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TSLA Stock Analysis

Data source: Trade-Ideas Alerts | 759 alerts analyzed | Backtest period: 2022-01-03 → 2025-02-14

🏢 Company Profile

📍 NASDAQ 📅 IPO: Jun 29, 2010 🔗 www.tesla.com
💰 Market Cap: $1.10T 👥 Employees: 125,665
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of autonomous driving software. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling more affordable vehicles, a sports car, and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2024 were a little below 1.8 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network.
📊
759
Total Alerts
🎯
50.3%
Win Rate (5MIN)
💰
+0.02%
Avg Gain (5MIN)
🚀
+2.29%
Avg MFE (Max Potential)

📈 Performance by Timeframe

5MIN

Win Rate: 50.3%
Avg Gain: +0.02%
Avg Winner: +0.62%
Avg Loser: -0.58%
Best: +2.31%
Worst: -3.12%
Trades: 381/375

15MIN

Win Rate: 48.0%
Avg Gain: -0.03%
Avg Winner: +1.11%
Avg Loser: -1.08%
Best: +4.37%
Worst: -5.21%
Trades: 363/394

30MIN

Win Rate: 49.4%
Avg Gain: +0.00%
Avg Winner: +1.36%
Avg Loser: -1.32%
Best: +6.91%
Worst: -7.10%
Trades: 374/383

60MIN

Win Rate: 48.7%
Avg Gain: -0.01%
Avg Winner: +1.65%
Avg Loser: -1.59%
Best: +8.33%
Worst: -7.66%
Trades: 369/386

EOD (End of Day)

Win Rate: 44.9%
Avg Gain: -8.09%
Avg Winner: +2.34%
Avg Loser: -16.60%
Best: +14.35%
Worst: -69.57%
Trades: 341/418

🚀 Max Favorable / Adverse Excursion (MFE/MAE)

Institutional-grade metrics showing the maximum profit potential and risk for each alert.

📈 MFE (Max Profit Potential)

Average MFE: +2.29%
Best MFE: +14.67%
Avg Time to MFE: 126 min

On average, TSLA alerts reach +2.29% profit potential within 126 minutes.

📉 MAE (Max Drawdown Risk)

Average MAE: -0.87%
Worst MAE: -5.80%
Avg Time to MAE: 14 min

Before reaching MFE, expect an average drawdown of 0.87%.

⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio

2.63:1

Excellent risk/reward - potential gain is 2.63x the typical drawdown.

💡 Trading Insight: Based on 759 alerts, TSLA typically reaches +2.29% profit before pulling back. Consider setting profit targets around 1.8% to capture most of the move.

🌅 Premarket Gap Analysis (9:25 → 9:30)

Total Gaps Analyzed 759
Gap Up % 44.5%
Avg Gap -0.02%
Best Gap +1.19%

🏭 Sector Comparison: MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES

How TSLA compares to 11 other tickers in the same sector.

5-Min Gain
TSLA: +0.02% Sector: -0.18% +0.20%
EOD Gain
TSLA: -8.12% Sector: +1047.62% -1055.74%
Avg MFE
TSLA: +2.29% Sector: +2.85% -0.56%

📋 Last 20 Alerts

Historical TSLA alerts with performance metrics calculated from 1-minute price data. Each row shows the actual price movement at different timeframes after the alert.

