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TOST Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 36 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-02-16 → 2025-01-10

⚠️ Small sample size (36 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Sep 22, 2021 🔗 www.toasttab.com
💰 Market Cap: $19.87B 👥 Employees: 5,700
Toast is an end-to-end technology platform designed to address the complex needs of the restaurant industry. The company generates point-in-time revenue through sales of its restaurant-grade hardware and recurring revenue in the form of take rates on restaurant transaction volume as well as subscriptions to its software solutions. As of fiscal 2024, the company provided services to 134,000 restaurant locations primarily in the US. Toast's typical customer is a mid-market restaurant generating slightly more than $1 million in revenue annually.
📊
36
Total Alerts
🎯
41.7%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.27%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.47%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 41.7%
Avg Gain: -0.27%
Avg Winner: +0.74%
Avg Loser: -0.99%
Best: +3.81%
Worst: -4.96%
Trades: 15/21

15MIN

Win Rate: 38.9%
Avg Gain: -0.88%
Avg Winner: +1.82%
Avg Loser: -2.73%
Best: +4.20%
Worst: -8.80%
Trades: 14/21

30MIN

Win Rate: 30.6%
Avg Gain: -0.56%
Avg Winner: +2.80%
Avg Loser: -2.04%
Best: +6.32%
Worst: -6.64%
Trades: 11/25

60MIN

Win Rate: 33.3%
Avg Gain: -0.79%
Avg Winner: +2.03%
Avg Loser: -2.30%
Best: +4.88%
Worst: -5.67%
Trades: 12/23

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 41.7%
Avg Gain: -1.17%
Avg Winner: +2.03%
Avg Loser: -3.45%
Best: +5.31%
Worst: -8.10%
Trades: 15/21

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.47%
Best MFE: +7.73%
Avg Time to MFE: 62 min

On average, TOST alerts reach +2.47% profit potential within 62 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -1.25%
Worst MAE: -8.01%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 1.25%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.97:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 36 alerts, TOST typically reaches +2.47% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 2.0% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 36
Gap Up % 44.4%
Avg Gap -0.03%
Best Gap +1.59%

🏭 Sector Comparison: SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

How TOST compares to 42 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TOST: -0.27% Sector: -0.45% +0.18%
EOD Gain
TOST: -1.17% Sector: +1109.54% -1110.71%
Avg MFE
TOST: +2.47% Sector: +6.73% -4.26%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TOST alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-01-10 09:29:56 $36.1 -0.80% - -0.76% -1.34% -1.11% +0.55% -1.41% +0.33% LOSS
2024-11-22 09:25:29 $42.51 -0.12% +1.18% +0.75% +0.64% +0.54% +1.74% -0.26% +0.21% LOSS
2024-11-21 09:29:41 $42.05 +0.55% +1.09% +1.15% +0.93% +0.74% +2.95% -0.10% +0.48% WIN
2024-11-20 09:29:52 $42.54 -0.52% -0.59% -1.36% -1.39% -0.09% +0.73% -0.82% +0.45% LOSS
2024-11-08 09:28:47 $37.96 -4.96% -7.80% -4.50% -5.67% -1.26% +1.34% -1.21% +1.13% LOSS
2024-11-01 09:27:17 $30.25 +0.53% +1.11% +2.02% +2.84% +2.41% +4.36% -0.66% -0.40% WIN
2024-03-07 09:25:43 $25.29 +0.12% -0.36% -0.59% -1.74% -1.86% +1.34% -0.79% -0.55% WIN
2024-02-20 09:28:24 $21.71 +0.51% +0.16% -1.59% -0.23% +0.32% +1.47% -1.75% -0.88% WIN
2024-02-16 09:28:03 $21.29 +0.52% +3.06% +3.92% +2.18% +5.31% +6.43% -1.55% +0.28% WIN
2024-02-15 09:26:23 $20.36 +1.08% +0.20% +0.44% +0.44% -5.70% +1.38% -0.34% +0.10% WIN
2024-02-07 09:26:32 $19.33 -2.41% -3.31% -3.47% -1.37% -0.26% +0.05% -0.05% -0.67% LOSS
2023-12-06 09:29:00 $14.88 -0.94% -1.44% -0.60% - +1.68% +4.00% -2.89% -0.40% LOSS
2023-11-30 09:25:00 $15.4 +0.13% -1.20% -1.04% -1.75% -3.44% +0.19% -0.58% -0.32% WIN
2023-11-14 09:28:00 $14.28 +1.65% +3.71% +2.55% +1.33% +3.01% +4.66% -0.14% +0.14% WIN
2023-11-10 09:26:00 $14.23 -0.28% -0.04% -0.74% -1.23% -0.84% +1.23% -0.84% -0.42% LOSS
2023-11-08 09:26:00 $14.28 -0.21% -1.12% -0.84% -1.02% +4.27% +5.81% -2.94% +0.14% LOSS
2023-10-27 09:29:00 $16.4 +0.12% -2.38% -2.45% -2.13% -3.84% +0.85% -0.24% - WIN
2023-10-04 09:25:00 $17.53 -0.29% -1.23% -1.71% -2.51% -0.68% -0.06% -0.51% -0.17% LOSS
2023-10-02 09:25:00 $17.88 +0.29% +3.19% +4.19% +3.33% +2.46% +4.53% -1.79% -0.92% WIN
2023-09-06 09:25:00 $22.6 +0.04% -1.42% -2.26% -4.58% -5.44% +1.24% -0.89% +0.27% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TOST Shows Negative Expectancy

With 41.7% win rate and -0.27% average gain, TOST alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TOST for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TOST with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TOST. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TOST historically offers an average upside of +2.47% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TOST Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 41.7%, TOST shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TOST may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TOST shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.27%). This suggests TOST is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.