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REPL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-12-07 → 2023-12-06

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jul 20, 2018 🔗 www.replimune.com
💰 Market Cap: $604.8M 👥 Employees: 479
Replimune Group Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. It uses a proprietary RPx platform to design and develop product candidates that are intended to maximally activate the immune system against solid tumors. The RPx platform is based on a proprietary, engineered strain of herpes simplex virus 1, or HSV-1, backbone with payloads added to maximize immunogenic cell death and the induction of a systemic anti-tumor immune response. The company focuses on developing oncolytic immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. Its pipeline products include RP1, RP2, and RP3. The company operates in USA and UK, majority of revenue from USA.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
80.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
+0.92%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+7.54%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: -1.10%
Avg Winner: +0.80%
Avg Loser: -3.94%
Best: +2.06%
Worst: -5.33%
Trades: 3/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +0.92%
Avg Winner: +2.59%
Avg Loser: -5.80%
Best: +5.15%
Worst: -5.80%
Trades: 4/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +2.03%
Avg Winner: +5.64%
Avg Loser: -3.39%
Best: +10.66%
Worst: -5.53%
Trades: 3/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.55%
Avg Winner: +3.63%
Avg Loser: -4.07%
Best: +4.64%
Worst: -5.33%
Trades: 3/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 80.0%
Avg Gain: +4.09%
Avg Winner: +6.32%
Avg Loser: -4.80%
Best: +8.88%
Worst: -4.80%
Trades: 4/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.54%
Best MFE: +15.68%
Avg Time to MFE: 174 min

On average, REPL alerts reach +7.54% profit potential within 174 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -4.00%
Worst MAE: -6.46%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 4.00%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.88:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, REPL typically reaches +7.54% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 40.0%
Avg Gap -1.27%
Best Gap +1.05%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How REPL compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
REPL: -1.10% Sector: -0.41% -0.69%
EOD Gain
REPL: +4.09% Sector: +1233.50% -1229.41%
Avg MFE
REPL: +7.54% Sector: +6.69% +0.86%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical REPL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-12-06 09:26:00 $6.76 +0.15% +1.63% +0.92% +2.51% +8.88% +12.40% -1.18% +0.59% WIN
2023-12-05 09:26:00 $6.25 -2.56% +3.20% +10.66% +4.64% +8.00% +15.68% -5.76% -2.40% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:29:00 $15.01 -5.33% -5.80% -5.53% -5.33% -4.80% -2.17% -6.46% -3.73% LOSS
2022-12-09 09:25:00 $23.75 +2.06% +5.15% +5.35% +3.75% +5.26% +6.36% -1.47% +1.05% WIN
2022-12-07 09:25:00 $22.39 +0.18% +0.40% -1.25% -2.81% +3.13% +5.45% -5.14% -1.88% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 80.0% Baseline on REPL

The 80.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push REPL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize REPL Strategy →

Why Analyze REPL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for REPL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, REPL historically offers an average upside of +7.54% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 REPL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 80.0%, REPL shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show REPL performs best on the 15MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.92%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.