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PRVA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-15 → 2023-05-04

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Privia Health Group, Inc. Common Stock SERVICES-HEALTH SERVICES (SIC 8000)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Apr 29, 2021 🔗 www.priviahealth.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.94B 👥 Employees: 1,140
Privia Health Group Inc is a technology-driven, national physician-enablement company. It collaborates with medical groups, health plans, and health systems to optimize physician practices, improve patient experiences, and reward doctors for delivering high-value care in both in-person and virtual care settings.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.51%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+5.23%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.51%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -1.53%
Best: +0.90%
Worst: -1.88%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +3.16%
Avg Loser: -1.42%
Best: +3.16%
Worst: -2.91%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +1.94%
Avg Loser: -1.81%
Best: +1.94%
Worst: -1.96%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.64%
Avg Winner: +3.47%
Avg Loser: -2.19%
Best: +4.96%
Worst: -3.25%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +3.66%
Avg Winner: +9.31%
Avg Loser: -1.99%
Best: +12.00%
Worst: -3.39%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +5.23%
Best MFE: +13.23%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, PRVA alerts reach +5.23% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.79%
Worst MAE: -6.08%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.79%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.92:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.92x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, PRVA typically reaches +5.23% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 4.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap +0.05%
Best Gap +0.71%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-HEALTH SERVICES

How PRVA compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PRVA: -0.51% Sector: -0.28% -0.23%
EOD Gain
PRVA: +3.66% Sector: +254.76% -251.10%
Avg MFE
PRVA: +5.23% Sector: +14.39% -9.17%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PRVA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-05-04 09:27:00 $24.49 -1.88% -0.04% -1.96% +1.98% +12.00% +13.23% -6.08% +0.04% LOSS
2022-11-17 09:25:00 $23.74 +0.13% -2.91% -1.81% -1.14% -0.59% +1.56% +1.10% +0.67% WIN
2022-09-29 09:25:00 $35.38 -1.19% -1.30% -1.67% -3.25% -3.39% -0.92% -2.23% -1.22% LOSS
2022-03-15 09:25:00 $21.17 +0.90% +3.16% +1.94% +4.96% +6.61% +7.04% +0.07% +0.71% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PRVA Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.51% average gain, PRVA alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PRVA for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PRVA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PRVA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PRVA historically offers an average upside of +5.23% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PRVA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, PRVA shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PRVA may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PRVA shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.51%). This suggests PRVA is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.