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STGW Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2023-03-10 → 2023-06-09

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Stagwell Inc. Class A Common Stock SERVICES-ADVERTISING AGENCIES (SIC 7311)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Aug 03, 2021 🔗 www.stagwellglobal.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.67B 👥 Employees: 14,607
Stagwell Inc is the challenger holding company built to transform marketing. It delivers scaled creative performance for the world's ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with a technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. The company's segments include Integrated Agencies Network; Brand Performance Network; and Communications Network. It generates maximum revenue from the Integrated Agencies Network segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.84%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.86%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.84%
Avg Winner: +0.29%
Avg Loser: -1.97%
Best: +0.32%
Worst: -3.79%
Trades: 2/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.35%
Avg Winner: +0.78%
Avg Loser: -3.39%
Best: +0.78%
Worst: -5.91%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -2.89%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -4.05%
Best: +0.58%
Worst: -6.03%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.81%
Avg Winner: +1.58%
Avg Loser: -5.20%
Best: +2.26%
Worst: -7.95%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.83%
Avg Winner: +0.84%
Avg Loser: -2.50%
Best: +1.55%
Worst: -4.55%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.86%
Best MFE: +2.97%
Avg Time to MFE: 34 min

On average, STGW alerts reach +0.86% profit potential within 34 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -3.13%
Worst MAE: -7.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 3.13%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.28:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, STGW typically reaches +0.86% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.7% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.74%
Best Gap +0.13%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-ADVERTISING AGENCIES

How STGW compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
STGW: -0.84% Sector: -0.82% -0.02%
EOD Gain
STGW: -0.83% Sector: -0.80% -0.03%
Avg MFE
STGW: +0.86% Sector: +5.44% -4.58%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical STGW alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-06-09 09:26:00 $7.74 +0.32% +0.78% +0.58% +2.26% +1.55% +2.97% -0.13% - WIN
2023-06-08 09:29:00 $7.75 +0.26% -1.94% -1.42% -2.45% +0.13% +1.16% -0.06% +0.13% WIN
2023-03-13 09:29:00 $6.6 -3.79% -5.91% -4.70% -7.95% -4.55% -2.12% -4.70% -2.65% LOSS
2023-03-10 09:27:00 $6.63 -0.15% -2.34% -6.03% +0.91% -0.45% +1.43% -7.62% -0.45% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ STGW Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.84% average gain, STGW alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider STGW for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze STGW with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for STGW. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, STGW historically offers an average upside of +0.86% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 STGW Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, STGW shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests STGW may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: STGW shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.84%). This suggests STGW is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.