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REAL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 69 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-04 → 2025-02-10

⚠️ Small sample size (69 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

The RealReal, Inc. Common Stock RETAIL-MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL (SIC 5900)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 28, 2019 🔗 www.therealreal.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.78B 👥 Employees: 3,011
The RealReal is the largest pure-play luxury resale platform in the US, generating $1.8 billion in 2024 gross merchandise volume and addressing a niche (personal luxury resale) that had previously been serviced by inefficient upscale boutiques and local pawn shops. The company generates revenue via consignment and first-party sales on its online marketplace, and through a small volume of direct sales. With a hands-on approach that actively sources inventory and authenticates every item on its platform, The RealReal is able to justify much higher take rates than peers, working out to roughly 36% of net merchandise value in 2024, which excludes returns, cancellations, and first-party sales.
📊
69
Total Alerts
🎯
52.2%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+0.21%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+7.35%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 37.7%
Avg Gain: -0.62%
Avg Winner: +2.00%
Avg Loser: -2.31%
Best: +6.62%
Worst: -12.26%
Trades: 26/41

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.7%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +3.69%
Avg Loser: -4.44%
Best: +10.65%
Worst: -13.87%
Trades: 35/33

30MIN

Win Rate: 52.2%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +4.42%
Avg Loser: -4.38%
Best: +16.00%
Worst: -13.19%
Trades: 36/33

60MIN

Win Rate: 52.2%
Avg Gain: +0.28%
Avg Winner: +5.87%
Avg Loser: -5.81%
Best: +20.70%
Worst: -15.00%
Trades: 36/33

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.9%
Avg Gain: +0.59%
Avg Winner: +9.00%
Avg Loser: -6.44%
Best: +28.20%
Worst: -26.81%
Trades: 31/37

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.35%
Best MFE: +28.69%
Avg Time to MFE: 107 min

On average, REAL alerts reach +7.35% profit potential within 107 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.82%
Worst MAE: -10.14%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.82%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.61:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.61x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 69 alerts, REAL typically reaches +7.35% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 5.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 69
Gap Up % 18.8%
Avg Gap -0.77%
Best Gap +2.11%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RETAIL-MISCELLANEOUS RETAIL

How REAL compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
REAL: -0.62% Sector: -0.66% +0.04%
EOD Gain
REAL: +0.59% Sector: +0.39% +0.20%
Avg MFE
REAL: +7.35% Sector: +7.72% -0.37%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical REAL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-10 09:25:55 $8.3 -3.07% -6.87% -7.65% -3.73% -3.25% -0.42% -3.13% -1.20% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:29:27 $7.44 +4.64% +9.95% +16.00% +20.70% +20.43% +24.87% -3.63% -0.40% WIN
2024-12-05 09:27:48 $6.08 +2.14% +2.80% +3.04% +1.97% +0.66% +4.93% +0.66% +1.15% WIN
2024-10-28 09:25:37 $2.89 -3.46% -3.98% -3.63% -3.29% +3.11% +4.50% -6.23% -1.73% LOSS
2024-08-07 09:28:44 $3.1 -12.26% -13.87% -9.31% -14.84% -23.23% -1.29% -1.61% -3.23% LOSS
2024-03-06 09:28:52 $3.87 -1.03% +2.07% -2.62% -12.79% -5.43% +5.94% -5.14% -1.03% LOSS
2024-03-05 09:27:44 $3.18 -0.94% +3.62% +8.17% +9.59% +17.30% +24.84% -3.14% - LOSS
2024-03-04 09:29:17 $2.74 +1.46% +8.76% +14.05% +16.09% +16.79% +18.24% - +0.73% WIN
2023-12-22 09:27:00 $2.25 -1.33% +0.00% -0.44% -1.33% -2.67% +1.78% -2.44% -0.89% LOSS
2023-11-15 09:27:00 $2.19 +2.82% +4.57% +4.79% +6.85% +0.46% +8.68% -0.91% -0.91% WIN
2023-11-08 09:29:00 $1.89 +2.38% +2.12% +6.26% +8.20% +5.82% +17.99% -1.59% +1.06% WIN
2023-10-30 09:27:00 $1.26 +3.17% +3.97% +1.19% +3.57% +6.35% +8.73% -0.79% - WIN
2023-10-09 09:25:00 $1.62 +2.47% +1.58% +0.93% +1.12% -1.23% +3.70% -4.32% -0.62% WIN
2023-09-12 09:28:00 $2.47 -0.81% +2.43% +2.83% +0.40% +0.40% +4.25% -1.62% -0.40% LOSS
2023-07-14 09:25:00 $2.92 -3.77% -3.77% -6.17% -12.62% -18.15% -0.00% -0.00% -2.40% LOSS
2023-07-12 09:27:00 $2.77 -0.36% -2.54% -6.47% -5.05% -5.23% +0.36% - -0.36% LOSS
2023-07-11 09:26:00 $2.19 +6.62% +8.22% +8.22% +14.84% +20.55% +27.85% +1.37% +1.83% WIN
2023-06-29 09:28:00 $1.91 +2.17% +1.83% +5.18% +6.81% +7.85% +10.99% -2.09% - WIN
2023-05-23 09:26:00 $1.47 -0.34% -3.40% -1.70% -0.34% -2.04% +2.72% -4.42% -3.40% LOSS
2023-05-19 09:25:00 $1.49 -0.34% -1.01% -2.35% -4.72% -6.71% -0.34% -1.95% -1.34% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 52.2% Baseline on REAL

The 52.2% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push REAL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize REAL Strategy →

Why Analyze REAL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for REAL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, REAL historically offers an average upside of +7.35% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 REAL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 52.2%, REAL shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show REAL performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.21%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.