Latest signal:
PHM Stock Analysis
Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 21 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-13 → 2025-01-30
⚠️ Small sample size (21 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.
🏢 Company Profile
📈 Performance by Timeframe
5MIN
15MIN
30MIN
60MIN
EOD (End of Day)
🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)
Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.
📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)
On average, PHM alerts reach +1.25% profit potential within 79 minutes.
📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)
Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.76%.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.
💡 Trading Insight: Based on 21 alerts, PHM typically reaches +1.25% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.0% to capture most of the move.
🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)
🏭 Sector Comparison: OPERATIVE BUILDERS
How PHM compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.
📋 Last 20 Alerts
Historical PHM alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.
| Date | Time | Price | 5min | 15min | 30min | 60min | EOD | MFE | MAE | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-30 | 09:29:50 | $115.05 | -0.82% | -1.22% | +0.78% | +3.41% | +3.01% | +5.44% | -1.44% | +1.16% | LOSS |
| 2024-12-20 | 09:25:07 | $108.89 | +0.15% | +0.73% | +0.13% | +0.09% | +1.50% | +2.10% | -0.78% | +0.26% | WIN |
| 2024-12-19 | 09:28:54 | $110.0 | +0.01% | -0.75% | +0.34% | -1.15% | -1.01% | +0.65% | -2.54% | -1.91% | WIN |
| 2024-06-12 | 09:29:06 | $116.58 | -0.13% | +0.52% | -0.20% | +0.73% | -1.05% | +1.30% | -0.54% | +0.03% | LOSS |
| 2024-04-02 | 09:26:47 | $117.31 | -2.28% | -3.89% | -3.91% | -3.85% | -2.65% | -0.97% | -1.10% | -1.26% | LOSS |
| 2024-03-21 | 09:29:22 | $115.22 | +0.95% | +0.88% | +0.47% | +0.60% | +0.73% | +1.69% | +0.03% | +0.06% | WIN |
| 2024-03-08 | 09:27:48 | $115.4 | -0.98% | -1.10% | -0.47% | -0.83% | -2.36% | -0.17% | -1.32% | -0.90% | LOSS |
| 2024-02-06 | 09:28:38 | $104.97 | -0.83% | -0.56% | -0.70% | -1.19% | -2.29% | -0.41% | -0.82% | -0.41% | LOSS |
| 2023-06-07 | 09:27:00 | $72.41 | -0.29% | +0.08% | +0.04% | -0.06% | -1.16% | +0.66% | -0.54% | -0.22% | LOSS |
| 2023-05-19 | 09:25:00 | $70.3 | -0.21% | -0.89% | -1.32% | -1.32% | -1.59% | +0.09% | -0.21% | -0.06% | LOSS |
| 2023-05-10 | 09:28:00 | $68.51 | -0.30% | -0.69% | -1.08% | -1.15% | -1.04% | +0.01% | -0.34% | -0.34% | LOSS |
| 2023-05-05 | 09:25:00 | $67.0 | -0.37% | -0.81% | -0.71% | -0.58% | +0.03% | +0.33% | -1.42% | -0.37% | LOSS |
| 2023-05-04 | 09:28:00 | $66.5 | +0.63% | -0.17% | +0.55% | +0.09% | -0.20% | +0.75% | -0.50% | +0.08% | WIN |
| 2023-03-07 | 09:25:00 | $54.85 | +0.18% | +0.44% | +0.57% | -0.24% | -1.48% | +0.91% | -0.02% | +0.29% | WIN |
| 2023-02-14 | 09:27:00 | $56.72 | -0.09% | +0.28% | +0.28% | +0.92% | -0.42% | +1.23% | -0.65% | -0.09% | LOSS |
| 2023-02-10 | 09:28:00 | $54.92 | +1.10% | +1.43% | +1.46% | +2.13% | +1.93% | +2.37% | +0.54% | +0.58% | WIN |
| 2022-10-25 | 09:25:00 | $38.29 | +0.08% | +3.32% | +3.19% | +3.00% | +3.29% | +5.80% | -1.33% | -0.86% | WIN |
| 2022-06-27 | 09:25:00 | $40.62 | -0.30% | -0.59% | -0.59% | - | -0.07% | +1.18% | -1.53% | -0.64% | LOSS |
| 2022-05-05 | 09:25:00 | $44.95 | -0.67% | -0.31% | -1.11% | -2.24% | -3.67% | +0.36% | -1.18% | -0.20% | LOSS |
| 2022-02-01 | 09:25:00 | $54.3 | -1.16% | -3.78% | -3.54% | -4.99% | -2.04% | - | -0.55% | -0.35% | LOSS |
Table Metrics Explained:
- 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
- MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
- MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
- Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
- Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise
⚠️ PHM Shows Negative Expectancy
Despite a 52.4% win rate, PHM has -0.17% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making PHM profitable.
🔧 Fix PHM Risk/Reward →Why Analyze PHM with FILTRIX?
🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation
We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PHM. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.
💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis
How much is left in the move? On winning days, PHM historically offers an average upside of +1.25% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.
📊 PHM Momentum Personality
With a baseline win rate of 52.4%, PHM shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.36%) outweigh average wins (+0.91%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.
⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing
⚠️ Caution Advised: PHM shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.17%). This suggests PHM is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.