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Latest signal:

SMST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 69 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2024-10-14 → 2025-02-14

⚠️ Small sample size (69 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Tidal Trust II Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 21, 2024
📊
69
Total Alerts
🎯
69.6%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+1064.74%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+10.28%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.7%
Avg Gain: +0.27%
Avg Winner: +2.46%
Avg Loser: -2.18%
Best: +10.29%
Worst: -7.38%
Trades: 35/31

15MIN

Win Rate: 47.8%
Avg Gain: +0.30%
Avg Winner: +3.42%
Avg Loser: -2.70%
Best: +17.60%
Worst: -8.59%
Trades: 33/34

30MIN

Win Rate: 40.6%
Avg Gain: +0.16%
Avg Winner: +5.61%
Avg Loser: -3.85%
Best: +23.53%
Worst: -10.83%
Trades: 28/38

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.7%
Avg Gain: +0.84%
Avg Winner: +6.17%
Avg Loser: -4.93%
Best: +41.15%
Worst: -17.25%
Trades: 35/32

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 69.6%
Avg Gain: +1064.74%
Avg Winner: +1534.70%
Avg Loser: -10.45%
Best: +9866.44%
Worst: -39.62%
Trades: 48/19

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +10.28%
Best MFE: +96.45%
Avg Time to MFE: 163 min

On average, SMST alerts reach +10.28% profit potential within 163 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -2.87%
Worst MAE: -10.73%
Avg Time to MAE: 23 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 2.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.59:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.59x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 69 alerts, SMST typically reaches +10.28% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 8.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 69
Gap Up % 30.4%
Avg Gap -0.11%
Best Gap +2.27%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SMST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:25:14 $5.22 +0.96% -1.05% -1.92% +0.10% -7.47% +0.96% - +0.38% WIN
2025-02-13 09:28:22 $5.21 +1.34% +1.92% +1.15% -0.38% +1919.19% +5.37% -2.59% -0.19% WIN
2025-02-12 09:28:21 $5.57 - -2.33% -3.56% -2.15% +1763.55% +1.42% +0.18% +0.72% -
2025-02-11 09:29:32 $5.06 +1.48% -1.38% -2.27% - +2050.20% +8.10% -3.56% - WIN
2025-02-10 09:27:47 $4.99 -2.83% -0.80% +0.39% +0.60% - +4.21% -3.52% +0.80% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:26:07 $4.99 -4.06% -4.41% -2.20% +0.30% +4.61% +5.01% -6.21% -0.20% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:25:26 $4.92 +2.03% - +1.93% +2.62% +7.52% +10.57% -3.48% -0.20% WIN
2025-02-05 09:28:28 $4.63 +0.86% +1.94% +3.46% +2.16% +7.34% +9.09% -1.71% +0.22% WIN
2025-02-04 09:25:11 $4.85 -0.82% -4.64% -4.95% -3.30% +1821.65% +0.60% -0.82% - LOSS
2025-02-03 09:27:27 $5.86 -3.41% -6.66% -5.32% -9.98% +1504.10% -0.17% -2.90% -0.51% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:29:51 $4.93 +1.83% +1.62% +0.20% -2.03% +1964.91% +4.56% -7.51% - WIN
2025-01-30 09:28:51 $4.77 -3.35% -1.78% -3.98% -0.31% +3.14% +4.30% -6.28% -0.21% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:29:06 $5.01 -0.10% - +0.60% +0.80% -2.40% +4.99% -2.20% -0.60% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:28:37 $4.84 +1.03% +2.89% -0.41% -0.20% +1986.78% +6.18% -2.69% -0.21% WIN
2025-01-27 09:26:16 $4.94 -3.04% +0.38% -5.97% -3.85% +1819.03% +9.31% -8.70% -0.20% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:25:04 $4.05 +1.97% +1.23% +3.67% +3.46% +13.09% +14.81% -0.25% - WIN
2025-01-23 09:27:21 $4.21 -5.50% -6.65% -6.91% -5.87% +1876.25% +0.19% -2.38% -0.24% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:25:52 $3.93 -1.91% -0.25% -0.25% +1.78% +1971.25% +6.87% -2.93% - LOSS
2025-01-21 09:28:12 $3.75 +3.47% +7.47% +7.74% +10.10% +1953.33% +12.80% -0.80% -0.27% WIN
2025-01-17 09:27:57 $4.03 -2.11% -1.27% -2.73% -2.23% -7.94% +1.86% -0.50% -0.25% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 69.6% Baseline on SMST

The 69.6% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SMST's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SMST Strategy →

Why Analyze SMST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SMST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SMST historically offers an average upside of +10.28% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SMST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 69.6%, SMST shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SMST performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +1064.74%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.