FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

PRGS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-10 → 2024-12-05

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Progress Software Corp (DE) SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 14, 1991 🔗 www.progress.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.79B 👥 Employees: 2,801
Progress Software Corp provides software operate in one operating segment: software products for the development, deployment, and management of responsible, AI-powered applications and digital experiences. The following are products: Chef, Corticon, Data Direct, Developer Tools, Flowmon, Kemp LoadMaster, MarkLogic, MOVEit, OpenEdge, Semaphore, ShareFile, Sitefinity, WhatsUp Gold. Geographical regions include the United States, Canada, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
40.0%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
-0.31%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+0.92%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.84%
Avg Winner: +0.01%
Avg Loser: -1.05%
Best: +0.01%
Worst: -1.50%
Trades: 1/4

15MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +0.56%
Avg Loser: -1.18%
Best: +0.56%
Worst: -2.04%
Trades: 1/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -0.41%
Avg Winner: +1.26%
Avg Loser: -0.83%
Best: +1.26%
Worst: -1.72%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.37%
Avg Winner: +1.19%
Avg Loser: -0.89%
Best: +1.19%
Worst: -1.38%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.31%
Avg Winner: +0.68%
Avg Loser: -0.97%
Best: +1.11%
Worst: -1.61%
Trades: 2/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.92%
Best MFE: +2.19%
Avg Time to MFE: 128 min

On average, PRGS alerts reach +0.92% profit potential within 128 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.38%
Worst MAE: -3.10%
Avg Time to MAE: 21 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.38%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.67:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, PRGS typically reaches +0.92% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.63%
Best Gap -0.11%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How PRGS compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PRGS: -0.88% Sector: -0.09% -0.79%
EOD Gain
PRGS: -0.45% Sector: +73.64% -74.09%
Avg MFE
PRGS: +1.03% Sector: +4.32% -3.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PRGS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-05 09:29:20 $69.77 -0.56% -1.59% -0.95% -0.86% -1.61% -0.21% -0.49% -0.21% LOSS
2024-05-29 09:27:25 $50.07 -1.50% -0.94% -0.42% -0.43% -0.72% +0.20% -2.15% -1.34% LOSS
2024-05-10 09:26:32 $50.82 -0.67% -0.16% -0.23% - +0.26% +0.49% -0.26% -0.26% LOSS
2024-02-28 09:28:19 $52.97 +0.01% +0.56% +1.26% +1.19% -0.59% +1.94% -0.93% -0.11% WIN
2022-05-10 09:25:00 $47.0 -1.47% -2.04% -1.72% -1.38% +1.11% +2.19% -3.10% -1.21% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PRGS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 40.0% win rate and -0.31% average gain, PRGS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PRGS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PRGS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PRGS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PRGS historically offers an average upside of +0.92% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PRGS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 40.0%, PRGS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PRGS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PRGS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: EOD (End of Day) at -0.31%). This suggests PRGS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.