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SNDL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 345 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-05

🏢 Company Profile

Sundial Growers Inc. Common Shares
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 01, 2019 🔗 www.sndl.com
💰 Market Cap: $409.4M 👥 Employees: 2,604
SNDL Inc is a private-sector liquor and cannabis retailer in Canada with retail banners that include Ace Liquor, Wine and Beyond, Liquor Depot, Value Buds, and Spiritleaf. The principal activities of the company are the retailing of wines, beers, and spirits. It comprised four reportable segments: liquor retail, cannabis retail, cannabis operations, and investments. Liquor retail includes the sale of wines, beers, and spirits through owned liquor stores. The company generates maximum revenue from liquor retail.
📊
345
Total Alerts
🎯
53.8%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+178.79%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+3.62%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 35.8%
Avg Gain: -0.33%
Avg Winner: +0.86%
Avg Loser: -1.06%
Best: +7.76%
Worst: -10.74%
Trades: 123/207

15MIN

Win Rate: 42.7%
Avg Gain: -0.23%
Avg Winner: +1.86%
Avg Loser: -1.85%
Best: +7.81%
Worst: -15.00%
Trades: 147/192

30MIN

Win Rate: 43.0%
Avg Gain: -0.20%
Avg Winner: +2.24%
Avg Loser: -2.09%
Best: +8.21%
Worst: -13.89%
Trades: 148/192

60MIN

Win Rate: 42.7%
Avg Gain: -0.25%
Avg Winner: +2.86%
Avg Loser: -2.68%
Best: +12.97%
Worst: -11.85%
Trades: 147/189

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 53.8%
Avg Gain: +178.79%
Avg Winner: +335.31%
Avg Loser: -3.52%
Best: +1103.23%
Worst: -19.85%
Trades: 185/150

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +3.62%
Best MFE: +24.16%
Avg Time to MFE: 106 min

On average, SNDL alerts reach +3.62% profit potential within 106 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.67%
Worst MAE: -11.50%
Avg Time to MAE: 13 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.67%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.17:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.17x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 345 alerts, SNDL typically reaches +3.62% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 345
Gap Up % 24.1%
Avg Gap -0.29%
Best Gap +2.29%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SNDL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-05 09:29:31 $1.77 +1.70% +4.16% +8.18% +8.76% +5.08% +10.17% -1.09% -0.56% WIN
2025-02-03 09:29:48 $1.68 +2.08% +1.49% +0.89% +2.25% -1.19% +2.38% -1.79% -1.79% WIN
2024-12-23 09:26:58 $1.82 +0.82% +0.55% +2.03% +1.24% +1.65% +3.85% -1.10% - WIN
2024-12-16 09:25:18 $1.76 -0.72% -0.66% -0.20% - -4.55% +1.14% -1.14% -0.57% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:27:31 $2.11 -0.47% -5.22% -3.55% -4.03% -2.37% +3.32% -1.90% - LOSS
2024-11-05 09:26:23 $2.17 -0.14% +4.18% +6.68% +3.00% +10.14% +10.60% -0.46% -0.46% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:27:16 $2.11 -0.71% -0.95% - +1.18% - +1.42% -1.42% -1.42% LOSS
2024-08-05 09:28:33 $1.88 +0.23% +3.19% +5.32% +5.89% +10.64% +12.23% -2.13% -1.60% WIN
2024-06-25 09:29:16 $1.9 -1.58% -1.61% -1.84% -1.37% -3.16% -1.05% -1.84% -1.05% LOSS
2024-05-17 09:29:10 $2.7 -1.48% -0.93% -0.38% +0.79% -8.89% +1.48% -2.59% -0.37% LOSS
2024-05-15 09:26:44 $2.68 -0.52% -2.80% -5.97% -7.65% -4.10% - -1.12% - LOSS
2024-05-14 09:29:56 $2.58 +7.76% +7.81% +2.72% +5.16% +1.55% +13.57% -1.16% -0.39% WIN
2024-04-04 09:26:34 $2.7 -10.74% -15.00% -13.89% -11.85% -15.93% - -1.11% -1.11% LOSS
2024-02-01 00:00:00 $1.36 - - - - +2.21% +3.68% -2.94% -0.74% -
2023-12-29 09:26:00 $1.65 +0.64% +1.82% +0.61% +0.91% -0.61% +3.64% - - WIN
2023-12-28 09:25:00 $1.56 -0.64% +0.64% +0.64% +6.30% +5.13% +8.33% -1.92% -0.64% LOSS
2023-12-27 09:25:00 $1.57 -0.64% +1.27% +1.29% +1.27% -1.27% +3.18% -0.64% - LOSS
2023-12-26 09:29:00 $1.55 +0.65% -1.29% -0.65% -1.28% +1.29% +3.23% -1.94% -0.65% WIN
2023-12-21 09:28:00 $1.45 -0.70% -1.21% -0.34% +0.34% +0.69% +1.38% -2.07% -2.07% LOSS
2023-12-20 09:29:00 $1.43 +1.05% +0.70% +1.75% +3.85% -0.70% +4.90% -0.70% - WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 53.8% Baseline on SNDL

The 53.8% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SNDL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SNDL Strategy →

Why Analyze SNDL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SNDL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SNDL historically offers an average upside of +3.62% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SNDL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.8%, SNDL shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SNDL performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +178.79%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.