FILTRIX Logo FILTRIX Find Your Edge →

Latest signal:

SKWD Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 6 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-06-08 → 2024-10-03

⚠️ Small sample size (6 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE (SIC 6331)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jan 13, 2023 🔗 www.skywardinsurance.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.98B 👥 Employees: 580
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc is a specialty insurance company that delivers commercial property and casualty products and solutions on a non-admitted and admitted basis. The firm has one reportable segment through which it offers a broad array of insurance coverages to several market niches. It operates multiple lines of business, including general liability, excess liability, professional liability, commercial auto, group accident, health, property, surety, and workers' compensation.
📊
6
Total Alerts
🎯
83.3%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.93%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+2.02%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.40%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -0.03%
Best: +1.04%
Worst: -0.03%
Trades: 4/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.34%
Avg Winner: +1.14%
Avg Loser: -0.88%
Best: +1.44%
Worst: -1.12%
Trades: 3/2

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +1.05%
Avg Loser: -1.07%
Best: +1.68%
Worst: -1.14%
Trades: 3/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 83.3%
Avg Gain: +0.93%
Avg Winner: +1.12%
Avg Loser: +0.00%
Best: +1.65%
Worst: +0.00%
Trades: 5/0

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 66.7%
Avg Gain: +0.86%
Avg Winner: +1.55%
Avg Loser: -0.51%
Best: +2.19%
Worst: -0.93%
Trades: 4/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.02%
Best MFE: +3.09%
Avg Time to MFE: 190 min

On average, SKWD alerts reach +2.02% profit potential within 190 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.45%
Worst MAE: -1.42%
Avg Time to MAE: 11 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.45%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

4.52:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 4.52x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 6 alerts, SKWD typically reaches +2.02% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 6
Gap Up % 33.3%
Avg Gap +0.05%
Best Gap +0.73%

🏭 Sector Comparison: FIRE, MARINE & CASUALTY INSURANCE

How SKWD compares to 22 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SKWD: +0.42% Sector: +0.01% +0.42%
EOD Gain
SKWD: +0.60% Sector: +58.36% -57.76%
Avg MFE
SKWD: +1.81% Sector: +2.97% -1.17%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SKWD alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-10-03 09:26:40 $41.1 +0.29% - - +1.33% +2.19% +3.09% -0.37% -0.05% WIN
2024-05-24 09:28:06 $35.76 +0.39% +0.95% +0.89% +1.02% +1.68% +1.76% -0.20% +0.11% WIN
2024-05-07 09:27:27 $37.5 +0.72% +1.04% +0.59% +0.67% +0.29% +2.21% -0.35% -0.07% WIN
2023-12-04 09:28:00 $32.73 - +1.44% +1.68% +1.65% -0.09% +2.41% - +0.73% -
2023-11-16 09:25:00 $31.11 -0.03% -1.12% -1.14% - -0.93% +0.55% -0.35% -0.03% LOSS
2023-06-08 09:25:00 $24.0 +1.04% -0.62% -1.00% +0.92% +2.04% +2.10% -1.42% -0.42% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 83.3% Baseline on SKWD

The 83.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SKWD's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SKWD Strategy →

Why Analyze SKWD with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SKWD. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SKWD historically offers an average upside of +2.02% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SKWD Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 83.3%, SKWD shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SKWD performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.93%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.