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SWBI Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 5 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-04 → 2024-12-06

⚠️ Small sample size (5 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. Common Stock ORDNANCE & ACCESSORIES, (NO VEHICLES/GUIDED MISSILES) (SIC 3480)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Nov 09, 1998 🔗 www.smith-wesson.com
💰 Market Cap: $469.9M 👥 Employees: 1,416
Smith & Wesson Brands Inc is a U.S.-based leader in firearm manufacturing. It operates under one reportable segment: Firearms, which includes firearms distribution and manufacturing services. The company manufactures handguns, long guns, sporting rifles, shooting gear, and suppressor products. The firm's brand portfolio consists of Smith and Wesson, M&P, Thompson/Center Arms, Performance Center, and Gemtech; which are used for defense, law enforcement, hunting, and sporting purposes. The company operates internationally, with the majority of income generated by the U.S. market from its handgun products.
📊
5
Total Alerts
🎯
60.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.69%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+7.76%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +0.69%
Avg Winner: +3.51%
Avg Loser: -3.55%
Best: +5.18%
Worst: -6.58%
Trades: 3/2

15MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: -0.54%
Avg Winner: +4.25%
Avg Loser: -3.74%
Best: +6.39%
Worst: -6.14%
Trades: 2/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 20.0%
Avg Gain: -1.12%
Avg Winner: +9.87%
Avg Loser: -3.87%
Best: +9.87%
Worst: -4.74%
Trades: 1/4

60MIN

Win Rate: 40.0%
Avg Gain: +0.85%
Avg Winner: +6.63%
Avg Loser: -2.99%
Best: +11.72%
Worst: -4.56%
Trades: 2/3

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 60.0%
Avg Gain: +2.93%
Avg Winner: +8.17%
Avg Loser: -4.93%
Best: +13.53%
Worst: -5.13%
Trades: 3/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +7.76%
Best MFE: +14.54%
Avg Time to MFE: 127 min

On average, SWBI alerts reach +7.76% profit potential within 127 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.06%
Worst MAE: -3.62%
Avg Time to MAE: 6 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.06%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

7.29:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 7.29x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 5 alerts, SWBI typically reaches +7.76% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 6.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 5
Gap Up % 40.0%
Avg Gap +0.29%
Best Gap +2.23%

🏭 Sector Comparison: ORDNANCE & ACCESSORIES, (NO VEHICLES/GUIDED MISSILES)

How SWBI compares to 4 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SWBI: +0.69% Sector: -0.51% +1.19%
EOD Gain
SWBI: +2.93% Sector: +1.16% +1.77%
Avg MFE
SWBI: +7.76% Sector: +4.40% +3.36%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SWBI alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-12-06 09:28:23 $11.4 -6.58% -6.14% -4.74% -4.04% -4.74% +1.58% +1.58% -0.09% LOSS
2024-11-06 09:25:18 $13.0 +5.18% -2.42% -4.69% -0.38% +2.08% +5.18% -0.08% +2.23% WIN
2023-09-08 09:28:00 $12.28 +3.26% +2.12% -2.84% -4.56% -5.13% +7.33% -2.36% -0.81% WIN
2023-06-23 09:25:00 $11.9 +2.10% +6.39% +9.87% +11.72% +13.53% +14.54% -0.84% +0.84% WIN
2022-03-04 09:25:00 $14.37 -0.52% -2.64% -3.20% +1.53% +8.91% +10.16% -3.62% -0.72% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 60.0% Baseline on SWBI

The 60.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push SWBI's performance to 75%+.

Optimize SWBI Strategy →

Why Analyze SWBI with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SWBI. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SWBI historically offers an average upside of +7.76% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SWBI Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 60.0%, SWBI shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show SWBI performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.69%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.