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TPH Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 2 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-05-05 → 2024-03-21

⚠️ Small sample size (2 alerts). Statistics may have high variance. Interpret with caution.

🏢 Company Profile

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. OPERATIVE BUILDERS (SIC 1531)
📍 NYSE 📅 IPO: Jan 31, 2013 🔗 www.tripointehomes.com
💰 Market Cap: $2.91B 👥 Employees: 1,750
Tri Pointe Homes Inc is an American construction company that focuses on residential construction. The company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes in different states across the United States. Its operations are organized into two principal businesses: homebuilding. which generates key revenue, and financial services. The homebuilding business has three reportable operating segments, based on the geographical layout of the markets, and includes West region, Central region, and East region. The company's financial services operation is comprised of its Tri Pointe Connect mortgage financing operations, Tri Pointe Assurance title and escrow services operations, and Tri Pointe Advantage property and casualty insurance agency operations.
📊
2
Total Alerts
🎯
50.0%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
-0.19%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+1.50%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.19%
Avg Winner: +1.59%
Avg Loser: -1.96%
Best: +1.59%
Worst: -1.96%
Trades: 1/1

15MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.61%
Avg Winner: +2.34%
Avg Loser: -1.13%
Best: +2.34%
Worst: -1.13%
Trades: 1/1

30MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: +0.12%
Avg Winner: +1.98%
Avg Loser: -1.74%
Best: +1.98%
Worst: -1.74%
Trades: 1/1

60MIN

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -0.00%
Avg Winner: +2.68%
Avg Loser: -2.68%
Best: +2.68%
Worst: -2.68%
Trades: 1/1

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 50.0%
Avg Gain: -1.36%
Avg Winner: +2.06%
Avg Loser: -4.78%
Best: +2.06%
Worst: -4.78%
Trades: 1/1

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +1.50%
Best MFE: +3.40%
Avg Time to MFE: 54 min

On average, TPH alerts reach +1.50% profit potential within 54 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.77%
Worst MAE: -2.71%
Avg Time to MAE: 5 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.77%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

1.95:1

Good risk/reward - favorable for momentum trading.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 2 alerts, TPH typically reaches +1.50% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.2% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 2
Gap Up % 50.0%
Avg Gap -0.36%
Best Gap +1.45%

🏭 Sector Comparison: OPERATIVE BUILDERS

How TPH compares to 9 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TPH: -0.19% Sector: +0.15% -0.33%
EOD Gain
TPH: -1.36% Sector: -0.42% -0.94%
Avg MFE
TPH: +1.50% Sector: +2.02% -0.52%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TPH alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2024-03-21 09:25:23 $35.86 +1.59% +2.34% +1.98% +2.68% +2.06% +3.40% +1.17% +1.45% WIN
2022-05-05 09:25:00 $22.18 -1.96% -1.13% -1.74% -2.68% -4.78% -0.41% -2.71% -2.16% LOSS

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

⚠️ TPH Shows Negative Expectancy

With 50.0% win rate and -0.19% average gain, TPH alerts have historically faded. Use the app to find specific filters that might reverse this pattern, or consider TPH for short-selling strategies.

📉 Turn Negative Expectancy Positive →

Why Analyze TPH with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TPH. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TPH historically offers an average upside of +1.50% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TPH Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.0%, TPH shows negative momentum - the stock tends to fade after alerts. This pattern suggests TPH may be better suited for contrarian strategies or avoiding altogether.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

⚠️ Caution Advised: TPH shows negative expectancy across all tested intraday timeframes (Best: 5MIN at -0.19%). This suggests TPH is prone to fading after the open, making it a potential candidate for short-selling or quick scalps only.