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TAL Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 257 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-05 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

TAL Education Group
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Oct 20, 2010 🔗 www.100tal.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.56B 👥 Employees: 23,000
TAL Education Group is a smart learning solutions provider in China. It operates a few business lines including enrichment learning, high school academic tutoring, learning technology, and content solutions. Among those business lines, TAL focuses on enrichment learning and content solutions.
📊
257
Total Alerts
🎯
53.1%
Win Rate (60MIN)
💰
+0.53%
Avg Gain (60MIN)
🚀
+4.84%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 49.6%
Avg Gain: +0.05%
Avg Winner: +1.68%
Avg Loser: -1.67%
Best: +20.72%
Worst: -8.54%
Trades: 127/120

15MIN

Win Rate: 52.3%
Avg Gain: +0.26%
Avg Winner: +2.84%
Avg Loser: -2.61%
Best: +12.26%
Worst: -12.04%
Trades: 134/120

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.8%
Avg Gain: +0.33%
Avg Winner: +3.54%
Avg Loser: -2.81%
Best: +14.85%
Worst: -15.64%
Trades: 125/127

60MIN

Win Rate: 53.1%
Avg Gain: +0.53%
Avg Winner: +3.93%
Avg Loser: -3.38%
Best: +18.94%
Worst: -15.71%
Trades: 136/118

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: +0.59%
Avg Winner: +5.06%
Avg Loser: -3.96%
Best: +21.99%
Worst: -20.24%
Trades: 127/124

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +4.84%
Best MFE: +24.09%
Avg Time to MFE: 88 min

On average, TAL alerts reach +4.84% profit potential within 88 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.50%
Worst MAE: -11.52%
Avg Time to MAE: 8 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.50%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

3.23:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 3.23x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 257 alerts, TAL typically reaches +4.84% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 3.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 257
Gap Up % 42.4%
Avg Gap -0.08%
Best Gap +3.44%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TAL alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:26:25 $15.06 +0.33% -0.80% +0.76% -1.66% -3.72% +1.13% -1.00% -0.40% WIN
2025-02-10 09:27:55 $13.8 -1.16% +0.33% -0.58% +0.11% -1.30% +1.23% -0.58% -0.51% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:25:08 $11.49 +1.83% +4.22% +5.05% +4.35% +4.70% +6.01% - +0.96% WIN
2025-01-24 09:26:03 $11.09 +2.34% -0.18% -0.41% +0.45% +5.41% +6.58% -0.77% +0.09% WIN
2025-01-23 09:25:18 $10.53 -0.24% -0.24% -1.99% +1.61% +5.13% +5.32% -2.75% +2.09% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:27:49 $9.33 -5.57% -5.14% -3.75% -2.30% -2.14% -0.75% -0.75% -1.39% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:28:57 $9.41 -1.38% +0.43% -0.80% -1.06% -1.59% +1.28% -2.44% -0.64% LOSS
2024-12-09 09:25:29 $11.0 +0.91% +2.45% +0.09% -1.74% -2.36% +2.64% -1.36% +0.09% WIN
2024-11-27 09:27:23 $10.32 +0.87% +1.79% +0.58% -1.11% +0.19% +2.03% +0.39% +0.39% WIN
2024-11-06 09:26:53 $11.0 +0.36% +0.68% -0.23% +3.91% +4.73% +5.09% -1.82% - WIN
2024-10-28 09:29:52 $11.36 -3.35% -2.82% -1.94% -3.62% -3.17% +0.18% -2.99% -0.44% LOSS
2024-10-24 09:29:37 $10.59 -1.23% -2.60% -3.76% -2.31% -0.85% +0.76% -1.70% +0.76% LOSS
2024-10-23 09:28:40 $10.8 +1.25% +1.62% -1.81% -2.82% -5.46% +2.22% -1.85% +0.37% WIN
2024-10-08 09:28:05 $10.38 +2.79% +4.72% +3.92% +6.02% +6.45% +7.13% +0.19% +0.96% WIN
2024-10-07 09:27:44 $11.7 -2.14% -3.03% -2.61% -5.04% -2.91% +1.37% - +0.43% LOSS
2024-10-04 09:28:26 $11.7 +1.79% +3.93% +1.28% +0.68% -1.71% +5.13% +0.43% +0.68% WIN
2024-10-03 09:27:09 $11.2 +2.14% +2.86% +4.11% +2.50% +1.70% +5.27% +0.27% +1.43% WIN
2024-10-02 09:27:50 $13.16 -3.95% -2.36% -2.43% -5.21% -10.33% +1.44% -0.30% -0.46% LOSS
2024-10-01 09:28:55 $11.98 -1.92% -4.26% -1.75% -5.26% +1.25% +1.34% -5.59% -0.58% LOSS
2024-09-30 09:29:21 $12.4 -3.79% +2.10% +4.52% +2.02% -4.52% +6.13% -4.68% -0.97% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 53.1% Baseline on TAL

The 53.1% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TAL's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TAL Strategy →

Why Analyze TAL with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TAL. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TAL historically offers an average upside of +4.84% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TAL Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 53.1%, TAL shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TAL performs best on the 60MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.53%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.