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TMV Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 165 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-04-12 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Apr 16, 2009
📊
165
Total Alerts
🎯
49.1%
Win Rate (30MIN)
💰
-0.01%
Avg Gain (30MIN)
🚀
+1.61%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.5%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.27%
Avg Loser: -0.31%
Best: +0.72%
Worst: -0.96%
Trades: 79/80

15MIN

Win Rate: 46.6%
Avg Gain: -0.04%
Avg Winner: +0.45%
Avg Loser: -0.47%
Best: +1.91%
Worst: -1.47%
Trades: 76/85

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.1%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.62%
Avg Loser: -0.68%
Best: +3.67%
Worst: -2.49%
Trades: 80/75

60MIN

Win Rate: 47.2%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.94%
Avg Loser: -0.92%
Best: +3.29%
Worst: -4.55%
Trades: 77/84

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 46.1%
Avg Gain: -4.54%
Avg Winner: +1.68%
Avg Loser: -10.07%
Best: +6.86%
Worst: -76.76%
Trades: 76/87

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.61%
Best MFE: +9.67%
Avg Time to MFE: 157 min

On average, TMV alerts reach +1.61% profit potential within 157 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.65%
Worst MAE: -5.32%
Avg Time to MAE: 32 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.65%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.49:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.49x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 165 alerts, TMV typically reaches +1.61% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.3% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 165
Gap Up % 37.0%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +0.89%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TMV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:28:58 $37.11 +0.24% +0.46% +0.24% -0.16% +0.78% +0.86% -1.01% -0.08% WIN
2025-02-13 09:26:00 $38.67 -0.04% -0.28% -0.13% -0.63% -1.89% +0.28% -0.39% +0.23% LOSS
2025-02-12 09:29:04 $39.94 -0.28% +0.28% +0.65% +0.95% -0.10% +1.15% -0.34% -0.28% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:29:06 $37.29 -0.27% -0.08% -0.08% +0.40% -0.16% +0.96% -0.58% -0.11% LOSS
2025-02-06 09:26:44 $36.56 -0.16% -0.47% -0.55% -0.83% -0.25% +0.77% -1.20% -0.30% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:08 $37.13 -0.46% -0.32% -0.94% -1.21% -1.80% +0.05% +0.05% -0.35% LOSS
2025-02-03 09:29:00 $38.1 -0.05% -0.08% +0.01% +0.52% +1.42% +2.60% -1.97% -0.21% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:28:17 $38.7 -0.21% -0.28% -0.65% -0.08% +2.25% +3.33% -0.88% +0.10% LOSS
2025-01-30 09:28:55 $38.65 -0.05% -0.31% -0.62% -0.57% +0.41% +0.80% -0.98% +0.03% LOSS
2025-01-23 09:25:13 $40.75 +0.47% -0.17% +0.02% +0.12% -0.12% +0.93% -0.64% +0.47% WIN
2025-01-21 09:29:51 $39.24 +0.70% +0.39% +0.48% -0.09% -0.03% +0.92% -0.03% -0.01% WIN
2025-01-15 09:28:30 $40.79 +0.08% -0.12% -0.17% -0.64% -0.10% +1.13% -1.01% -0.05% WIN
2025-01-14 09:28:11 $43.08 -0.28% -0.07% +0.41% +0.44% -0.28% +0.95% -0.65% -0.16% LOSS
2025-01-13 09:29:01 $42.53 +0.28% +0.05% +0.14% +0.92% +0.54% +1.72% -0.42% +0.05% WIN
2025-01-10 09:27:06 $42.88 +0.35% -0.84% -0.37% -1.48% -0.65% +0.37% -0.02% +0.05% WIN
2025-01-08 09:29:09 $42.5 +0.45% -0.14% -0.40% -0.96% -2.00% +0.47% +0.09% +0.09% WIN
2025-01-06 09:28:59 $40.31 -0.02% +0.20% - +0.97% +0.27% +1.13% -0.32% -0.10% LOSS
2024-12-30 09:28:01 $39.08 -0.10% +0.03% -0.40% -0.61% -0.08% +0.46% -0.79% -0.20% LOSS
2024-12-20 09:27:30 $38.11 +0.18% +0.22% +0.73% +0.94% +0.97% +1.04% -0.18% +0.08% WIN
2024-12-19 09:25:12 $38.79 -0.15% +0.18% +0.59% +0.72% +0.57% +1.73% -0.54% -0.21% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TMV Shows Negative Expectancy

With 49.1% win rate and -0.01% average gain, TMV alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TMV for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TMV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TMV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TMV historically offers an average upside of +1.61% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TMV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 49.1%, TMV shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TMV may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TMV shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.01%). This suggests TMV is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.