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TAK Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 63 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-11 → 2025-01-29

⚠️ Small sample size (63 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing 1/2 of a share of Common Stock)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Mar 07, 2008 🔗 www.takeda.com
💰 Market Cap: $52.47B 👥 Employees: 47,455
Takeda Pharmaceutical is Japan's largest pharmaceutical company, with revenue of JPY 4.6 trillion in fiscal 2024. The company's five core therapeutic areas are oncology, gastroenterology, neuroscience, rare diseases, and plasma-derived therapies, which account for more than 80% of revenue. Its geographic footprint is well diversified, with over 50% derived from the US, 20% from Japan, 20% from Europe and Canada.
📊
63
Total Alerts
🎯
65.1%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.17%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+0.70%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 65.1%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.43%
Avg Loser: -0.33%
Best: +1.58%
Worst: -0.67%
Trades: 41/20

15MIN

Win Rate: 65.1%
Avg Gain: +0.20%
Avg Winner: +0.48%
Avg Loser: -0.36%
Best: +3.01%
Worst: -1.48%
Trades: 41/20

30MIN

Win Rate: 60.3%
Avg Gain: +0.17%
Avg Winner: +0.54%
Avg Loser: -0.41%
Best: +2.05%
Worst: -1.89%
Trades: 38/24

60MIN

Win Rate: 65.1%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -0.49%
Best: +2.60%
Worst: -2.06%
Trades: 41/19

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 54.0%
Avg Gain: +0.15%
Avg Winner: +0.67%
Avg Loser: -0.52%
Best: +4.07%
Worst: -2.20%
Trades: 34/25

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +0.70%
Best MFE: +4.44%
Avg Time to MFE: 95 min

On average, TAK alerts reach +0.70% profit potential within 95 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.30%
Worst MAE: -2.27%
Avg Time to MAE: 4 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.30%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.37:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.37x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 63 alerts, TAK typically reaches +0.70% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 63
Gap Up % 44.4%
Avg Gap -0.01%
Best Gap +1.36%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TAK alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-29 09:29:25 $13.31 +0.53% +0.49% +0.64% +0.75% - +0.86% +0.08% +0.23% WIN
2025-01-16 09:29:13 $13.0 -0.19% -0.19% -0.50% -0.31% +0.38% +0.62% -0.54% +0.15% LOSS
2025-01-08 09:28:15 $13.24 -0.64% -0.34% -0.42% - - +0.23% -0.79% -0.23% LOSS
2024-12-16 09:25:57 $13.44 -0.67% -0.52% -0.48% -0.56% -1.19% -0.30% -1.04% -0.74% LOSS
2024-12-04 09:29:07 $13.68 +0.44% +0.18% +0.04% +0.33% -0.07% +0.73% +0.22% +0.22% WIN
2024-11-21 09:27:50 $13.28 +0.30% +0.53% +0.34% +0.23% +0.38% +0.53% - - WIN
2024-10-16 09:27:25 $14.02 +0.04% - -0.11% +0.25% +0.43% +0.50% -1.06% -0.21% WIN
2024-10-11 09:27:38 $14.27 -0.49% -0.46% -0.56% -0.07% +0.21% +0.28% -1.54% -1.05% LOSS
2024-09-03 09:28:30 $14.89 +0.40% +0.44% +0.71% +0.34% +0.20% +0.74% -0.34% -0.34% WIN
2024-08-05 09:26:24 $13.28 +1.58% +3.01% +2.05% +2.60% +4.07% +4.44% +0.15% +1.13% WIN
2024-08-01 09:28:51 $13.51 +1.26% +1.44% +1.50% +1.41% +2.52% +2.52% +0.07% +0.67% WIN
2024-07-31 09:26:36 $13.66 -0.51% -0.22% +0.73% +0.95% +1.61% +1.98% -2.27% -0.66% LOSS
2024-07-30 09:26:26 $13.69 -0.26% -0.18% -0.18% -0.77% -0.29% +0.15% -0.80% -0.15% LOSS
2024-06-10 09:25:24 $13.25 +1.51% +1.21% +1.51% +1.70% +1.96% +2.30% +1.06% +1.36% WIN
2024-05-07 09:29:20 $13.25 +0.21% +0.23% +0.15% +0.04% +0.23% +0.30% +0.08% +0.15% WIN
2024-03-26 09:26:04 $14.43 -0.21% -0.28% -0.35% -0.10% -0.28% +0.14% -0.35% -0.14% LOSS
2023-12-05 09:29:00 $14.0 +0.05% - -0.07% +0.11% -0.21% +0.21% - - WIN
2023-12-04 09:27:00 $14.02 +0.43% +0.22% +0.46% +0.36% +0.57% +0.78% -0.43% -0.07% WIN
2023-10-27 09:28:00 $13.47 +0.45% +0.22% +0.45% +0.41% - +0.67% -0.30% -0.07% WIN
2023-10-10 09:28:00 $15.31 +0.39% +0.39% +0.39% +0.56% +0.78% +1.05% - +0.26% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 65.1% Baseline on TAK

The 65.1% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TAK's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TAK Strategy →

Why Analyze TAK with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TAK. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TAK historically offers an average upside of +0.70% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TAK Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 65.1%, TAK shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TAK performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.17%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.