Latest signal:
PGR Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 23 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-02 → 2025-01-15
⚠️ Small sample size (23 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, PGR alerts reach +0.80% profit potential within 140 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.66%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 23 alerts, PGR typically reaches +0.80% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE
How PGR compares to 22 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical PGR alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | 09:27:31 | $245.0 | -2.15% | -2.22% | -1.94% | -2.35% | -1.03% | -0.84% | -2.68% | -1.67% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-16 | 09:27:58 | $253.4 | -0.36% | -0.09% | -0.35% | -0.75% | -1.24% | +0.29% | -0.62% | +0.12% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-11 | 09:27:17 | $248.25 | -0.17% | -0.61% | -0.49% | -0.89% | -1.82% | +0.24% | -0.00% | -0.47% | LOSS |
| 2024-11-04 | 09:27:05 | $243.25 | +0.27% | +0.08% | -0.25% | -0.77% | -0.73% | +0.57% | +0.35% | +0.09% | WIN |
| 2024-11-01 | 09:25:18 | $243.5 | +0.12% | -0.27% | +0.16% | +0.66% | -0.32% | +0.97% | -0.38% | -0.06% | WIN |
| 2024-10-21 | 09:25:14 | $251.29 | - | +0.03% | +0.00% | -0.58% | -0.22% | +0.57% | -0.10% | -0.06% | - |
| 2024-10-15 | 09:29:57 | $254.03 | -0.30% | -0.20% | -0.74% | -0.62% | -0.96% | +0.54% | -1.69% | -0.01% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-25 | 09:26:05 | $258.0 | -0.02% | -0.17% | -0.28% | -0.31% | -0.39% | +0.28% | -0.02% | +0.05% | LOSS |
| 2024-09-20 | 09:25:26 | $255.31 | +0.16% | +0.88% | +0.65% | +0.85% | +1.54% | +1.65% | -0.78% | -0.04% | WIN |
| 2024-08-12 | 09:25:50 | $226.7 | -1.53% | -1.69% | -1.75% | -1.30% | -1.64% | -0.37% | -0.84% | -0.84% | LOSS |
| 2024-08-06 | 09:27:10 | $211.11 | +0.78% | +1.15% | +1.44% | +2.04% | +1.39% | +2.93% | +0.55% | +0.99% | WIN |
| 2024-07-08 | 09:25:24 | $209.44 | +0.85% | +1.12% | +1.49% | +0.79% | +0.13% | +1.64% | +0.42% | +0.83% | WIN |
| 2024-06-26 | 09:28:40 | $209.5 | -0.81% | -1.21% | -1.43% | -2.03% | -0.63% | -0.52% | -2.21% | -1.09% | LOSS |
| 2024-06-10 | 09:26:48 | $212.35 | -0.69% | -0.77% | -0.90% | -1.21% | -0.97% | +0.07% | -0.50% | -0.28% | LOSS |
| 2024-05-01 | 09:27:04 | $208.21 | +0.95% | +1.12% | +1.77% | +1.99% | +1.72% | +2.66% | -0.41% | +0.46% | WIN |
| 2023-02-07 | 09:29:00 | $137.67 | -0.58% | -0.75% | -0.41% | -0.54% | +0.75% | +0.97% | -0.97% | -0.73% | LOSS |
| 2022-12-09 | 09:25:00 | $131.18 | -0.11% | +0.38% | +0.23% | -0.15% | -1.37% | +0.57% | -0.11% | -0.05% | LOSS |
| 2022-04-25 | 09:25:00 | $108.29 | -0.16% | -0.63% | -0.82% | -0.51% | +2.10% | +2.40% | -1.18% | -0.09% | LOSS |
| 2022-02-14 | 09:25:00 | $105.94 | +0.04% | -0.23% | -0.59% | -0.78% | +0.25% | +0.56% | -1.73% | -0.55% | WIN |
| 2022-02-11 | 09:25:00 | $106.48 | -0.11% | -0.08% | +0.76% | +0.74% | -0.26% | +0.97% | -0.90% | -0.17% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ PGR Shows Negative Expectancy
With 39.1% win rate and -0.18% average gain, PGR alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PGR for short-selling strategies.
📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →Why Analyze PGR with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PGR. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, PGR historically offers an average upside of +0.80% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 PGR Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 39.1%, PGR shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PGR may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: PGR shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.18%). This suggests PGR is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.