FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

PTON Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 368 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Peloton Interactive, Inc. Class A Common Stock SPORTING & ATHLETIC GOODS, NEC (SIC 3949)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 26, 2019 🔗 www.onepeloton.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.42B 👥 Employees: 2,145
Peloton Interactive Inc operates an interactive fitness platform. It operates its business in two reportable segments: Connected Fitness Products and Subscription. Connected Fitness Product derives revenue from the portfolio of Connected Fitness Products and related accessories, as well as Precor-branded fitness products, delivery and installation services, Peloton Bike portfolio rental products, extended warranty agreements, branded apparel, and commercial service contracts. Subscription revenue is derived from monthly Subscription fees. The company generates maximum revenue from the Subscription segment. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from North America and the rest from International markets.
📊
368
Total Alerts
🎯
47.5%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-0.13%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+4.37%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +1.48%
Avg Loser: -1.34%
Best: +9.40%
Worst: -4.97%
Trades: 171/183

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.10%
Avg Loser: -2.22%
Best: +13.69%
Worst: -9.69%
Trades: 174/186

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +2.65%
Avg Loser: -2.56%
Best: +13.80%
Worst: -13.47%
Trades: 174/190

60MIN

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: -0.17%
Avg Winner: +3.13%
Avg Loser: -3.01%
Best: +13.93%
Worst: -19.17%
Trades: 169/196

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.2%
Avg Gain: +0.01%
Avg Winner: +4.75%
Avg Loser: -4.16%
Best: +25.54%
Worst: -24.27%
Trades: 170/193

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.37%
Best MFE: +31.48%
Avg Time to MFE: 115 min

On average, PTON alerts reach +4.37% profit potential within 115 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.48%
Worst MAE: -8.01%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.48%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.95:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.95x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 368 alerts, PTON typically reaches +4.37% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 368
Gap Up % 38.6%
Avg Gap -0.14%
Best Gap +2.15%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SPORTING & ATHLETIC GOODS, NEC

How PTON compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
PTON: +0.02% Sector: -0.09% +0.11%
EOD Gain
PTON: +0.07% Sector: +111.02% -110.95%
Avg MFE
PTON: +4.34% Sector: +4.57% -0.23%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical PTON alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:51 $10.08 -0.15% -1.93% -2.93% -3.72% -3.08% +1.69% -0.30% +0.20% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:27:17 $8.55 +0.35% +0.11% +0.64% +1.46% +7.37% +9.01% -0.35% +0.35% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:58 $8.75 +0.46% +0.17% +0.21% +0.97% -0.11% +2.29% -1.94% -1.14% WIN
2025-02-10 09:28:44 $8.54 +1.29% +2.75% +1.00% +4.16% +0.35% +7.61% -0.59% +0.12% WIN
2025-02-07 09:25:09 $8.54 +1.76% -2.02% +0.64% -1.81% -1.99% +3.40% +0.47% +1.41% WIN
2025-02-06 09:26:16 $8.87 +3.83% +3.61% +0.17% -2.37% -4.28% +9.98% -1.01% +0.45% WIN
2025-02-03 09:27:46 $7.52 -0.93% -1.53% -1.99% -0.94% -2.66% +1.06% +0.13% +0.13% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:28:54 $8.25 -0.79% +2.06% +2.06% +3.15% -0.36% +3.70% -1.45% -0.48% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:28:45 $8.5 -1.12% -2.59% -1.67% -0.18% -1.76% +1.76% -2.82% -0.71% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:29:33 $8.66 -1.44% -1.50% -0.92% -2.25% -4.50% -0.17% -2.54% -0.46% LOSS
2025-01-15 09:29:40 $9.13 +0.77% -0.88% +0.05% +0.38% -1.75% +1.64% -0.33% +0.11% WIN
2024-12-30 09:28:27 $9.1 -0.93% -1.43% -1.36% -2.85% -1.54% +1.70% -0.55% +0.44% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:27:59 $9.02 +0.11% +2.05% +1.77% +2.72% +3.99% +5.99% -1.00% +0.44% WIN
2024-12-19 09:28:11 $9.6 +1.35% +1.09% -0.52% -1.30% -3.85% +1.56% -0.99% -0.10% WIN
2024-12-13 09:28:57 $9.5 +0.42% +0.11% -1.79% -0.32% +0.84% +2.11% -2.74% -0.84% WIN
2024-12-12 09:29:43 $9.74 +1.75% +3.03% +1.64% +1.18% -4.00% +3.29% -0.62% +0.10% WIN
2024-12-06 09:26:55 $10.05 -0.35% +1.69% +4.08% +4.23% -0.40% +5.32% -1.49% -1.09% LOSS
2024-12-05 09:27:14 $9.44 +1.17% -0.42% -0.76% -0.11% +2.22% +3.02% -1.69% +0.64% WIN
2024-11-29 09:26:28 $9.81 +0.41% +2.14% +3.06% +3.62% +5.40% +5.91% -0.51% +0.51% WIN
2024-11-25 09:25:59 $9.9 -0.81% -1.87% -3.69% -2.07% -3.23% +0.81% +0.30% -0.71% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ PTON Shows Negative Expectancy

With 47.5% win rate and -0.13% average gain, PTON alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider PTON for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze PTON with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for PTON. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, PTON historically offers an average upside of +4.37% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 PTON Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 47.5%, PTON shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests PTON may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: PTON shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -0.13%). This suggests PTON is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.