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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$SMST

Trade-Ideas alerts 62.5% at EOD n=136 2024-10-14 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

Tidal Trust II Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 20, 2024
Total alerts
136
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · EOD
62.5%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · EOD
+540.04%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+8.05%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading SMST on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 51.5%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +1.96%
Avg Loser: -2.00%
Best: +10.29%
Worst: -8.25%
Trades: 70/63

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: +0.11%
Avg Winner: +3.24%
Avg Loser: -2.93%
Best: +17.60%
Worst: -13.58%
Trades: 66/68

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.4%
Avg Gain: -0.16%
Avg Winner: +4.49%
Avg Loser: -3.88%
Best: +23.53%
Worst: -14.56%
Trades: 59/74

60MIN

Win Rate: 45.6%
Avg Gain: +0.16%
Avg Winner: +5.79%
Avg Loser: -4.69%
Best: +41.15%
Worst: -21.69%
Trades: 62/72

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +540.04%
Avg Winner: +869.13%
Avg Loser: -8.78%
Best: +9866.44%
Worst: -43.53%
Trades: 85/49

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +8.05%
Best MFE: +96.45%
Avg Time to MFE: 151 min

On average, SMST alerts reach +8.05% profit potential within 151 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.49%
Worst MAE: -14.90%
Avg Time to MAE: 19 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.49%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.23:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.23x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 136 alerts, SMST typically reaches +8.05% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.4% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 136
Gap Up % 43.4%
Avg Gap +0.04%
Best Gap +3.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SMST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $11.33 -2.03% -4.94% -1.85% +1.50% +7.33% +13.15% -5.56% -0.09% LOSS
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $13.37 -0.07% -3.81% -5.01% -3.96% -9.10% +1.05% -0.52% -0.07% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $12.19 -1.97% +7.38% +6.15% +8.94% +10.25% +11.73% -4.02% -0.25% LOSS
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $12.17 +1.07% +3.90% +4.03% +7.23% +8.50% +11.42% -0.90% -0.66% WIN
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $12.73 -1.65% -1.65% -2.20% -0.08% +0.31% +3.06% -2.57% -0.08% LOSS
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $11.96 +1.84% +3.09% +3.30% +5.10% +5.18% +7.27% -0.08% +0.67% WIN
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $12.25 -1.87% -1.95% -0.40% -3.42% -1.05% +2.98% -5.05% -0.81% LOSS
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $11.35 +0.31% -2.38% +0.79% +4.05% +5.73% +6.48% -2.47% +0.53% WIN
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $11.39 -0.88% -1.49% -3.34% -3.51% -0.18% +0.26% -0.09% -0.09% LOSS
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $11.93 -2.77% -3.27% -4.19% -1.84% -6.04% +0.00% -1.93% -0.25% LOSS
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $19.45 -2.31% -8.08% -12.65% -16.35% -28.84% +0.15% +0.10% -0.15% LOSS
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $21.25 -1.03% +2.92% +0.94% -3.48% -3.44% +4.49% -1.41% +0.99% LOSS
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $21.48 +0.98% +1.96% +2.14% +5.87% +6.33% +10.52% -0.60% +1.02% WIN
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $20.99 +1.14% +1.10% +2.05% +2.29% +3.05% +9.10% -2.10% +0.62% WIN
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $21.72 -2.51% -2.90% -5.16% -6.35% -9.94% -0.37% -0.37% -0.92% LOSS
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $21.43 +0.58% +0.47% -5.27% -7.00% +0.56% +3.27% -0.61% +1.26% WIN
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $22.44 +0.36% -1.16% -2.41% -3.48% -0.40% +2.23% -0.45% +0.22% WIN
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $18.5 +1.88% +4.49% +7.68% +9.30% +13.95% +14.38% -0.22% -0.22% WIN
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $19.43 +0.51% +3.96% +1.39% -0.58% +2.83% +4.48% -0.10% +1.42% WIN
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $19.73 -2.99% -3.95% -3.64% -3.19% -6.48% +1.22% +0.16% -0.14% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 62.5% Baseline on SMST

The 62.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push SMST's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SMST Strategy →

Why Analyze SMST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMST historically offers an average upside of +8.05% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SMST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.5%, SMST shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SMST performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +540.04%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.