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PROK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-01-11 → 2024-06-10

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

ProKidney Corp. Class A Ordinary Shares BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 12, 2022 🔗 www.prokidney.com
💰 Market Cap: $307.2M 👥 Employees: 204
ProKidney Corp is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a transformative proprietary cell therapy platform capable of treating multiple chronic kidney diseases using a patient's cells isolated from the patient intended for treatment. Its product candidate, REACT (Renal Autologous Cell Therapy) is a disease-modifying cell therapy made from a patient's renal cells. REACT has the potential to slow and stabilize the progression of chronic kidney disease. The company's pipeline consists of the development program for severe diabetic kidney disease.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
75.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-1.14%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+8.42%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: -1.14%
Avg Winner: +1.48%
Avg Loser: -9.01%
Best: +2.09%
Worst: -9.01%
Trades: 3/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -4.10%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -5.66%
Best: +0.58%
Worst: -8.68%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -7.12%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -7.12%
Best: -2.15%
Worst: -11.01%
Trades: 0/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -5.44%
Avg Winner: +7.22%
Avg Loser: -18.09%
Best: +10.67%
Worst: -20.83%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -5.32%
Avg Winner: +7.51%
Avg Loser: -9.60%
Best: +7.51%
Worst: -14.91%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.42%
Best MFE: +25.14%
Avg Time to MFE: 81 min

On average, PROK alerts reach +8.42% profit potential within 81 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.64%
Worst MAE: -7.23%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.64%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.82:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, PROK typically reaches +8.42% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap +0.77%
Best Gap +4.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How PROK compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PROK: -1.14% Sector: -0.41% -0.73%
EOD Gain
PROK: -5.32% Sector: +1233.50% -1238.82%
Avg MFE
PROK: +8.42% Sector: +6.69% +1.73%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PROK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-06-10 09:25:47 $3.36 +2.09% -3.01% -10.12% -20.83% -10.12% +2.09% -5.95% -1.49% WIN
2023-11-22 09:27:00 $1.86 +1.08% -5.30% -2.15% +3.76% -3.76% +6.45% -5.38% +0.54% WIN
2023-11-21 09:27:00 $1.73 +1.27% +0.58% -5.20% +10.67% +7.51% +25.14% -7.23% +4.05% WIN
2023-01-11 09:29:00 $8.99 -9.01% -8.68% -11.01% -15.35% -14.91% - - - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PROK Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 75.0% win rate, PROK has -1.14% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making PROK profitable.

🔧 Fix PROK Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze PROK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PROK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PROK historically offers an average upside of +8.42% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PROK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 75.0%, PROK shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-9.01%) outweigh average wins (+1.48%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PROK shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -1.14%). This suggests PROK is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.