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RGNX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-03-05 → 2025-01-14

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 17, 2015 🔗 www.regenxbio.com
💰 Market Cap: $698.1M 👥 Employees: 353
Regenxbio Inc is a biotechnology company. Its main activity is the development and commercialization of recombinant adeno associated virus gene therapy to correct an underlying genetic defect. The diseases that the Regenxbio platform targets are metabolic (homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia), neurodegenerative conditions (mucopolysaccharidosis), and retinal diseases (wet age-related macular degeneration, X-linked retinitis pigmentosa). The company derives the majority of its revenue from the United States.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-2.99%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+2.05%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.90%
Avg Winner: +0.52%
Avg Loser: -6.07%
Best: +0.52%
Worst: -11.51%
Trades: 1/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -2.99%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -6.91%
Best: +1.40%
Worst: -11.15%
Trades: 2/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -7.18%
Avg Winner: +0.50%
Avg Loser: -9.74%
Best: +0.50%
Worst: -18.87%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -7.90%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -10.82%
Best: +0.86%
Worst: -20.39%
Trades: 1/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -6.70%
Avg Winner: +0.13%
Avg Loser: -8.98%
Best: +0.13%
Worst: -13.19%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.05%
Best MFE: +4.47%
Avg Time to MFE: 5 min

On average, RGNX alerts reach +2.05% profit potential within 5 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.87%
Worst MAE: -5.31%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.1:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, RGNX typically reaches +2.05% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap -0.74%
Best Gap +0.78%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How RGNX compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RGNX: -2.90% Sector: -0.41% -2.49%
EOD Gain
RGNX: -6.70% Sector: +1233.50% -1240.20%
Avg MFE
RGNX: +2.05% Sector: +6.69% -4.64%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RGNX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-14 09:26:55 $7.16 +0.52% +1.40% -2.65% -0.14% -1.54% +4.47% -5.31% +0.14% WIN
2024-11-18 09:25:38 $11.56 -11.51% -2.68% -7.70% -11.94% -12.20% - -0.61% -3.89% LOSS
2024-03-07 09:27:05 $23.2 - +0.47% +0.50% +0.86% +0.13% +2.16% -0.86% +0.78% -
2024-03-05 09:27:22 $28.35 -0.63% -11.15% -18.87% -20.39% -13.19% +1.59% -0.71% +0.04% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ RGNX Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -2.99% average gain, RGNX alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider RGNX for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze RGNX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RGNX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RGNX historically offers an average upside of +2.05% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RGNX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, RGNX shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests RGNX may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: RGNX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -2.99%). This suggests RGNX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.