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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$SMCX

Trade-Ideas alerts 51.5% at 30-min n=206 2024-09-23 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 21, 2024
Total alerts
206
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 30MIN
51.5%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 30MIN
+0.74%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+7.79%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading SMCX on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.96%
Avg Loser: -2.08%
Best: +9.70%
Worst: -16.63%
Trades: 103/100

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.1%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +3.78%
Avg Loser: -3.30%
Best: +18.83%
Worst: -20.18%
Trades: 95/110

30MIN

Win Rate: 51.5%
Avg Gain: +0.74%
Avg Winner: +5.19%
Avg Loser: -4.02%
Best: +35.54%
Worst: -18.58%
Trades: 106/99

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.60%
Avg Winner: +6.00%
Avg Loser: -4.85%
Best: +26.72%
Worst: -21.11%
Trades: 103/102

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 47.6%
Avg Gain: +44.01%
Avg Winner: +99.08%
Avg Loser: -5.96%
Best: +2111.98%
Worst: -40.15%
Trades: 98/108

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.79%
Best MFE: +35.54%
Avg Time to MFE: 121 min

On average, SMCX alerts reach +7.79% profit potential within 121 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.95%
Worst MAE: -24.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 12 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.95%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.64:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.64x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 206 alerts, SMCX typically reaches +7.79% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 206
Gap Up % 43.2%
Avg Gap -0.10%
Best Gap +4.14%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SMCX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $14.81 -1.28% +0.00% +3.85% +7.29% +4.19% +8.41% -2.16% +0.20% LOSS
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $13.54 -0.26% +1.99% -0.07% -2.36% +5.24% +5.76% -3.40% +0.59% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $14.45 +0.21% -4.50% -5.88% -6.09% -5.19% +2.32% -1.31% +0.07% WIN
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $14.77 -0.10% -1.46% -1.05% -2.27% -7.21% +0.37% -1.21% +0.10% LOSS
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $14.8 +1.89% -0.47% -1.25% -3.78% -3.92% +2.09% -0.07% +0.34% WIN
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $14.42 +0.63% +3.47% +6.03% +4.79% +5.83% +8.18% -0.28% -0.07% WIN
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $13.35 +1.13% +3.37% +1.35% -0.07% +5.54% +9.55% -2.62% -0.37% WIN
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $14.75 -1.15% -4.47% -2.58% -3.97% -4.54% +1.25% -7.49% -0.41% LOSS
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $13.78 +1.09% +1.02% +0.15% -1.23% +2.61% +3.70% -2.54% +1.31% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $13.62 -1.65% -0.88% +2.13% +3.30% +2.35% +4.85% -3.30% -0.44% LOSS
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $13.26 -2.26% -4.34% -4.60% -7.40% -4.98% +1.36% -2.87% +1.06% LOSS
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $12.03 +0.58% +3.74% +6.32% +7.24% +11.89% +15.21% -1.08% +0.17% WIN
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $10.67 +0.75% +4.59% +6.09% +4.50% +6.19% +7.40% -0.52% +0.09% WIN
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $11.29 +1.42% +2.57% +2.83% -0.18% -5.93% +4.07% -0.35% +0.09% WIN
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $11.8 -2.29% -1.70% -0.08% -0.34% -4.15% +3.47% -6.27% -0.38% LOSS
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $12.23 -0.53% -0.90% +1.64% +10.47% +10.96% +12.84% -2.29% -0.98% LOSS
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $12.06 +1.16% +5.89% +6.55% +7.13% -1.58% +8.71% -0.58% +1.33% WIN
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $13.33 +1.28% +0.11% +2.07% +2.33% -3.08% +3.30% -1.20% +2.18% WIN
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $13.53 +2.00% +5.54% +5.54% +6.28% +2.22% +8.72% -0.67% -0.44% WIN
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $12.59 -1.87% +2.30% +3.26% +5.96% +6.43% +13.19% -2.07% -0.48% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 51.5% Baseline on SMCX

The 51.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push SMCX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SMCX Strategy →

Why Analyze SMCX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMCX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMCX historically offers an average upside of +7.79% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SMCX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 51.5%, SMCX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SMCX performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.74%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.