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Latest signal:

PKG Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-15 → 2024-12-06

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Packaging Corp of America PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES (SIC 2650)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 28, 2000 🔗 www.packagingcorp.com
💰 Market Cap: $20.28B 👥 Employees: 15,400
Packaging Corp. of America is the third-largest containerboard and corrugated packaging manufacturer in the United States. It produces over 5 million tons of containerboard annually. The company's share of the domestic containerboard market is roughly 10%. PCA differentiates itself from larger competitors by focusing on smaller customers and operating with a high degree of flexibility.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
88.9%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+0.80%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.53%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 87.5%
Avg Gain: +0.59%
Avg Winner: +0.69%
Avg Loser: -0.17%
Best: +1.69%
Worst: -0.17%
Trades: 7/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.50%
Avg Winner: +0.98%
Avg Loser: -0.29%
Best: +2.02%
Worst: -0.45%
Trades: 5/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +0.59%
Avg Loser: -0.64%
Best: +1.26%
Worst: -1.25%
Trades: 6/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +0.46%
Avg Winner: +1.13%
Avg Loser: -0.65%
Best: +2.12%
Worst: -1.30%
Trades: 5/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 88.9%
Avg Gain: +0.80%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -0.58%
Best: +2.59%
Worst: -0.58%
Trades: 8/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.53%
Best MFE: +3.36%
Avg Time to MFE: 153 min

On average, PKG alerts reach +1.53% profit potential within 153 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.16%
Worst MAE: -2.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 35 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.16%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

9.83:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 9.83x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, PKG typically reaches +1.53% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 88.9%
Avg Gap +0.59%
Best Gap +1.57%

🏭 Sector Comparison: PAPERBOARD CONTAINERS & BOXES

How PKG compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PKG: +0.62% Sector: +0.43% +0.19%
EOD Gain
PKG: +0.86% Sector: +340.77% -339.90%
Avg MFE
PKG: +1.63% Sector: +4.39% -2.76%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PKG alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-06 09:26:02 $244.27 +0.66% +0.34% -0.23% -0.31% -0.58% +0.66% +0.45% +0.45% WIN
2024-09-26 09:27:32 $214.33 - -0.28% +0.11% - +0.23% +0.98% -0.28% +0.84% -
2022-09-06 09:25:00 $136.11 +0.23% +0.60% +0.11% +0.14% +0.05% +1.12% +0.03% +0.23% WIN
2022-08-30 09:25:00 $137.87 +0.37% - -0.44% -0.36% +0.93% +1.37% -0.96% +0.25% WIN
2022-06-06 09:25:00 $159.12 +0.69% -0.14% +0.58% +1.08% +1.08% +1.31% -0.15% +0.60% WIN
2022-06-01 09:25:00 $157.28 -0.17% -0.45% -1.25% -1.30% +0.12% +0.58% -2.15% -0.17% LOSS
2022-05-17 09:25:00 $155.54 +1.69% +0.91% +0.91% +2.12% +2.06% +2.62% +0.66% +1.57% WIN
2022-02-25 09:25:00 $145.84 +0.66% +2.02% +1.26% +1.39% +2.59% +3.36% +0.66% +0.66% WIN
2022-02-15 09:25:00 $147.0 +0.56% +1.05% +0.56% +0.92% +0.73% +1.76% +0.34% +0.88% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 88.9% Baseline on PKG

The 88.9% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push PKG's performance to 75%+.

Optimize PKG Strategy →

Why Analyze PKG with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PKG. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PKG historically offers an average upside of +1.53% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PKG Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 88.9%, PKG shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show PKG performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.80%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.