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SWX Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-03-29 → 2023-03-08

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION (SIC 4923)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jun 01, 1972 🔗 www.swgasholdings.com
💰 Market Cap: $5.99B 👥 Employees: 2,435
Southwest Gas Holdings Inc is a utility company engaged in the purchasing, distributing, and transporting of natural gas in the American Southwest. The company segments its activities into natural gas distribution and Utility Infrastructure Services units. The first of these encompasses the company's core natural gas business as distributors in the states of Arizona and Nevada. The natural gas distribution division is responsible for roughly half of Southwest Gas' total revenue through the sale of natural gas to mainly residential and small commercial customers. The Utility Infrastructure Services segment generates the other half of the company's total revenue from the underground piping contractor services that its subsidiary, Centuri Construction Group, provides.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.02%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.04%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.46%
Avg Loser: -0.50%
Best: +0.46%
Worst: -0.50%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.34%
Avg Winner: +1.30%
Avg Loser: -1.98%
Best: +1.30%
Worst: -1.98%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.46%
Avg Winner: +0.06%
Avg Loser: -0.98%
Best: +0.06%
Worst: -0.98%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.09%
Avg Winner: +0.43%
Avg Loser: -0.61%
Best: +0.43%
Worst: -0.61%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.21%
Avg Winner: +1.56%
Avg Loser: -1.13%
Best: +1.56%
Worst: -1.13%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.04%
Best MFE: +1.71%
Avg Time to MFE: 384 min

On average, SWX alerts reach +1.04% profit potential within 384 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.42%
Worst MAE: -2.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 17 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.42%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

0.73:1

Challenging risk/reward - consider tighter stops.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, SWX typically reaches +1.04% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 100.0%
Avg Gap +0.17%
Best Gap +0.24%

🏭 Sector Comparison: NATURAL GAS TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION

How SWX compares to 5 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
SWX: -0.02% Sector: -0.44% +0.41%
EOD Gain
SWX: +0.21% Sector: +1.38% -1.16%
Avg MFE
SWX: +1.04% Sector: +4.78% -3.75%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical SWX alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2023-03-08 09:27:00 $61.5 +0.46% +1.30% +0.06% +0.43% +1.56% +1.71% -0.57% +0.24% WIN
2022-03-29 09:25:00 $79.4 -0.50% -1.98% -0.98% -0.61% -1.13% +0.37% -2.27% +0.10% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

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⚠️ SWX Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.02% average gain, SWX alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider SWX for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze SWX with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for SWX. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, SWX historically offers an average upside of +1.04% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 SWX Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, SWX shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests SWX may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: SWX shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.02%). This suggests SWX is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.