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Ticker Report — Active Last signal ·

$TMV

Trade-Ideas alerts 48.9% at 30-min n=237 2022-04-12 → 2026-10-02

🏢 Company Profile

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
📍 NYSE Arca 📅 IPO: Apr 16, 2009
Total alerts
237
Trade-Ideas signal history
Win rate · 30MIN
48.9%
Best timeframe baseline
Avg gain · 30MIN
-0.02%
Per-alert expectancy
Avg MFE
+1.39%
Max potential excursion

Practice trading TMV on historical setups — browse all patterns across all tickers →

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 48.1%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +0.23%
Avg Loser: -0.25%
Best: +0.72%
Worst: -0.96%
Trades: 113/115

15MIN

Win Rate: 45.5%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +0.39%
Avg Loser: -0.39%
Best: +1.91%
Worst: -1.47%
Trades: 107/122

30MIN

Win Rate: 48.9%
Avg Gain: -0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.51%
Avg Loser: -0.57%
Best: +3.67%
Worst: -2.49%
Trades: 115/111

60MIN

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -0.06%
Avg Winner: +0.81%
Avg Loser: -0.78%
Best: +3.29%
Worst: -4.55%
Trades: 104/127

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.3%
Avg Gain: -3.18%
Avg Winner: +1.50%
Avg Loser: -7.06%
Best: +6.86%
Worst: -76.76%
Trades: 105/129

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.39%
Best MFE: +9.67%
Avg Time to MFE: 153 min

On average, TMV alerts reach +1.39% profit potential within 153 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.56%
Worst MAE: -5.32%
Avg Time to MAE: 34 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.56%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.49:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.49x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 237 alerts, TMV typically reaches +1.39% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.1% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 237
Gap Up % 40.1%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +0.89%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TMV alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2026-10-02 09:25:00 $49.01 +0.39% +0.10% +0.11% -0.67% +2.29% +3.00% -1.06% +0.35% WIN
2026-10-01 09:25:00 $51.02 -0.14% +0.20% +0.02% -0.22% -2.72% +0.74% -0.68% -0.04% LOSS
2026-09-30 09:25:00 $49.22 +0.06% +0.47% +0.47% +1.20% +1.36% +2.51% +0.04% +0.10% WIN
2026-09-28 09:25:00 $48.33 +0.16% -0.46% -0.58% +0.14% +0.21% +1.48% -0.70% +0.14% WIN
2026-09-24 09:25:00 $45.34 -0.04% -0.20% -0.37% +0.24% +3.40% +3.42% -0.68% +0.07% LOSS
2026-09-17 09:25:00 $43.58 +0.05% +0.32% -0.14% -0.16% -0.89% +0.53% -0.07% +0.07% WIN
2026-09-15 09:25:00 $45.03 +0.20% +0.00% +0.21% +0.04% -0.16% +0.51% -0.64% +0.02% WIN
2026-09-11 09:25:00 $43.75 +0.37% -0.20% +0.41% +0.70% +2.06% +2.23% -0.25% +0.32% WIN
2026-07-15 09:25:00 $39.96 +0.18% -0.00% -0.38% -0.30% -0.28% +0.18% +0.15% +0.15% WIN
2026-07-09 09:25:00 $39.67 +0.04% +0.00% -0.05% -0.08% -0.71% +0.10% +0.10% +0.00% WIN
2026-07-01 09:25:00 $37.9 +0.16% -0.03% -0.26% -0.70% -0.11% +0.47% +0.29% +0.18% WIN
2026-06-25 09:25:00 $35.55 +0.11% +0.00% -0.42% -0.14% +1.04% +1.18% -0.53% +0.20% WIN
2026-06-24 09:25:00 $36.15 -0.14% -0.18% -0.36% -0.44% -0.89% +0.06% -0.14% -0.03% LOSS
2026-06-18 09:25:00 $36.55 -0.49% -0.36% -0.19% -0.14% +0.98% +1.24% -0.63% -0.30% LOSS
2026-06-15 09:25:00 $37.83 +0.05% -0.13% -0.15% -0.29% +0.82% +0.98% -0.53% -0.03% WIN
2026-06-10 09:25:00 $38.91 +0.03% +0.05% -0.05% -0.31% +0.75% +1.54% -0.57% +0.03% WIN
2026-06-05 09:25:00 $39.05 +0.03% -0.18% -0.05% -0.23% -0.20% +0.31% -0.28% +0.10% WIN
2026-05-18 09:25:00 $41.14 -0.06% +0.01% -0.66% +0.32% +0.46% +1.39% -0.75% +0.02% LOSS
2026-05-08 09:25:00 $37.77 -0.03% -0.45% -0.50% -0.53% +0.13% +0.29% -0.71% +0.03% LOSS
2026-05-06 09:25:00 $37.75 +0.05% +0.04% +0.16% +0.15% -0.05% +0.52% -0.41% +0.00% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠ TMV Shows Negative Expectancy

With 48.9% win rate and -0.02% average gain, TMV alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TMV for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TMV with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TMV. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TMV historically offers an average upside of +1.39% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TMV Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 48.9%, TMV shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TMV may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TMV shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 30MIN at -0.02%). This suggests TMV is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.