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SCHD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 117 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-11-10 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Oct 20, 2011
📊
117
Total Alerts
🎯
43.6%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-0.10%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.42%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 34.2%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +0.15%
Avg Loser: -0.19%
Best: +0.50%
Worst: -0.67%
Trades: 40/75

15MIN

Win Rate: 36.8%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.22%
Avg Loser: -0.29%
Best: +0.78%
Worst: -0.74%
Trades: 43/74

30MIN

Win Rate: 35.9%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.28%
Avg Loser: -0.31%
Best: +0.72%
Worst: -0.88%
Trades: 42/74

60MIN

Win Rate: 43.6%
Avg Gain: -0.10%
Avg Winner: +0.28%
Avg Loser: -0.41%
Best: +0.93%
Worst: -1.08%
Trades: 51/63

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 32.5%
Avg Gain: -9.21%
Avg Winner: +0.55%
Avg Loser: -14.26%
Best: +1.41%
Worst: -67.43%
Trades: 38/77

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.42%
Best MFE: +1.86%
Avg Time to MFE: 130 min

On average, SCHD alerts reach +0.42% profit potential within 130 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.23%
Worst MAE: -0.95%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.23%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.87:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 117 alerts, SCHD typically reaches +0.42% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 117
Gap Up % 26.5%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +0.27%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SCHD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:41 $27.87 +0.20% +0.47% +0.30% +0.09% -0.29% +0.50% -0.04% - WIN
2025-02-13 09:27:40 $27.75 -0.22% -0.20% -0.34% -0.20% +0.36% +0.40% -0.36% +0.04% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:29:01 $27.67 -0.40% -0.27% -0.11% +0.02% -0.07% +0.25% -0.43% -0.23% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:26:48 $27.66 -0.11% -0.05% +0.02% +0.07% +0.76% +0.80% -0.18% - LOSS
2025-02-10 09:26:13 $27.68 -0.09% -0.56% -0.40% -0.43% - +0.07% -0.11% - LOSS
2025-02-07 09:27:28 $27.82 -0.31% -0.41% -0.18% -0.43% -0.93% +0.04% -0.03% -0.07% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:29:58 $27.98 -0.15% -0.18% -0.41% -0.57% -0.82% +0.07% -0.04% - LOSS
2025-02-05 09:29:30 $27.81 -0.04% +0.13% -0.00% +0.31% +0.50% +0.54% -0.32% - LOSS
2025-02-04 09:26:55 $27.69 -0.09% +0.00% -0.05% +0.04% +0.25% +0.40% -0.29% -0.14% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:25:10 $27.55 -0.11% -0.11% -0.49% +0.48% +0.62% +1.01% -0.54% -0.04% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:26:19 $28.03 -0.15% +0.05% -0.05% - -0.71% +0.21% -0.21% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:29:50 $28.0 -0.17% -0.32% -0.29% -0.45% -0.07% +0.32% -0.48% - LOSS
2025-01-29 09:26:35 $28.09 +0.11% +0.21% +0.31% +0.34% -0.28% +0.46% -0.04% - WIN
2025-01-28 09:27:45 $28.34 -0.09% +0.09% -0.49% -0.46% -0.95% +0.14% -0.28% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:29:44 $28.14 +0.50% +0.78% +0.55% +0.50% +1.10% +1.10% +0.04% +0.07% WIN
2025-01-24 09:25:12 $28.07 - +0.07% -0.23% +0.07% - +0.21% -0.25% -0.14% -
2025-01-23 09:28:14 $27.97 -0.05% -0.13% +0.05% -0.09% +0.43% +0.54% -0.21% -0.04% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:28:24 $28.17 -0.43% -0.55% -0.67% -0.50% -0.89% - -0.11% -0.07% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:25:24 $28.07 +0.07% +0.52% +0.48% +0.43% +0.53% +0.78% -0.04% -0.04% WIN
2025-01-17 09:28:16 $27.92 -0.09% +0.07% +0.09% +0.21% +0.25% +0.32% -0.18% +0.11% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ SCHD Shows Negative Expectancy

With 43.6% win rate and -0.10% average gain, SCHD alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SCHD for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SCHD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SCHD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SCHD historically offers an average upside of +0.42% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SCHD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 43.6%, SCHD shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SCHD may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SCHD shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -0.10%). This suggests SCHD is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.