNY Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 66.7%, PGNY shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-8.96%) outweigh average wins (+4.33%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PGNY shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.10%). This suggests PGNY is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.