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TMHC Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 4 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-05 → 2024-03-21

⚠️ Small sample size (4 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Common Stock OPERATIVE BUILDERS (SIC 1531)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Apr 10, 2013 🔗 www.taylormorrison.com
💰 Market Cap: $6.08B 👥 Employees: 3,000
Taylor Morrison Home Corp is an American residential construction company engaged in residential homebuilding and the development of lifestyle communities. It designs, builds, and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes in traditionally high growth markets for entry level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers. The company has four reportable segments: East, Central, West, and Financial Services. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from its West Segment.
📊
4
Total Alerts
🎯
75.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.18%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.16%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: +0.18%
Avg Winner: +0.91%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: +1.44%
Worst: -2.04%
Trades: 3/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 75.0%
Avg Gain: +0.40%
Avg Winner: +0.97%
Avg Loser: -1.32%
Best: +1.49%
Worst: -1.32%
Trades: 3/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.08%
Avg Winner: +1.17%
Avg Loser: -1.01%
Best: +1.32%
Worst: -1.70%
Trades: 2/2

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.71%
Avg Winner: +0.80%
Avg Loser: -2.23%
Best: +1.34%
Worst: -3.19%
Trades: 2/2

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.10%
Avg Winner: +0.58%
Avg Loser: -2.78%
Best: +1.07%
Worst: -5.06%
Trades: 2/2

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.16%
Best MFE: +1.91%
Avg Time to MFE: 102 min

On average, TMHC alerts reach +1.16% profit potential within 102 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.22%
Worst MAE: -2.61%
Avg Time to MAE: 10 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.22%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

5.22:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 5.22x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 4 alerts, TMHC typically reaches +1.16% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 0.9% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 4
Gap Up % 75.0%
Avg Gap +0.43%
Best Gap +1.49%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OPERATIVE BUILDERS

How TMHC compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TMHC: +0.18% Sector: +0.15% +0.03%
EOD Gain
TMHC: -1.10% Sector: -0.42% -0.68%
Avg MFE
TMHC: +1.16% Sector: +2.02% -0.86%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TMHC alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-21 09:27:04 $59.61 +1.44% +1.49% +1.01% +1.34% +1.07% +1.91% +0.69% +1.49% WIN
2023-10-30 09:25:00 $37.89 +0.91% +0.71% -0.32% -1.27% -0.50% +1.48% +0.91% +1.19% WIN
2023-06-20 09:26:00 $46.8 +0.38% +0.71% +1.32% +0.26% +0.09% +1.75% +0.13% +0.19% WIN
2022-05-05 09:25:00 $29.46 -2.04% -1.32% -1.70% -3.19% -5.06% -0.51% -2.61% -1.15% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 75.0% Baseline on TMHC

The 75.0% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TMHC's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TMHC Strategy →

Why Analyze TMHC with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TMHC. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TMHC historically offers an average upside of +1.16% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TMHC Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 75.0%, TMHC shows strong follow-through, making it a prime candidate for momentum strategies.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TMHC performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.18%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.