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PK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-02-02 → 2024-10-03

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. Common Stock HOTELS & MOTELS (SIC 7011)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Dec 13, 2016 🔗 www.pkhotelsandresorts.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.27B 👥 Employees: 91
Park Hotels & Resorts owns upper-upscale and luxury hotels, with 22,395 rooms across 36 hotels in the United States. Park also has interests through joint ventures in another 2,271 rooms in three US hotels. Park was spun out of Hilton Worldwide Holdings at the start of 2017, so most of its hotels are still under Hilton brands. The company has sold all its international hotels and many of its lower-quality US hotels to focus on high-quality assets in domestic gateway markets.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.54%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.79%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.45%
Avg Winner: +0.63%
Avg Loser: -1.16%
Best: +1.07%
Worst: -1.28%
Trades: 2/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.67%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -1.03%
Best: +0.81%
Worst: -1.67%
Trades: 1/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.96%
Avg Winner: +1.10%
Avg Loser: -1.47%
Best: +1.10%
Worst: -1.99%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: -0.54%
Avg Winner: +0.31%
Avg Loser: -1.83%
Best: +0.66%
Worst: -1.91%
Trades: 3/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.47%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -1.20%
Best: +0.69%
Worst: -2.12%
Trades: 2/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.79%
Best MFE: +1.71%
Avg Time to MFE: 177 min

On average, PK alerts reach +0.79% profit potential within 177 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.42%
Worst MAE: -2.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 18 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.42%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.56:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, PK typically reaches +0.79% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 40.0%
Avg Gap -0.26%
Best Gap +0.20%

🏭 Sector Comparison: HOTELS & MOTELS

How PK compares to 15 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PK: -0.45% Sector: +0.06% -0.51%
EOD Gain
PK: -0.47% Sector: -0.05% -0.43%
Avg MFE
PK: +0.79% Sector: +2.24% -1.46%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-03 09:27:35 $14.1 -1.28% -1.67% -1.99% -1.91% -0.43% -0.32% -2.27% -0.35% LOSS
2024-07-16 09:25:51 $15.0 -1.07% -1.20% -1.63% +0.13% +0.53% +1.40% -2.13% -0.47% LOSS
2024-03-04 09:27:51 $17.3 +1.07% +0.81% +1.10% +0.66% +0.69% +1.71% +0.17% +0.17% WIN
2024-02-29 09:27:26 $16.96 -1.15% -0.94% -1.39% -1.74% -2.12% -0.06% -1.59% -0.83% LOSS
2023-02-02 09:27:00 $15.19 +0.20% -0.33% -0.89% +0.13% -1.05% +1.22% -1.28% +0.20% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PK Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 60.0% win rate, PK has -0.54% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making PK profitable.

🔧 Fix PK Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze PK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PK historically offers an average upside of +0.79% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, PK shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-1.83%) outweigh average wins (+0.31%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.54%). This suggests PK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.