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SIRI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 157 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-04

🏢 Company Profile

Sirius XM Holdings, Inc RADIO BROADCASTING STATIONS (SIC 4832)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Sep 13, 1994 🔗 www.siriusxm.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.90B 👥 Employees: 5,515
Sirius XM operates almost exclusively in the US through its SiriusXM and Pandora audio services. SiriusXM is primarily a satellite radio service that offers nationwide coverage and mostly ad-free listening, with proprietary channels and exclusive content. It makes agreements with automakers to install its radios in vehicles and give trial services to vehicle buyers, which have traditionally fed its subscriber base. The company provides the service through a handful of geostationary satellites that it owns and operates; it now offers a streaming SiriusXM option as well. Pandora, which makes up a much smaller portion of revenue and profit, offers a subscription and ad-supported streaming music service that competes with industry giants like Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music.
📊
157
Total Alerts
🎯
76.4%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+498.55%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+2.80%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 41.4%
Avg Gain: -0.07%
Avg Winner: +1.17%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +5.78%
Worst: -6.55%
Trades: 65/83

15MIN

Win Rate: 43.3%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.78%
Avg Loser: -1.46%
Best: +16.29%
Worst: -10.33%
Trades: 68/86

30MIN

Win Rate: 45.2%
Avg Gain: -0.30%
Avg Winner: +1.64%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +11.57%
Worst: -14.61%
Trades: 71/83

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.6%
Avg Gain: -0.24%
Avg Winner: +1.95%
Avg Loser: -2.05%
Best: +14.71%
Worst: -16.88%
Trades: 70/85

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 76.4%
Avg Gain: +498.55%
Avg Winner: +653.23%
Avg Loser: -3.40%
Best: +1322.59%
Worst: -14.36%
Trades: 120/34

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.80%
Best MFE: +48.27%
Avg Time to MFE: 102 min

On average, SIRI alerts reach +2.80% profit potential within 102 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.00%
Worst MAE: -6.22%
Avg Time to MAE: 9 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.00%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.8:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.8x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 157 alerts, SIRI typically reaches +2.80% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 157
Gap Up % 32.5%
Avg Gap -0.09%
Best Gap +2.50%

🏭 Sector Comparison: RADIO BROADCASTING STATIONS

How SIRI compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SIRI: -0.07% Sector: +0.04% -0.11%
EOD Gain
SIRI: +498.55% Sector: +457.77% +40.78%
Avg MFE
SIRI: +2.80% Sector: +3.87% -1.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SIRI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-04 09:27:54 $24.88 -0.98% -1.87% -2.94% -2.61% -1.04% +0.08% -0.24% -0.24% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:28:26 $21.98 +4.69% +2.59% +2.66% +4.78% +5.14% +6.73% +0.05% +0.05% WIN
2024-12-23 09:29:11 $23.67 -0.16% -0.40% -0.51% -1.18% -1.73% +0.79% -2.32% -0.76% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:25:30 $21.18 +0.19% +3.42% +4.25% +5.67% +8.97% +9.54% -0.99% -0.14% WIN
2024-12-10 09:27:29 $27.42 -2.99% -4.05% -4.85% -4.34% -8.02% +1.53% -1.90% -0.98% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:28:11 $26.77 +0.04% -0.67% -0.93% -0.67% -2.13% +0.93% +0.11% +0.11% WIN
2024-11-01 09:27:08 $27.34 +2.82% +4.72% +4.89% +3.55% +1.13% +5.49% -0.44% -0.26% WIN
2024-10-31 09:26:23 $26.53 +1.27% +0.92% +0.81% +0.94% +0.49% +2.94% -1.13% +1.77% WIN
2024-10-21 09:26:19 $28.25 -0.37% -3.47% -2.76% -3.19% -3.79% +0.18% -0.39% -0.21% LOSS
2024-10-15 09:27:22 $27.53 -0.84% -0.69% -0.58% +0.44% -1.63% +0.76% -1.67% -0.51% LOSS
2024-10-14 09:29:58 $26.38 +0.08% +1.82% +1.48% +1.21% +1.97% +3.45% -1.02% -0.49% WIN
2024-09-23 09:25:11 $25.2 -0.04% +2.36% +2.32% -0.79% +1.57% +3.78% -1.03% -0.75% LOSS
2024-09-18 09:29:05 $23.88 -0.80% -0.13% -0.84% -1.55% -2.55% +0.38% -2.89% +0.13% LOSS
2024-09-09 09:26:51 $2.79 -2.52% -3.15% -1.44% -1.25% +856.99% -0.36% -0.72% -1.08% LOSS
2024-09-06 09:28:19 $2.89 -0.76% -2.60% -2.60% -4.16% -5.54% +0.35% -1.38% - LOSS
2024-09-05 09:27:10 $2.98 -1.01% -1.51% -1.34% -1.17% +876.51% - -0.67% -0.34% LOSS
2024-09-04 09:29:24 $3.11 -0.16% -0.16% -0.80% -1.13% -5.79% +0.96% -0.96% -0.32% LOSS
2024-08-30 09:26:29 $3.29 -0.30% -1.18% -0.61% -1.22% +900.00% +0.30% -0.61% -0.30% LOSS
2024-08-29 09:26:06 $3.26 -0.61% -0.92% - +0.77% +900.00% +1.53% -1.23% -0.61% LOSS
2024-08-28 09:29:56 $3.19 -0.31% +0.47% +0.78% +0.31% +915.67% +2.51% -0.94% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 76.4% Baseline on SIRI

The 76.4% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SIRI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SIRI Strategy →

Why Analyze SIRI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SIRI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SIRI historically offers an average upside of +2.80% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SIRI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 76.4%, SIRI shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SIRI performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +498.55%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.