Date Time Price 5min 15min 30min 60min EOD MFE MAE Gap Result
2025-02-14 09:29:40 $360.41 -0.91% -1.25% -1.82% -2.31% -1.27% +0.44% -0.74% +0.06% LOSS
2025-02-13 09:29:14 $345.98 +0.06% +0.89% +0.56% +2.59% +2.88% +3.67% -0.90% -0.28% WIN
2025-02-12 09:29:27 $329.99 +0.26% +2.27% +1.12% +2.52% +1.98% +4.97% -0.26% -0.02% WIN
2025-02-11 09:29:51 $345.85 +0.85% +0.65% -0.37% -0.49% -5.02% +1.02% -0.72% -0.01% WIN
2025-02-10 09:25:34 $357.29 -0.77% -1.40% -0.61% +1.07% -1.84% +1.51% -1.90% -0.30% LOSS
2025-02-07 09:28:57 $370.58 +1.54% +1.32% +1.59% +0.44% -2.42% +2.69% -0.16% -0.11% WIN
2025-02-06 09:27:46 $372.53 -0.27% -1.42% -1.59% -1.33% +0.48% +0.77% -0.14% +0.13% LOSS
2025-02-05 09:25:33 $387.0 -0.46% -0.68% -0.38% -1.60% -2.28% +0.36% -0.59% +0.13% LOSS
2025-02-04 09:29:31 $382.54 +0.74% +1.11% +2.06% +0.34% +2.53% +3.00% -0.30% +0.02% WIN
2025-02-03 09:28:40 $387.0 -0.37% -0.36% -1.34% -0.63% -0.86% +0.56% -0.43% -0.08% LOSS
2025-01-31 09:28:24 $401.25 +1.00% +2.25% +3.04% +3.38% +0.83% +4.67% +0.01% +0.07% WIN
2025-01-30 09:29:40 $410.78 -1.80% -3.76% -5.84% -4.76% -2.56% +0.42% -0.38% - LOSS
2025-01-29 09:29:30 $395.15 +0.13% -0.39% -0.45% -0.80% -1.53% +0.87% -0.29% +0.02% WIN
2025-01-28 09:28:51 $396.43 -1.15% -2.45% -1.19% -0.85% +0.42% +1.05% -2.50% +0.12% LOSS
2025-01-27 09:25:47 $391.07 +2.31% +2.13% +3.33% +2.11% +1.55% +3.99% -0.04% +0.95% WIN
2025-01-24 09:26:00 $414.58 +0.49% +0.06% +0.71% -0.05% -1.93% +1.04% -0.69% -0.03% WIN
2025-01-23 09:27:56 $416.3 +0.66% -0.32% -0.60% -0.48% -0.94% +1.06% -0.27% -0.06% WIN
2025-01-22 09:27:05 $416.7 +2.20% +1.35% +0.38% +1.42% -0.38% +2.71% -0.14% +0.03% WIN
2025-01-21 09:25:56 $434.49 -2.88% -5.21% -4.95% -5.36% -2.40% +0.08% -0.17% -0.43% LOSS
2025-01-17 09:29:26 $422.02 +0.27% +0.32% +0.70% +1.58% +1.06% +4.20% -0.54% -0.12% WIN

Table Metrics Explained:

  • 5min/15min/30min/60min/EOD: Price change at each timeframe (calculated from real minute-by-minute data)
  • MFE: Maximum Favorable Excursion - highest profit potential reached during the day
  • MAE: Maximum Adverse Excursion - worst drawdown experienced before reaching MFE
  • Gap: Premarket price gap from 9:25 AM to 9:30 AM market open
  • Result: WIN if 5min change > 0%, LOSS otherwise

🚀 Beat the 50.3% Baseline on TSLA

The 50.3% win rate is just the raw starting point. Launch the app to apply filters (Volume, RSI, Time) and see if you can push TSLA's performance to 75%+.

Optimize TSLA Strategy →

Why Analyze TSLA with FILTRIX?

🛡️ Realistic Entry Simulation

We don't inflate stats. Our analysis tracks only the first alert of the day for TSLA. This simulates a true "Gap & Go" entry at pre-market hours (9:25-9:30 AM), avoiding the trap of chasing a stock that has already extended.

💰 Max Potential (MFE) Analysis

How much is left in the move? On winning days, TSLA historically offers an average upside of +2.29% intraday. Our data helps you distinguish between a quick scalp and a runner.

📊 TSLA Momentum Personality

With a baseline win rate of 50.3%, TSLA shows neutral behavior, suggesting the need for additional volume confirmation.

⏱️ Optimized Exit Timing

Don't guess when to sell. Our backtests show TSLA performs best on the 5MIN timeframe (Avg Gain: +0.02%), signaling that gains often fade later in the session.