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RVMD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 9 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-07-20 → 2024-12-04

⚠️ Small sample size (9 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Feb 13, 2020 🔗 www.revmed.com
💰 Market Cap: $22.74B 👥 Employees: 809
Revolution Medicines Inc is a clinical-stage precision oncology company focused on developing novel targeted therapies to inhibit elusive, frontier targets within notorious growth and survival pathways, with particular emphasis on the RAS and mTOR signaling pathways. The company's products includes RMC-4630, a SHP2 inhibitor, RAS(ON) portfolio and SOS1 and 4EBP1/mTORC1 programs.
📊
9
Total Alerts
🎯
55.6%
Win Rate (15MIN)
💰
-1.48%
Avg Gain (15MIN)
🚀
+4.88%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: -2.20%
Avg Winner: +0.96%
Avg Loser: -4.72%
Best: +1.65%
Worst: -9.16%
Trades: 4/5

15MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -1.48%
Avg Winner: +2.02%
Avg Loser: -5.86%
Best: +3.17%
Worst: -10.45%
Trades: 5/4

30MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -1.03%
Avg Winner: +3.02%
Avg Loser: -6.08%
Best: +5.54%
Worst: -11.81%
Trades: 5/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 55.6%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +5.16%
Avg Loser: -6.60%
Best: +8.96%
Worst: -16.22%
Trades: 5/4

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.4%
Avg Gain: +1.86%
Avg Winner: +7.07%
Avg Loser: -2.32%
Best: +11.27%
Worst: -6.12%
Trades: 4/5

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.88%
Best MFE: +13.30%
Avg Time to MFE: 175 min

On average, RVMD alerts reach +4.88% profit potential within 175 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.19%
Worst MAE: -13.04%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.19%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.53:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 9 alerts, RVMD typically reaches +4.88% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 9
Gap Up % 55.6%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +4.42%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How RVMD compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
RVMD: -2.20% Sector: -0.41% -1.78%
EOD Gain
RVMD: +1.86% Sector: +1233.50% -1231.65%
Avg MFE
RVMD: +4.88% Sector: +6.69% -1.81%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical RVMD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-04 09:25:22 $47.71 +0.61% +2.01% +2.76% +3.96% +1.13% +4.55% -3.33% +0.65% WIN
2024-10-01 09:29:35 $45.4 -1.12% -1.94% -1.05% -1.66% -0.51% +0.59% -2.53% -0.18% LOSS
2024-07-15 09:26:05 $49.0 -9.16% -10.45% -8.20% -8.04% -6.12% -0.80% -13.04% -3.16% LOSS
2023-11-15 09:25:00 $21.75 -4.60% -3.45% -3.26% -0.46% -1.89% +3.40% -4.87% -4.60% LOSS
2023-11-01 09:25:00 $19.39 +1.65% +1.86% +2.17% +3.61% +4.95% +6.29% -0.39% +2.17% WIN
2023-10-23 09:29:00 $18.8 -8.38% -7.61% -11.81% -16.22% -2.37% +0.80% +0.11% +0.59% LOSS
2023-03-03 09:25:00 $22.94 +0.57% +2.48% +5.54% +8.96% +10.94% +13.30% -0.09% +0.22% WIN
2023-02-28 09:26:00 $26.95 +1.00% +0.56% +1.48% +2.80% -0.70% +4.42% -3.30% +4.42% WIN
2022-07-20 09:25:00 $21.12 -0.33% +3.17% +3.15% +6.49% +11.27% +11.36% -1.28% -0.24% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ RVMD Shows Negative Expectancy

Despite a 55.6% win rate, RVMD has -1.48% average expectancy because losses outweigh wins. Use the app to find filters that improve the win size or reduce loss size, making RVMD profitable.

🔧 Fix RVMD Risk/Reward →

Why Analyze RVMD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for RVMD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, RVMD historically offers an average upside of +4.88% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 RVMD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 55.6%, RVMD shows negative expectancy despite winning more often - average losses (-5.86%) outweigh average wins (+2.02%). This suggests the need for tighter stops or better entry timing.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: RVMD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 15MIN at -1.48%). This suggests RVMD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.