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SHOP Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 440 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-24 → 2025-02-12

🏢 Company Profile

Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE (SIC 7372)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: May 21, 2015 🔗 www.shopify.com
💰 Market Cap: $179.51B 👥 Employees: 8,100
Shopify offers an e-commerce platform mainly to small and medium-sized businesses. The firm has two segments. The subscription solutions segment allows Shopify merchants to conduct e-commerce on a variety of platforms, including the company's website, physical stores, pop-up stores, kiosks, social networks (Facebook), and Amazon. The merchant solutions segment offers add-on products for the platform that facilitate e-commerce and include Shopify Payments, Shopify Shipping, and Shopify Capital.
📊
440
Total Alerts
🎯
54.6%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.13%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.79%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 54.6%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +0.79%
Avg Loser: -0.67%
Best: +4.10%
Worst: -3.49%
Trades: 239/198

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.6%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -1.21%
Best: +6.23%
Worst: -6.27%
Trades: 213/222

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.2%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.71%
Avg Loser: -1.49%
Best: +8.49%
Worst: -7.78%
Trades: 220/218

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.9%
Avg Gain: +0.13%
Avg Winner: +2.08%
Avg Loser: -1.67%
Best: +10.14%
Worst: -8.89%
Trades: 210/228

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 45.9%
Avg Gain: -3.11%
Avg Winner: +2.84%
Avg Loser: -8.16%
Best: +13.49%
Worst: -90.71%
Trades: 202/238

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.79%
Best MFE: +23.60%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, SHOP alerts reach +2.79% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.96%
Worst MAE: -7.83%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.96%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.89:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.89x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 440 alerts, SHOP typically reaches +2.79% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 440
Gap Up % 45.9%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +5.52%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

How SHOP compares to 137 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SHOP: +0.13% Sector: -0.09% +0.22%
EOD Gain
SHOP: -3.13% Sector: +73.64% -76.76%
Avg MFE
SHOP: +2.79% Sector: +4.32% -1.53%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SHOP alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-12 09:28:23 $118.95 -0.88% -0.20% +0.69% +0.06% +1.29% +2.98% -1.89% +0.08% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:26:25 $121.8 +1.15% -3.75% -2.37% -3.20% +1.47% +3.41% -5.83% +0.39% WIN
2025-02-10 09:26:06 $121.12 +1.56% +0.73% -0.47% -0.17% -1.01% +1.89% -0.64% +0.28% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:22 $110.57 +2.88% +2.70% +1.91% +1.99% +3.45% +4.72% -0.32% +1.18% WIN
2025-01-06 09:28:10 $112.09 -0.08% +0.07% -0.12% -0.02% +1.92% +1.96% -0.61% +0.13% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:26:25 $105.1 +0.66% +0.56% +0.34% +2.85% +3.66% +4.62% -0.57% +0.19% WIN
2024-12-19 09:26:33 $111.0 -0.87% -0.90% -1.81% -2.65% -3.54% +0.40% -1.10% +0.27% LOSS
2024-12-06 09:28:34 $116.59 +2.44% +2.57% +2.68% +3.38% +1.53% +3.54% -0.21% +0.11% WIN
2024-12-03 09:25:50 $111.87 +0.58% +0.83% +0.39% +0.01% -0.01% +1.72% +0.21% +0.79% WIN
2024-12-02 09:26:09 $115.48 -0.78% -3.25% -2.85% -3.10% -2.16% +0.44% -0.52% -0.23% LOSS
2024-11-25 09:29:51 $109.02 -0.06% +0.91% +0.84% +0.96% +1.82% +3.15% -0.36% +0.26% LOSS
2024-11-14 09:29:53 $115.16 -0.94% -3.31% -4.28% -4.04% -5.28% +0.11% -1.22% +0.11% LOSS
2024-11-13 09:27:25 $107.83 +0.68% +1.42% +2.80% +2.73% +6.73% +7.22% -1.53% -0.31% WIN
2024-11-12 09:26:30 $107.42 +0.87% +2.90% +2.90% +5.37% +1.40% +6.60% -1.32% +0.09% WIN
2024-11-11 09:27:14 $89.0 +2.32% +2.31% +1.84% +1.75% +1.11% +3.55% -0.33% -0.06% WIN
2024-08-15 09:26:43 $73.4 +0.55% +0.59% +1.41% +0.99% +1.98% +2.06% -0.55% -0.52% WIN
2024-08-09 09:25:52 $67.95 +1.60% +0.29% +0.35% +0.99% +1.99% +2.02% -0.79% +0.31% WIN
2024-08-08 09:28:52 $64.72 +1.02% +0.12% +1.62% +2.70% +5.92% +6.27% -1.25% -0.74% WIN
2024-08-07 09:27:58 $64.35 +3.82% +3.33% +2.61% +4.07% -0.71% +5.33% -1.18% +0.23% WIN
2024-08-06 09:27:55 $53.2 -0.88% -0.75% +0.23% +0.52% +1.92% +3.18% -1.62% -0.11% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 54.6% Baseline on SHOP

The 54.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SHOP's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SHOP Strategy →

Why Analyze SHOP with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SHOP. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SHOP historically offers an average upside of +2.79% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SHOP Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 54.6%, SHOP shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SHOP performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.13%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.