FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

POST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-08-10 → 2024-05-03

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

POST HOLDINGS, INC. GRAIN MILL PRODUCTS (SIC 2040)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 27, 2012 🔗 www.postholdings.com
💰 Market Cap: $5.07B 👥 Employees: 13,180
Post Holdings Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company with products sold through grocery, club, and drug stores, mass merchandisers, foodservice, food ingredient, and eCommerce. It operates through four reportable segments: Post Consumer Brands, focused on North American ready-to-eat cereal and granola, pet food, and nut butters; Weetabix, focused on U.K. ready-to-eat cereal, muesli, and protein-based shakes; Foodservice, focused on egg and potato products; and Refrigerated Retail, focused on side dish, egg, cheese, and sausage products. Products are sold across channels, including retailers, wholesalers, convenience stores, pet supply retailers, drug store customers, military and national restaurant chains, with revenues largely generated in the U.S.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
25.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.48%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.28%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.48%
Avg Winner: +0.54%
Avg Loser: -0.82%
Best: +0.54%
Worst: -0.95%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.82%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -2.59%
Best: +0.52%
Worst: -3.82%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.62%
Avg Winner: +0.32%
Avg Loser: -2.27%
Best: +0.32%
Worst: -3.11%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.32%
Avg Winner: +0.26%
Avg Loser: -3.18%
Best: +0.26%
Worst: -4.23%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.46%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.46%
Best: -0.33%
Worst: -4.65%
Trades: 0/4

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.28%
Best MFE: +0.65%
Avg Time to MFE: 96 min

On average, POST alerts reach +0.28% profit potential within 96 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.61%
Worst MAE: -1.56%
Avg Time to MAE: 58 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.61%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.46:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, POST typically reaches +0.28% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.26%
Best Gap +0.54%

🏭 Sector Comparison: GRAIN MILL PRODUCTS

How POST compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
POST: -0.48% Sector: +0.08% -0.57%
EOD Gain
POST: -2.46% Sector: -0.34% -2.12%
Avg MFE
POST: +0.28% Sector: +1.55% -1.27%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical POST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-05-03 09:26:13 $107.67 -0.80% -3.19% -2.71% -4.23% -4.65% +0.46% -1.31% -0.46% LOSS
2023-09-01 09:25:00 $89.71 +0.54% +0.52% +0.32% +0.26% -0.94% +0.65% +0.50% +0.54% WIN
2022-09-29 09:25:00 $83.05 -0.95% -0.78% -0.99% -1.19% -0.33% - -1.56% -0.95% LOSS
2022-08-10 09:25:00 $89.5 -0.72% -3.82% -3.11% -4.11% -3.93% - -0.07% -0.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ POST Shows Negative Expectancy

With 25.0% win rate and -0.48% average gain, POST alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider POST for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze POST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for POST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, POST historically offers an average upside of +0.28% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 POST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 25.0%, POST shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests POST may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: POST shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.48%). This suggests POST is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.