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Latest signal:

SMCX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 53 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-09-23 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (53 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 22, 2024
📊
53
Total Alerts
🎯
56.6%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
+1.68%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+11.67%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.3%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +2.92%
Avg Loser: -4.08%
Best: +9.70%
Worst: -16.63%
Trades: 24/28

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.2%
Avg Gain: -0.49%
Avg Winner: +5.47%
Avg Loser: -5.81%
Best: +18.83%
Worst: -20.18%
Trades: 25/28

30MIN

Win Rate: 56.6%
Avg Gain: +1.68%
Avg Winner: +8.29%
Avg Loser: -6.94%
Best: +35.54%
Worst: -18.58%
Trades: 30/23

60MIN

Win Rate: 54.7%
Avg Gain: +1.58%
Avg Winner: +8.55%
Avg Loser: -6.84%
Best: +26.72%
Worst: -21.11%
Trades: 29/24

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 54.7%
Avg Gain: +170.12%
Avg Winner: +317.29%
Avg Loser: -7.71%
Best: +2111.98%
Worst: -18.91%
Trades: 29/24

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +11.67%
Best MFE: +35.54%
Avg Time to MFE: 114 min

On average, SMCX alerts reach +11.67% profit potential within 114 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -5.56%
Worst MAE: -24.15%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 5.56%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.1:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.1x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 53 alerts, SMCX typically reaches +11.67% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 9.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 53
Gap Up % 30.2%
Avg Gap -0.72%
Best Gap +3.17%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SMCX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:37 $66.39 +6.76% +10.69% +15.35% +18.66% +23.05% +24.10% +0.21% +0.27% WIN
2025-02-13 09:28:03 $55.3 +1.66% -1.61% -2.28% +4.45% +16.53% +22.04% -7.78% -0.05% WIN
2025-02-12 09:25:58 $65.18 -0.28% -7.15% -3.34% -7.95% -12.52% +4.33% -11.70% -1.09% LOSS
2025-02-11 09:28:07 $61.07 +0.33% +2.87% +8.20% +2.96% -10.12% +8.81% -4.18% -0.74% WIN
2025-02-10 09:29:34 $54.99 -0.03% -0.18% +1.18% +3.38% +22.75% +23.70% -3.62% -0.45% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:10 $46.19 +2.68% +6.35% +6.93% +4.68% +8.27% +11.92% -2.58% -0.93% WIN
2025-02-06 09:25:01 $39.5 -0.38% +2.63% +7.57% +11.29% +10.51% +14.55% -1.27% -0.51% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:04 $38.27 -4.20% -8.54% -7.87% +5.04% -0.34% +9.03% -10.43% -3.32% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:26:54 $30.42 +2.14% +1.91% +4.40% +2.53% +8.22% +10.04% -3.91% -0.95% WIN
2025-02-03 09:29:39 $28.72 -3.80% -6.34% -6.75% -3.38% -2.30% +3.68% -11.10% +0.03% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:25:35 $36.24 +5.06% +0.72% +7.70% +11.42% -7.97% +12.96% -3.42% +0.19% WIN
2025-01-22 09:27:07 $46.89 -0.26% -5.52% +1.64% -0.19% -1.51% +4.87% -7.66% -0.83% LOSS
2025-01-16 09:28:22 $41.65 +1.10% -2.88% -3.96% -3.58% -5.40% +4.90% -1.27% -0.14% WIN
2025-01-06 09:26:31 $51.29 +4.11% +17.27% +12.91% +11.15% +7.43% +18.27% -1.09% -0.55% WIN
2024-12-26 09:25:20 $52.78 -1.76% +0.80% -4.72% -3.77% -8.15% +1.17% -4.27% -0.55% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:28:52 $41.34 -0.12% +3.10% +2.01% +7.68% +2.52% +15.63% -3.24% -0.85% LOSS
2024-12-17 09:27:21 $49.67 +0.07% +2.72% +2.13% +4.09% -0.87% +8.62% -2.80% -1.35% WIN
2024-12-16 09:28:30 $41.84 +9.23% +18.83% +20.84% +26.72% +15.56% +30.26% -0.60% +0.38% WIN
2024-12-12 09:25:00 $63.6 +1.66% +3.29% +5.22% +2.14% -1.12% +8.73% -2.44% -2.20% WIN
2024-12-11 09:25:48 $64.65 -8.46% -10.16% -4.69% -4.47% -0.71% +2.26% -12.73% -1.01% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 56.6% Baseline on SMCX

The 56.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SMCX's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SMCX Strategy →

Why Analyze SMCX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMCX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMCX historically offers an average upside of +11.67% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SMCX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 56.6%, SMCX shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SMCX performs best on the 30MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +1.68%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.