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SJT Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 3 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-01-25 → 2023-04-18

⚠️ Small sample size (3 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust UBI OIL ROYALTY TRADERS (SIC 6792)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 24, 1980 🔗 www.sjbrt.com
💰 Market Cap: $282.0M 👥 Employees: 495
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is an energy sector royalty trust in the United States. It owns approximately 75% net profit interest in a large number of natural gas properties in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. About 98% of the royalties San Juan collects come from natural gas, with the balance coming from oil.
📊
3
Total Alerts
🎯
33.3%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
-3.06%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+0.68%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -1.10%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -1.10%
Best: -0.55%
Worst: -2.05%
Trades: 0/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -2.09%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: -0.37%
Worst: -5.07%
Trades: 0/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 0.0%
Avg Gain: -3.51%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -3.51%
Best: -0.92%
Worst: -7.99%
Trades: 0/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -3.06%
Avg Winner: +0.00%
Avg Loser: -4.59%
Best: +0.00%
Worst: -7.61%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -2.11%
Avg Winner: +1.66%
Avg Loser: -3.99%
Best: +1.66%
Worst: -7.71%
Trades: 1/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.68%
Best MFE: +2.03%
Avg Time to MFE: 103 min

On average, SJT alerts reach +0.68% profit potential within 103 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.17%
Worst MAE: -1.56%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.17%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.58:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 3 alerts, SJT typically reaches +0.68% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.5% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 3
Gap Up % 0.0%
Avg Gap -0.32%
Best Gap +0.00%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OIL ROYALTY TRADERS

How SJT compares to 3 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SJT: -1.10% Sector: +1.39% -2.49%
EOD Gain
SJT: -2.11% Sector: -4.46% +2.35%
Avg MFE
SJT: +0.68% Sector: +12.70% -12.02%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SJT alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-04-18 09:27:00 $10.25 -2.05% -5.07% -7.99% -7.61% -7.71% - -1.56% -0.49% LOSS
2023-04-03 09:28:00 $10.79 -0.70% -0.83% -1.62% -1.58% -0.28% - -0.83% -0.46% LOSS
2023-01-25 09:27:00 $10.85 -0.55% -0.37% -0.92% +0.00% +1.66% +2.03% -1.11% - LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ SJT Shows Negative Expectancy

With 33.3% win rate and -3.06% average gain, SJT alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SJT for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SJT with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SJT. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SJT historically offers an average upside of +0.68% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SJT Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 33.3%, SJT shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SJT may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SJT shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 60MIN at -3.06%). This suggests SJT is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.