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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$TMF

Trade-Ideas alerts 59.5% at EOD n=857 2022-01-03 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Apr 16, 2009
Total alerts
857
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · EOD
59.5%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · EOD
+208.39%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+1.51%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading TMF on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 45.3%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.25%
Avg Loser: -0.25%
Best: +1.66%
Worst: -2.04%
Trades: 387/417

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.7%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.43%
Avg Loser: -0.42%
Best: +2.36%
Worst: -2.68%
Trades: 399/426

30MIN

Win Rate: 46.8%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.61%
Avg Loser: -0.59%
Best: +3.20%
Worst: -3.79%
Trades: 400/439

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.4%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.84%
Avg Loser: -0.87%
Best: +4.31%
Worst: -4.36%
Trades: 414/433

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 59.5%
Avg Gain: +208.39%
Avg Winner: +351.38%
Avg Loser: -1.37%
Best: +955.21%
Worst: -6.58%
Trades: 509/341

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.51%
Best MFE: +9.43%
Avg Time to MFE: 144 min

On average, TMF alerts reach +1.51% profit potential within 144 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.53%
Worst MAE: -4.45%
Avg Time to MAE: 24 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.53%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.82:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.82x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 857 alerts, TMF typically reaches +1.51% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 857
Gap Up % 42.4%
Avg Gap -0.00%
Best Gap +1.06%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TMF alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $26.07 -0.08% +0.25% +0.25% +0.98% -1.88% +1.41% -0.38% -0.04% LOSS
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $25.13 -0.08% -0.32% -0.08% +0.12% +2.75% +4.14% -0.88% -0.16% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $26.05 -0.15% -0.54% -0.55% -1.19% -1.42% +0.00% -0.15% -0.12% LOSS
2026-09-29 09:25:00 $26.38 -0.20% -0.81% -0.61% -0.68% -1.18% +0.08% +0.00% -0.04% LOSS
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $26.52 -0.25% +0.49% +0.55% -0.19% -0.11% +0.73% -0.25% -0.15% LOSS
2026-09-25 09:25:00 $27.21 +0.25% +0.21% -0.21% -1.26% -0.01% +0.47% -0.04% +0.07% WIN
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $28.26 +0.25% +0.42% +0.53% -0.07% -3.22% +0.88% -0.02% +0.14% WIN
2026-09-23 09:25:00 $29.5 +0.15% -0.20% -1.64% -1.97% -3.59% +0.25% +0.10% +0.10% WIN
2026-09-22 09:25:00 $30.0 +0.03% -0.23% -0.23% -0.29% -0.47% +0.30% +0.30% +0.00% WIN
2026-09-21 09:25:00 $30.18 -0.20% -0.23% -0.53% -0.31% +0.17% +0.36% -0.70% -0.03% LOSS
2026-09-18 09:25:00 $29.88 -0.04% -0.40% -0.49% -0.89% -0.81% +0.06% +0.03% +0.03% LOSS
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $30.05 -0.07% -0.33% +0.08% +0.10% +0.80% +0.83% -0.53% -0.10% LOSS
2026-09-16 09:25:00 $29.38 +0.14% +0.50% +0.37% +0.35% -0.13% +2.25% -0.13% +0.08% WIN
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $29.05 -0.14% +0.14% -0.07% +0.07% +0.38% +0.79% -0.31% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-14 09:25:00 $29.29 -0.03% -0.09% -0.34% -1.35% +0.44% +1.91% -1.35% +0.00% LOSS
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $29.82 -0.04% +0.52% -0.10% -0.37% -1.71% +0.55% -0.22% +0.03% LOSS
2026-09-10 09:25:00 $29.44 +0.25% -0.02% +0.07% +1.02% -0.48% +1.60% -0.12% +0.17% WIN
2026-09-09 09:25:00 $30.84 +0.07% +0.13% +0.23% -0.47% -1.62% +0.39% -0.13% +0.03% WIN
2026-09-08 09:25:00 $31.14 -0.19% -0.69% -0.05% -0.80% -0.94% +0.01% -0.01% -0.08% LOSS
2026-09-04 09:25:00 $30.88 +0.39% +0.60% +0.81% +0.92% +0.00% +1.04% +0.00% +0.32% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

Beat the 59.5% Baseline on TMF

The 59.5% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and push TMF's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TMF Strategy →

Why Analyze TMF with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TMF. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TMF historically offers an average upside of +1.51% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TMF Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 59.5%, TMF shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TMF performs best on the EOD (End of Day) timeframe (Avg Gain: +208.39%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.