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TMF Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 708 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Apr 16, 2009
📊
708
Total Alerts
🎯
62.5%
Win Rate (EOD)
💰
+252.34%
Avg Gain (EOD)
🚀
+1.64%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.0%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.27%
Avg Loser: -0.28%
Best: +1.66%
Worst: -2.04%
Trades: 318/343

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.5%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.47%
Avg Loser: -0.45%
Best: +2.36%
Worst: -2.68%
Trades: 328/354

30MIN

Win Rate: 47.3%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.66%
Avg Loser: -0.66%
Best: +3.20%
Worst: -3.79%
Trades: 334/360

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.5%
Avg Gain: -0.05%
Avg Winner: +0.92%
Avg Loser: -0.94%
Best: +4.31%
Worst: -4.36%
Trades: 335/363

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 62.5%
Avg Gain: +252.34%
Avg Winner: +404.53%
Avg Loser: -1.52%
Best: +955.21%
Worst: -6.58%
Trades: 442/260

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.64%
Best MFE: +9.43%
Avg Time to MFE: 146 min

On average, TMF alerts reach +1.64% profit potential within 146 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.58%
Worst MAE: -4.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 25 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.58%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.82:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.82x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 708 alerts, TMF typically reaches +1.64% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 708
Gap Up % 42.7%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +1.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TMF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:04 $42.37 -0.17% -0.29% -0.17% +0.33% -0.66% +1.01% -0.42% +0.05% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:28:26 $40.66 +0.22% +0.27% +0.25% +1.01% +1.84% +2.68% -0.07% +0.02% WIN
2025-02-12 09:29:30 $39.56 +0.08% -0.48% -0.94% -1.23% -0.05% +1.14% -1.39% +0.08% WIN
2025-02-11 09:25:19 $41.29 +0.22% -0.01% +0.34% -0.18% -0.19% +0.63% -0.07% +0.15% WIN
2025-02-10 09:27:07 $42.38 +0.09% +0.19% +0.37% +0.54% -0.90% +0.92% -0.12% -0.02% WIN
2025-02-07 09:29:04 $42.33 +0.34% +0.12% +0.14% -0.38% +0.21% +0.83% -0.93% +0.09% WIN
2025-02-06 09:27:42 $43.19 +0.21% +0.65% +0.67% +0.65% +0.42% +1.25% +0.09% +0.30% WIN
2025-02-05 09:25:51 $42.51 +0.71% +0.49% +1.01% +1.11% +1.91% +2.92% +0.09% +0.52% WIN
2025-02-04 09:28:54 $40.05 -0.04% +0.12% +0.32% +0.30% +3.10% +3.23% -0.12% +0.10% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:26:31 $41.57 -0.26% +0.05% -0.21% -0.65% -1.49% +1.66% -0.75% -0.17% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:27:09 $40.9 +0.22% +0.32% +0.83% +0.24% -2.44% +0.90% -0.02% - WIN
2025-01-30 09:25:57 $40.96 -0.22% +0.15% +0.54% +0.55% -0.27% +0.97% -0.24% -0.02% LOSS
2025-01-29 09:28:20 $41.0 -0.12% -0.32% +0.24% -0.20% -1.54% +0.56% -0.59% -0.02% LOSS
2025-01-28 09:26:10 $40.17 +0.17% +0.67% +0.47% -0.07% +1.10% +1.26% -0.63% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-27 09:29:49 $40.61 -0.55% -0.17% -0.86% -0.69% +0.49% +0.95% -0.95% +0.02% LOSS
2025-01-24 09:25:57 $38.77 -0.06% -0.30% -0.26% +0.77% +1.47% +1.81% -0.54% -0.10% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:25:52 $38.85 -0.26% +0.24% +0.06% -0.08% +0.21% +0.68% -0.64% -0.51% LOSS
2025-01-22 09:25:04 $40.39 -0.27% -0.47% -0.53% -0.50% -1.34% +0.20% -0.69% -0.12% LOSS
2025-01-21 09:27:27 $40.4 -0.69% -0.54% -0.62% -0.09% +0.12% +0.89% -0.94% -0.05% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:26:31 $39.74 -0.08% -0.48% -0.45% +0.11% -0.91% +0.25% -0.65% +0.13% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 62.5% Baseline on TMF

The 62.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TMF's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TMF Strategy →

Why Analyze TMF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TMF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TMF historically offers an average upside of +1.64% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TMF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 62.5%, TMF shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TMF performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +252.34%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.