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TARS Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-03 → 2024-03-01

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (SIC 2836)
📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Oct 16, 2020 🔗 www.tarsusrx.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.90B 👥 Employees: 323
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapeutics, starting with eye care. The company is focused on the development and commercialization of first-in-class therapeutic candidates to provide treatment for ophthalmic conditions. The company's candidate XDEMVY is a novel investigational eye drop to treat blepharitis caused by the infestation of Demodex mites, referred to as Demodex blepharitis.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
25.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-1.94%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.96%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -1.94%
Avg Winner: +0.20%
Avg Loser: -2.65%
Best: +0.20%
Worst: -4.68%
Trades: 1/3

15MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -4.04%
Avg Winner: +0.93%
Avg Loser: -5.70%
Best: +0.93%
Worst: -11.19%
Trades: 1/3

30MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -3.66%
Avg Winner: +1.45%
Avg Loser: -5.37%
Best: +1.45%
Worst: -10.81%
Trades: 1/3

60MIN

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -3.13%
Avg Winner: +2.61%
Avg Loser: -7.56%
Best: +2.61%
Worst: -11.19%
Trades: 1/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 25.0%
Avg Gain: -4.00%
Avg Winner: +7.13%
Avg Loser: -7.71%
Best: +7.13%
Worst: -15.61%
Trades: 1/3

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.96%
Best MFE: +7.83%
Avg Time to MFE: 98 min

On average, TARS alerts reach +1.96% profit potential within 98 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.63%
Worst MAE: -3.23%
Avg Time to MAE: 1 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.63%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.2:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, TARS typically reaches +1.96% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.6% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 25.0%
Avg Gap -0.85%
Best Gap +0.46%

🏭 Sector Comparison: BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

How TARS compares to 128 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TARS: -1.94% Sector: -0.41% -1.52%
EOD Gain
TARS: -4.00% Sector: +1233.50% -1237.50%
Avg MFE
TARS: +1.96% Sector: +6.69% -4.73%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TARS alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-01 09:28:48 $34.49 -0.77% +0.93% +1.45% +2.61% +7.13% +7.83% -3.07% - LOSS
2023-08-02 09:28:00 $17.39 +0.20% -2.47% -1.75% - -0.75% +0.75% -0.23% +0.46% WIN
2023-07-25 09:25:00 $21.37 -4.68% -11.19% -10.81% -11.19% -15.61% -0.75% -3.23% -3.09% LOSS
2022-05-03 09:25:00 $14.0 -2.50% -3.43% -3.54% -3.93% -6.79% - - -0.79% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TARS Shows Negative Expectancy

With 25.0% win rate and -1.94% average gain, TARS alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TARS for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TARS with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TARS. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TARS historically offers an average upside of +1.96% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TARS Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 25.0%, TARS shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TARS may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TARS shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -1.94%). This suggests TARS is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.